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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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14 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

yep, there's no indication the numbers will drop steeply anytime soon - as mentioned, especially the deaths/day are a highly inert number observed over a week, even if new infections would somehow go back "like a miracle", deaths would still be high for many weeks to come. And infections don't go back in Sweden despite testing only in hospitals ...

 

The one thing saving Sweden from chaos is that they don't put older victims in ICU, if you're 80+, you get palliative treatment and that's it. This way, they (hopefully) don't overshoot their pretty limited capacities.

 

btw, that's maybe cynical but the Swedes are used to this, there's a lot of operations or treatments you don't get once you're a certain age. An older Swede (aquaintance of my parents) travelled to Austria to get his prostatectomy done - he was 80 and not eligible for that op in Sweden any longer; he lived on for 12 healthy years after that. A Swedish girl (aquaintance of my son) was having unspecific but bad symptoms, after some visits to hospitals in Sweden those were diagnosed as psychosomatic ... during a symposium in Tyrol, she went to the hospital here because of her pain and was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis ...

The Swedish health system is one of the worst in developed European countries, simple as that.

 
   

 

 

So the death panels are real in Sweden...

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

So the death panels are real in Sweden...

definitely. That makes their laissez-faire approach towards Covid19 maybe a little more understandable (if not less cynical)

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28 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

So the death panels are real in Sweden...

 

Sweden and Netherlands are very different society in that regards and people from the exterior judging their approach often do not declare what are the goal in life and in this particular case before saying if it is failing or working.

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This is the best way to keep Covid numbers low. Just dont count them. Problem solved, pandemic over. 
 

State no longer allowed to track processing plant data

 

 



NEBRASKA - Local health officials will no longer be able to report COVID-19 data from meat processing plants.

Governor Pete Ricketts said Wednesday that the state won't be releasing specific numbers of cases at meatpacking plants, saying it's a matter of privacy.

Some local health departments like the Elkhorn Logan Valley Public Health Department and Public Health Solutions had been providing updates on positive cases at plants in their district as they came in.

Wednesday Elkhorn Logan Valley Health Director Gina Uhing provided a final update at the Tyson plant in Madison, saying 220 cases of the coronavirus were tied to employees there. The Madison plant has stopped production for the time being.

Public Health Solutions says the Smithfield Plant in Crete has seen 139 positive cases.

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51 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

So the death panels are real in Sweden...

 

 

It does mean they started with less aged 80+ with pre-existing conditions...and that's the group that is getting the worst effects by far of the virus...

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16 hours ago, Porthos said:

Of course, being the case that 2020 just has to fuck with us:

 

 

Northeast just can't catch a break with COVID-19.

 

---

 

It's 92 right now in Sacto, BTW, and scheduled to be 98 tomorrow, for the record. :ph34r:

The week started out awesome in Detroit. It was in the 70s and sunny. Yesterday the floor dropped out from under us. The temp peaked very early in the day at about 60 and then steadily dropped. By the time I went to bed it was below 40. It's currently in the upper 30s and has been snowing this am. At least the snow has been melting on contact with surfaces.

 

It's going down into the 20s here tonight. That's going to kill a lot of vegetation. Hopefully farmers haven't planted yet, because any who did are going to lose their crop.

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Posted (edited)

Will the USA ( I imagine driven by New York) covid death peak for the first wave end up having been week 14 (April 5 – Sunday, April 11) ?

Pneumonia death for the first column (a very bad weeks for the regular flu in the USA would have 5,000 pneumonia death usually, 5,500 for a peak, for global death would peak a bit above 65K in the worst season) , total deaths in the second column.

