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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Texas high schools are going to move their graduations back to the original dates due to "new data". That is the last week of May/first few days of June. Their excuse is that they are able to have them take place outside, as if that is some sort of consolation.

 

Good God!

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Posted (edited)
On 5/6/2020 at 7:13 AM, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

2971 (84.7k) Tue, May 5

3656 (60.8k)

2676 (70.1k) Sun

2567 (73.7k) Sat

2396 (72.5k)

1801 (59.4k)

1703 (54.0k)

1902 (50.9k)

1568 (40.5k)

1607 (45.3k) Sun

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

3602 (84.8k) Wed, May 6

2971 (84.7k)

3656 (60.8k)

2676 (70.1k) Sun

2567 (73.7k) Sat

2396 (72.5k)

1801 (59.4k)

1703 (54.0k)

1902 (50.9k)

1568 (40.5k)

Edited by a2k
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Posted (edited)

Hey, remember when Trump claimed that Google was going to start up a venture that would allow all of us to get tested at drive through locations?

 

As of last Wed, they had conducted 30,000 tests.  Nationwide.

 

 

Good times, good times.

 

EDIT:::

 

They're up to 42,000 tests as of Monday.  PROGRESS!!!

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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2 hours ago, JB33 said:

Hallelujah! 

 

In all seriousness, BC is in really good shape all things considered. No cases or deaths are a good thing but you know what I mean. My personal feeling is that it's safe to start re-opening everything.

I gotta wholeheartedly disagree with the second part there. Yea, BC is doing pretty well comparatively if you look at other provinces and states. But why should that mean re-open everything all of a sudden. (Most) people are still social distancing, the virus hasn't been eradicated. If we don't take this slowly and carefully, we're gonna be back to where we were in mid-March pretty soon. 

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20 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I gotta wholeheartedly disagree with the second part there. Yea, BC is doing pretty well comparatively if you look at other provinces and states. But why should that mean re-open everything all of a sudden. (Most) people are still social distancing, the virus hasn't been eradicated. If we don't take this slowly and carefully, we're gonna be back to where we were in mid-March pretty soon. 

Yeah sorry that was worded poorly. I meant that it's safe to at least begin the staggered, gradual process of re-opening. As opposed to not beginning the process at all.

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6 hours ago, DeeCee said:

There’s been 44 deaths in NSW. 16 have been at just one aged care facility with a further 6 at another one. 
 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-06/newmarch-house-could-have-licence-revoked-over-coronavirus/12221214

 

I remember back in early to mid-March checking the NSW Health daily updates when they would list a few details of each case. “Recently returned from USA” was a common sight.  

Here on the UK they gene sequenced patient samples of the virus and came to the conclusion that virtually all of the outbreak was from returning tourists from Spain and Italy in Early March.

 

Probably could have been stopped if they closed the airport's and ports early enough and screened returning passengers.

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Brazil, Russia and India seem to be the next big 3 hotspots after USA.

 

the tests/1M population for Brazil & India looks depressing, the actual cases are probably much bigger than what's reported.

 

 

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So I'm noticing that quite a few countries are going back to normal. Slowly but more and more business are allowed to open again. This thread moves rapidly so I couldn't catch everyone but can someone please recap to me if things are getting better overall?

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Posted (edited)

One trend i noticed in some areas hospitals are empty and not doing much waiting for a wave of COVID 19 patients that never materialized but in other areas they are overwhelmed.

 

The issue i have is that people may have certain issues but holding them off and staying at home then getting them checked out. Then it turns into something much worse and people die from something could have been mitigated. 

The chances of this increases dramatically the longer this happens.

 

Like a person having difficulty swallowing some food may think its just acid and not go to his or her doctor or the ER but may indeed have throat cancer (that happened to mom -she is fine now).

 

Think regions should have Covid 19 only hospitals and non covid 19 hospitals. 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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7 hours ago, RealLyre said:

Brazil, Russia and India seem to be the next big 3 hotspots after USA.

 

the tests/1M population for Brazil & India looks depressing, the actual cases are probably much bigger than what's reported.

 

 

Yup our (Indian) testing numbers are abysmally low. One of the lowest in the world in fact (per 1m people that is). 
 

And now that we are testing slightly more people in the last few days, new daily cases have jumped significantly. For numbers to start jumping up rather than going down after 47 days of complete lockdown is frustrating to say the least. And now staggered reopening’s have begun so expect even more cases. 
 

All this goes to show that we have a huge amount of untested cases. 

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25 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

So I'm noticing that quite a few countries are going back to normal. Slowly but more and more business are allowed to open again. This thread moves rapidly so I couldn't catch everyone but can someone please recap to me if things are getting better overall?

In Europe, definitely. Shops are open nearly everywhere, school are re-starting, universities start with exams ... the one big exception: gastronomy and tourism, which will hit many regions hard. Beergardens will open in Bavaria next weekend, May 15), and much of Austria's gastronomy will open, too (until 11pm, no nightclubs, discos, brothels and so on ...).

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15 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yup our (Indian) testing numbers are abysmally low. One of the lowest in the world in fact (per 1m people that is). 
 

And now that we are testing slightly more people in the last few days, new daily cases have jumped significantly. For numbers to start jumping up rather than going down after 47 days of complete lockdown is frustrating to say the least. And now staggered reopening’s have begun so expect even more cases. 
 

All this goes to show that we have a huge amount of untested cases. 

 

Be honest I think the lockdown was to just avoid millions of deaths rather then to stop the spread.

 

Thats my cynical view on it. 

