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Russia and Brazil have really been rocketing up the charts. Brazil went over 15k today on worldometers, significantly above any non-US single day. Russia will pass Spain this Sunday and take #2. Brazil looks to surpass next weekend and the top 3 will have shifted from US+Western Europe to US+Russia+Brazil.   
 

Though of course, these are just the officially confirmed cases, and reporting can vary wildly by region.

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Update on the favorite for 'Worst Crisis Leader', who has now lost his second health minister in one month:

Quote

Brazilian health minister resigns as record cases confirmed again. Brazil’s health minister resigned Friday after less than a month on the job in a sign of continuing upheaval over how the nation should battle the coronavirus pandemic, quitting a day after President Jair Bolsonaro stepped up pressure on him to expand use of the antimalarial drug chloroquine in treating patients.

 

Record increase in cases in Brazil. Brazil has confirmed 15,305 new cases; a record for a 24-hour period, as well as 824 related deaths, according to data from the country’s Health Ministry. Brazil has registered 218,223 confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic, as well as 14,817 deaths.

And a worrying development in Germany:

Quote

From anger over lockdown measures to a purported vaccine plan by Bill Gates: a growing wave of demonstrations in Germany by conspiracy theorists, extremists and anti-vaxxers has alarmed even Chancellor Angela Merkel, AFP reports.

 

Initially starting as a handful of protesters decrying tough restrictions on public life to halt transmission of the coronavirus, the protests have swelled in recent weeks to gatherings of thousands in major German cities. Thousands are set to mass again in Stuttgart, Munich and Berlin on Saturday, with police out in force after some protests turned violent.

 

The growing demonstrations have sparked comparison to the anti-Muslim Pegida marches at the height of Europe’s refugee crisis in 2015, raising questions over whether the strong support that Merkel is currently enjoying due to her handling of the virus crisis could evaporate.

Just like it won popularity by fanning anti-migrant sentiment five years back, the far-right AfD party is now openly encouraging protesters and repositioning itself as an anti-lockdown party.

 

A recent poll commissioned by the Spiegel news magazine found that almost one in four Germans surveyed voiced “understanding” for the demonstrations.

 

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My cousin swung by the house to drop something off for Dad and we chatted a bit. He was telling us about how he had to go up North to pick up a motor for his boat from some old French Canadian Man.  It was sooo funny.  He said that the guy hadn't left his house in four weeks, and was complaining about how "He would've driven down the motor, but you have The Covid down there, and he would've been run out of Fort Kent if he brought it back there!"

 

LMFAO.  "The Covid."

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1 million tests. 
 

 

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First time in 2 months can run some errands

 

- Fix my Glasses

- Buy plants for my vegetable Garden

- Buy some drywall for some small house reno

- Go Car Shopping with GF

- Fill up Propane for my bbq

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10 hours ago, AndyLL said:

Don't know what's going to happen in Georgia.  However...

 

Georgia's website where that graph comes from uses a 14 day rolling window so that graph does not show any officially numbers since May 1st.  What you see past the right line (the start of the 14 day period) are projected and are ridiculous consider the unofficial numbers reported have them flat since the peak.

 

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

And lets remember that 'being open' does not mean pre-covid open.  Many people do that this serious and even in the open states will be careful and it's been a slow ramp up of open businesses.

 

We won't know for a while the effect of opening up.

 

Also... expect official deaths to go down in many states.  There seems an concentrated effect to restrict what can be consider a death by covid.

 

In Colorado, because several Republican state senators rose a stink and are trying to get our health department director investigated only deaths where the Dr or coroner list COVID as the cause of death will be officially counted.

 

So if you have a severe underlying condition and catch COVID and die the underlying condition is likely what will be on the death certificate and you won't be counted as a COVID death in Colorado.  If you die at home it's almost guaranteed you will not be counted especially if you have not seen a Dr. (a common case in nursing homes) 

 

Coroner is a political in most places I believe so they will err on the side of their beliefs. 

