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5 hours ago, Andreas said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10937990/coronavirus-infect-60-percent-worlds-population/

 

This is probably the darkest prediction. 60% of the world's population to get infected. Let's say the death-rate remains low at 3%, gives us 3/100 * 60/100 * 7.8b = 140mn deaths. This should be the worst situation, we won't get there tho.

Death percentage would be higher maybe as health agencies get over stretched.

 

 

Time to close borders to travelers from china

Edited by Lordmandeep

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17 hours ago, Andreas said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10937990/coronavirus-infect-60-percent-worlds-population/

 

This is probably the darkest prediction. 60% of the world's population to get infected. Let's say the death-rate remains low at 3%, gives us 3/100 * 60/100 * 7.8b = 140mn deaths. This should be the worst situation, we won't get there tho.

I'd find another source than the Sun.

 

I doubt this is going to cause the next apocalypse but even if 2% of say skilled workers get infected that's an instant global recession. 

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47 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

I'd find another source than the Sun.

 

I doubt this is going to cause the next apocalypse but even if 2% of say skilled workers get infected that's an instant global recession. 

To be fair The Sun isn't the only source with those stats. Those numbers came from the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University

 

My immune system is pretty good i think so I'd like to think i'd be fine if i did catch it. I won't be worrying just yet

  • Disbelief 1

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1 hour ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

I'd find another source than the Sun.

 

I doubt this is going to cause the next apocalypse but even if 2% of say skilled workers get infected that's an instant global recession. 

Mortality rate outside China is 0.25%

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Heard chinese officals are locking people in home and there are people found dead in the streets

 

confused. 

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On ‎2‎/‎13‎/‎2020 at 10:53 AM, Lordmandeep said:

Heard chinese officals are locking people in home and there are people found dead in the streets

 

confused. 

If true, then the Middle Ages have come back in China......

 

 

How do you say "Bring Out Your Dead" in Chinese?

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22 hours ago, AndyK said:

But it can be the common cold.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK7782/

That might be a problem;early symptoms are the same as for the common cold and some kinds of flu,so it might take a while for people to go to a doctor and be detected.

On the other hand, if everybody who came down with a cold or the flu rushed to see a doctor, the medical system would collapse under the strain.

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Now many economist think this is going to crash the Chinese Economy, which would cause a World Wide Recession. This is going to have big impace worldwide,no matter what.

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17 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Now many economist think this is going to crash the Chinese Economy, which would cause a World Wide Recession. This is going to have big impace worldwide,no matter what.

Quite a few, supply chains are already drying up. Motor manufacturers are talking about suspending production.

 

Globalisation not all it's cracked up to be, should have thought more about supporting local suppliers rather than the bottom line.

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On ‎2‎/‎14‎/‎2020 at 1:58 PM, AndyK said:

Quite a few, supply chains are already drying up. Motor manufacturers are talking about suspending production.

 

Globalisation not all it's cracked up to be, should have thought more about supporting local suppliers rather than the bottom line.

There has always been globalization. No country has even been able to shield itself from overseas economic impacts.

Isolationism never works. you can shut yourself in, you cannot shut the world out.

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15 minutes ago, dudalb said:

There has always been globalization. No country has even been able to shield itself from overseas economic impacts.

Isolationism never works. you can shut yourself in, you cannot shut the world out.

No there hasn't, your confusing global trade with globalised supply chains.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, AndyK said:

No there hasn't, your confusing global trade with globalised supply chains.

 

 

 

 

 

Distinction without a difference. Supply chains for some products have always been globalized, simply because the raw materials for a product might not be present in another country. Not saying that is the case here, but I think the genie is out of the bottle and cannot be put back in.

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32 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Distinction without a difference.

I feel it could a bit of difference.

 

Raw product will pretty much always have multiple producer location wise, if one fail for a while the rest make a bit more money but think can usually continue. Some supply chain model could potentially make it so that a single place failing would impact if not stop everything for a while.

 

Under some metrics the 1890s-1900 until 1914 were maybe having more globalization occurring than the 2000s, but supply chain wise on non luxury item complexity it was probably not the case.

 

That said yes, the genie would be really hard to be put back in, say in something complex like car making.

Edited by Barnack

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5 hours ago, Barnack said:

I feel it could a bit of difference.

 

Raw product will pretty much always have multiple producer location wise, if one fail for a while the rest make a bit more money but think can usually continue. Some supply chain model could potentially make it so that a single place failing would impact if not stop everything for a while.

 

Under some metrics the 1890s-1900 until 1914 were maybe having more globalization occurring than the 2000s, but supply chain wise on non luxury item complexity it was probably not the case.

 

That said yes, the genie would be really hard to be put back in, say in something complex like car making.

The genie is going back in the bottle.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/09/shipping-pollution

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On 2/14/2020 at 9:58 PM, AndyK said:

Quite a few, supply chains are already drying up. Motor manufacturers are talking about suspending production.

 

Globalisation not all it's cracked up to be, should have thought more about supporting local suppliers rather than the bottom line.

Its hard to do that when you know China can make your products for half the price

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2 hours ago, Ninenin said:

Its hard to do that when you know China can make your products for half the price

They can only do it for half the price because they pay half the wages, have half the health and safety requirements, half the human rights and can pollute the environment without consequence.

 

The WTO rules are all wrong, they should be set to provide a level playing field, tariffs should be tapered according to a countries industrial, humanitarian and environmental policies, not be forced to apply to every country. 

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46 minutes ago, AndyK said:

They can only do it for half the price because they pay half the wages, have half the health and safety requirements, half the human rights and can pollute the environment without consequence.

 

The WTO rules are all wrong, they should be set to provide a level playing field, tariffs should be tapered according to a countries industrial, humanitarian and environmental policies, not be forced to apply to every country. 

Completely agree with you, but its still half the price after all. People care more about their annual profits than China's working conditions 

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