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6 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

In Europe, definitely. Shops are open nearly everywhere, school are re-starting, universities start with exams ... the one big exception: gastronomy and tourism, which will hit many regions hard. Beergardens will open in Bavaria next weekend, May 15), and much of Austria's gastronomy will open, too (until 11pm, no nightclubs, discos, brothels and so on ...).

Saw the quote you answered to:

agree

and:

in addition to what you listed, its not back to normal only because stores,... reopen.

Its still a minimum distance to hold, not as a recommendation, its a must

Obligatory wear of mask in all stores, malls, public traffic incl waiting places, public buildings, hair cutting (forgot the word) = that one is very explicit regulated, in all corridors in a way outside your own home, means that included school... too.

How many people may enter a store... means per 20 square meter one customer for the most kind of stores, public buildings, traffic waiting places.

No common sport versions, no swimming, no sauna, no....

Professional sport matches - ghost matches... 

Entering a restaurant (when they will reopen) wearing a mask till the table, and every time you stand up in a way, means if you need to go to the toilet... Waiters, cooks, dish washer filling people, all have to wear masks, cleaning cutlery/silverware extra rules again.

 

Soon the meeting of people of a send household as group meetings will be allowed again, but not a party or a family fest, nothing is allowed with people living in more than 2 households

 

And many more rules.

 

They will loosen up more till autumn, if all will went well, they expect latest then a big wave again, normalcy will only be reached if either a vaccine is not only available, but also wide-spread given and/or a strongly working medication is broadly available.

Means with luck in a year, can be also need 2 years of time still.

 

generally speaking = I really do not think its a good idea to speak so often about soon back to normal, I think that it is too much softening up the awareness, it will be not helpful for a certain part / % of the population to let go of the distancing rules way too early.

 

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2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

Be honest I think the lockdown was to just avoid millions of deaths rather then to stop the spread.

 

Thats my cynical view on it. 

Ofcourse. I support the lockdown and agree that without it the numbers would be so much higher. But the government has failed at every step. Be it the migrant issue, miscommunications, police brutality, etc. What I am lamenting is the fact that even after such a long lockdown our numbers are still rising instead of going down as they have in most other countries. And that is solely due to the bungled response by the government and our lagging testing rates. 

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Posted (edited)

This should be um lol

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep

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This article looks at how people were reacting before Stay at Home orders took place. The big take away is that people were already modifying behavior before being told what to do. The majority of the change in behaviors (and resultant economic loss) occurs before stay at home orders. Roughly 10 days out in early adopter states and 20 days out in late adopter states. 

So the economic crash had less to do with stay at home orders and more to do with what people were seeing and reacting to. it also suggests that just 're-opening' the economy is not likely to lead to much new economic activity. That will only occur when people decide it is safe for them to resume.  in the states that have started re-opening the uptick in economic activity so far is pretty minimal.

 

They also had an interesting survey asking people would they definitely or likely consider doing an activity vs definitely or likely not consider doing an activity after restrictions are eased. They also had the % that said they wouldn't do it before COVID19 so you could filter those out from the ratio.

Not surprisingly the activities that people were least likely to do where large scale, lots of people events - concerts (19% yes, 64% no) and sporting events (19% yes, 61% no). Movies were the next least likely (61% no, 26% yes), then fly on an airplane and go to a shopping mall.

 

The most likely public thing they would do is eat at a restaurant and even that was net negative (53% no, 43% yes). Interestingly, the vast majority also said they would not send their kids to school (48% no, 29% yes)

The only activities where people responded with a net positive in terms of willingness were attending a funeral (+3 net), going to the dentist (+14), get a haircut (+13), and have dinner at a friend's (+20).

 

 

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40 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

The big take away is that people were already modifying behavior before being told what to do.

You only have to look at Sweden ... there's very little "lockdown" there, just events with >50 people (I think) are forbidden and restaurants / cafes have limited customers - everything else is just as before Corona. And yet, the google mobility map shows that Swedes ALSO stay at home or at least greatly reduce their mobility - maybe not as much as here in Austria but they do. AND Sweden's economy is suffering big time ... like everywhere else. Volvo had to close its factory near Goteborg; EC prognosis for Sweden's unemployment rate is in fact worse than the overall EC number.

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7 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

You only have to look at Sweden ... there's very little "lockdown" there, just events with >50 people (I think) are forbidden and restaurants / cafes have limited customers - everything else is just as before Corona. And yet, the google mobility map shows that Swedes ALSO stay at home or at least greatly reduce their mobility - maybe not as much as here in Austria but they do. AND Sweden's economy is suffering big time ... like everywhere else. Volvo had to close its factory near Goteborg; EC prognosis for Sweden's unemployment rate is in fact worse than the overall EC number.

I'd agree with this. 

Sweden and US's effective mobility changes were pretty similar. Sweden's population was simply more likely to follow government 'recommendations' than US population was. They did also close their secondary schools and colleges. 

 

if you look at the case and death charts across Western countries i'd argue Sweden and the US did the worst job of reacting to this outbreak, and Canada is going to look bad to as basically alot of its population was in the US in March so it is getting hit with a late wave where its deaths are still climbing.

 

All the countries that took really strong lockdown measures have not only been able to flatten but to bend the curve down significantly. Both cases and deaths are trending significantly downward. The US and Sweden are basically sitting on high plateaus and never really did enough to get the curve to bend downward. Sweden is going to catch the Netherlands pretty soon in deaths per capita. 

 

FWIW, the Youyang Gu model on the CDC site took a pretty good jump up in US deaths today. It had been trending down the last week and was in the 155K+ range, today it is as 175K

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