 

Since the number of deaths has become more of a political issue then a health issue expect a huge range of differences between Red/Blue states.

 

 

As someone who lives in GA this is not really accurate. There have been problems with the GA Dept of Health site and how they report numbers for weeks. I've been keeping my own data and charts on GA.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/just-cuckoo-state-latest-data-mishap-causes-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/

 

Also, one of the problems in looking at GA data is how they are classifying positive cases. When a test comes back with a positive result, they are backdating it to the day the test takes place, not the day it comes back for their charts. Doing this will always make the chart look like they are going down (because it takes time for tests to come back) even if they are not.

https://www.13wmaz.com/article/news/local/the-curve-shows-encouraging-signs-but-the-latest-14-days-are-subject-to-change/93-e6687f2c-d0a9-40af-8c69-d5146edfca0b

 

the good news in GA is that the positive case percentage is consistently going down (though it is still over 12%). Deaths have been basically flat for 5 weeks (my numbers - Apr 7th the 7 day rolling avg deaths was 32, yesterday it was 33). That's better than increasing, but they really haven't gone down at all.

 

Also, it's too early to know the effects of opening. If you think of how this ramped up in the US it took about 6-8 weeks for it to explode. We are only in the 3rd week of re-opening here. The real sense of things will be if we have not spiked by early June, then things are going well. I've been pretty pleased so far as people have been largely sane and safe in how they have gone about their lives. I'm not expecting a huge spike as it is not like it was in mid-March in terms of how people are living, but I am sort of expecting that the numbers will largely stay on a plateau - 7 day avg numbers probably hanging around 30 a day for deaths and 600 a day for cases, hopefully the positive case % continues to go down though and we get into single digits soon. GA's positive case % is currently almost double the national average. (which is about 7%)

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Posted (edited)

Hospitals are laying off thousands of jobs.

 

My wife lost her ER shifts, (reason she took the job). Now she is 100% urgent care, lost all fringe benefits and bonus will be cut likely.

 

They can do this because nearly every hospital in the country is furloughing PAs. It's better I guess but her problems will be long term. Now her job will suck and there isn't really an equivalent specialty close at all. 

 

It's the whole reason we moved here. Grateful we both have jobs could be way worse but once things turn it will suck for her for probably 18 months minimum.

 

Medical used to be safe role. Instead it's not even in a medical crisis. Suffice to say I expect to be impacted by covid for at least a decade and technically that's lucky.

 

Many small businesses the effect is permanent. The us economy is so much worse off than they are predicting

Edited by cdsacken
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12 hours ago, Kalo said:

 

Well, I can see that it will do no good to argue with you. but there is no way you can say these theories are 100% false.  just because you say something with certainty it doesn't mean it's true. that is your opinion.  Also if you think the media has the good of man at heart, well I will say no more. I don't know or sure what is behind this, I will admit that. only time will set to light what's really going on. 

If you have the time I recommend this video. This is by a surgeon in NY who watches the Plandemic video and then discusses it point by point. 

(It's 37 min - so you need to have time)

 

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Posted (edited)

There is legitimate good news right now - but it is all tempered good news, it is not shout from the top of the building type of good news.

In the US the positive case % is under 10% nationally (currently around 7%), that's good news. Deaths are down from their peak, also good news. Testing is up significantly from where it was a few weeks ago.

 

But that is tempered by the fact that the curves in the US are much more flat than most European countries. We aren't seeing as significant a decline in cases and deaths as they are in Europe - likely because we did not execute as strong of lockdowns. So at least in the US we are likely to be dealing with higher levels than many other countries going forward. 

I think these tweets from Nate Silver do an excellent job of summing up the current state in the US

 

It's still possible that we could have 200,000 deaths in the US by Labor Day.  That's before the fall when most epidemiologists expect it to get worse.

Edited by RamblinRed
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8 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Russia and Brazil have really been rocketing up the charts. Brazil went over 15k today on worldometers, significantly above any non-US single day. Russia will pass Spain this Sunday and take #2. Brazil looks to surpass next weekend and the top 3 will have shifted from US+Western Europe to US+Russia+Brazil.   
 