 

National   All 2019-20 2,709 52,476 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 2,770 52,882 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 2,982 54,162 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 2,989 53,939 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 2,914 54,014 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,066 55,523 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,097 55,744 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,001 56,059 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 2,985 55,293 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,313 57,082 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,461 57,401 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,358 57,156 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,504 58,178 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 4,046 59,546 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 4,077 59,887 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,968 58,373 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,809 57,811 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,690 57,298 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,680 57,638 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,698 56,943 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,565 56,878 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,656 57,103 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,758 56,652 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 3,722 54,704 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 4,215 54,810 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 5,691 58,120 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 8,950 65,610 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 10,441 69,880 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 8,898 62,998 > 100%
National   All 2019-20 5,727 47,526 99.90%

 

2 week in a row with the numbers quite down (will have to wait for a full 100 on week but 99.9 shall see a the week with less death in 2020 occuring being likely)

 

Last 2 year week 16 in the USA had 54K-54.4K deaths to give a reference point.

 

First 17 weeks, USA:

 

2017-2018: 73,570 pneumonia death / 999,794 deaths

2018-2019: 64,356 pneumonia death / 973,344 deaths

2019-2020: 85,591 pneumonia death / 991,777 deaths

 

If there was 60K excess death caused by COVID by the end of week 17, that would mean that the shutdown measure probably saved 35-40K life elsewhere (regular flu not occuring, cars accident and so on)

Edited by Barnack
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Posted (edited)

It is probably wrong but I wonder if Italy is better equipped than Germany to handle or prevent a possible second wave... Everyone seems to wear masks there now, they even do more tests. And Germany is starting to do silly things like reopening everything, even football games. I still don't understand why Germany is supposed to be the model in many articles, literally every European country to the East has better numbers. South Korea is too Asian? Czechia too small?

 

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

This is the best way to keep Covid numbers low. Just dont count them. Problem solved, pandemic over. 
 

State no longer allowed to track processing plant data

While this is disgusting when it comes to labor rights and the protection of workers, I think (hope) it won't change the overall stats, these positive cases should still be counted for Nebraska.

Edited by MrGlass2

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1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

literally every European country to the East has better numbers. South Korea is too Asian? Czechia too small?

Germany numbers are harder to get but yes South Korea society (always at war) and system sound too different for people to emulate, but aiming for better numbers than Germany sound unnecessary, they seem to have less death than usual:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Deaths-Life-Expectancy/mortality.html

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Good news from Hungary! Numbers from mass testing starting in early May are coming in. Over 12k results from the last 2 days, only 58 positives which is less than 0.5%.

 

Yesterday the number of new cases was 19, lowest in a month and second lowest since 21 March. Deaths per day are in the high single digits, which is still high for a country this size, but at least it's not increasing.

 

corona0508.jpg

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39 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

It is probably wrong but I wonder if Italy is better equipped than Germany to handle or prevent a possible second wave... Everyone seems to wear masks there now, they even do more tests. And Germany is starting to do silly things like reopening everything, even football games. I still don't understand why Germany is supposed to be the model in many articles, literally every European country to the East has better numbers. South Korea is too Asian? Czechia too small?

 

While this is disgusting when it comes to labor rights and the protection of workers, I think (hope) it won't change the overall stats, these positive cases should still be counted for Nebraska.

that is why I do not like simple head-lines

 

Germany still too has obligatory masks in stores, public transportation incl the waiting areas for those, everywhere inside public buildings, in schools and school buses excluding  the class rooms, but those get only used by e.g. 50% and only for some subjects, shift education, lots of cleaning, lots of rules like minimum distance, how often to air, how the desks are to position. In our school they wear masks also during classes, bur for now only the oldest ones are back and emergency cases.

Then we have lots of counties with no new cases in some states, and still hotspots in other areas. The loose ing only counts for the not bad areas (not a lot of hot-spots in relation)

I did a few posts the last few days to give examples.

Sport is also only allowed under strict regulations, normal people can not do all versions.

 

Not all leagues will restart, premier league pros... will go till ~ mid May in a training quarantine 

 

and then expect plays like illustrated here

 

6,club=bildplus.bild.jpg

 

 

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Brazil is the new epicenter of the pandemic and it's rising fast.

 

It seems it's the time of South America and Mexico to pass from the first wave of coronavirus.

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Percent of population using face masks in each state.

Color me surprised that GA actually comes out statistically above average on the use. (even if it is just barely)

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/05/08/states-are-more-and-less-likely-adopt-face-masks?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=face_mask_adoption

 

Maybe not surprisingly alot of the states with below avg use of masks are where the models predict there will be significant increases in deaths.

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Don't expect early returns on Election Night for California, folks...

 

Quote

California Voters Urged to Vote by Mail In November

 By  Leave a Comment

 

“Citing public health concerns over millions of Californians showing up at voting locations this fall, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Friday ordered ballots to be mailed to the state’s 20.6 million voters for the November election while imposing strict new rules for anyone who participates in person,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

California was in the process of transitioning to an all-mail ballot (a several year process), but for this upcoming election every last voter in the state will be mailed a ballot.  

 

According to the article, there will be provisions for in-person balloting for folks who are disabled or have similar needs.

 

===

 

If it's at all similar to how it's been run in Sacto the last few cycles, I presume there will still be drop off box locations for folks to manually deposit ballots, though how that would work with saftey issues, I don't know.

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1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Don't expect early returns on Election Night for California, folks...

 

California was in the process of transitioning to an all-mail ballot (a several year process), but for this upcoming election every last voter in the state will be mailed a ballot.  

 

According to the article, there will be provisions for in-person balloting for folks who are disabled or have similar needs.

 

===

 

If it's at all similar to how it's been run in Sacto the last few cycles, I presume there will still be drop off box locations for folks to manually deposit ballots, though how that would work with saftey issues, I don't know.

There's a ballot drop off box literally across the street from my home. That will definitely get a lot of use in the month leading up to election day. Luckily CA will be called early, but the house and local races might take 10 days after the election to be decided.

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1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

Color me surprised that GA actually comes out statistically above average on the use. (even if it is just barely)

Not in the slightest bit surprised, if only due to the influence of Asian cultures in California.  I would tend to think it makes us a bit more open to the idea.  Not to mention folks already wearing masks, or more willing to listen to the evidence behind using masks.

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6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

 

Maybe not surprisingly alot of the states with below avg use of masks are where the models predict there will be significant increases in deaths.

But maybe the use of masks will increase everywhere along with the death toll: with a few exceptions like Hawaii and California, many of the states at the top of the list are those with the highest death/pop.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Maybe not surprisingly alot of the states with below avg use of masks are where the models predict there will be significant increases in deaths.

I guess the logic being, how much willing to wear a mask is extremely correlated with all bad it was in the past and there is way more more to increase for the place that have yet to have any significant death.

 

Like state above support for mask will rise the moment death would start to jump.

 

 

Edited by Barnack

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1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Luckily CA will be called early, but the house and local races might take 10 days after the election to be decided.

There's another factor.  We could have something of the reverse of 2016 where Biden is hypothetically declared the winner by EC while Trump is still leading the actual votes counted nationwide.  California is going to provide a shit ton of votes for both candidates.  But California easily has enough people in it to shift the popular vote total by a point or two once all votes are counted.

 

And it's this once all votes are counted which could rise to a "problem" as more and more states shift to mail in/absentee voting this November.  Enough so that....

 

 

It's a compelling read.  What brings it in to COVID discussion is that a lot of states might not be finalized or the totals counted aren't quite matching the "calls" yet and wouldn't for a couple of days.  Or even possibly a week in the case of very close contests.

 

Yet the media has slowly been training us to expect a finish by midnight Eastern.

 

And that could, and I do emphasize could, be a problem if there are delays in the count among other things.

 

===

 

I of course don't have much hope that "the media" will try to temper one of its bigger ratings night bonanzas with such ridiculous notions like "nuance" or the quaint idea that "uncertain times might just lead to delays in results being known".

 

No, I expect it to be a shit storm on one level or another.  If only because if it bleeds, it leads drama is fantastic for ratings and clicks.

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