Though of course, these are just the officially confirmed cases, and reporting can vary wildly by region.

Brazil is def the worst hit of the big 3 I'd say,  they have almost a 30% positive test rate..

 

while the US has like 13% and Russia only about 4%. Russia is doing better than the US in terms of tests/1M population too. if those numbers & tests are actually true.

 

 

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Denmark reopened schools and businesses some time ago without the Asian level of "zero tolerance" in statistics, and they just had their first day with 0 death since March. Perhaps the coronavirus isn't that bad and it is possible to reopen almost everything, now that people are aware of the danger. Or, the contagion could start again - but at a slower rate than in March; if that is the case then hospitals will be overwhelmed again but in two months instead of two weeks. It seems to me that government regulation is needed to make sure the new normal looks like this bar in Spain:

5030.jpg?width=1225&quality=85&auto=form

 

Rather than this one in Wisconsin:

wisconsin-bars-packed-court-orders-end-c

 

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I knew people can be stupid, but it seems the virus (?) makes people even more stupid

 


Instabile material, DIY ability unknown, kids get tired or nauseous and loose the grip,... I literally screamed

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

.


 

 

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Posted (edited)

US rate of positive tests down to 7% IS good news; still way to go though ... as mentioned, you'd want something in the 1% region to really have it "under control".

I'm not afraid of a sudden surge in cases any longer in most states; by now nearly everybody has got the message and even if there are a few black sheep among us (out of spite or simply stupidity, doesn't really matter) most have understood what's it about. Keep your distance, keep the air circulating, wear a mask when you can't distance ... you see those changes in our everyday lives and while most people were smiling in an embarassed way in the beginning when we didn't do the usual handshakes or kisses, by now that's just the way it is. We get on with our lives.

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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9 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Russia and Brazil have really been rocketing up the charts. Brazil went over 15k today on worldometers, significantly above any non-US single day. Russia will pass Spain this Sunday and take #2. Brazil looks to surpass next weekend and the top 3 will have shifted from US+Western Europe to US+Russia+Brazil.   
 

Though of course, these are just the officially confirmed cases, and reporting can vary wildly by region.

I'm pretty sure Brazil would be no.2 if they did more testing. I'd assume it would be the same with countries like India where they've done almost no testing.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Denmark reopened schools and businesses some time ago without the Asian level of "zero tolerance" in statistics, and they just had their first day with 0 death since March. Perhaps the coronavirus isn't that bad and it is possible to reopen almost everything, now that people are aware of the danger. Or, the contagion could start again - but at a slower rate than in March; if that is the case then hospitals will be overwhelmed again but in two months instead of two weeks. It seems to me that government regulation is needed to make sure the new normal looks like this bar in Spain:

5030.jpg?width=1225&quality=85&auto=form

 

Rather than this one in Wisconsin:

wisconsin-bars-packed-court-orders-end-c

 

That seems like a fairly irresponsible statement to me imo.

 

The ability to safely reopen is contingent on a multitude of factors.  While yes, most countries are needing to transition to a stage of some level of operation.

 

But if you do so in states where either cases haven’t even peaked, testing infrastructure and plans for proper contact tracing policies are not being implemented, masks aren’t being enforced, social distancing and risk minimization policies are a guideline and not enforced, then it’s rather naive to think that cases will not spike up again.

 

There are ways to safely reopen, the issue in the US is that, for the most part (in particular red states), the necessary conditions for a safe reopening are not being met.  Texas is not Denmark.

Edited by The Panda
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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Knights of Ren said:

 

I don’t know if there’s been further discussion regarding Fox Sports Radio host Clay Travis on here, but he’s been a coronavirus denier since day 1. Back in March, he was tweeting, blogging, vlogging, and talking on the radio about how this virus was just media hysteria, only a thousand Americans at most would die, new cases would peak in March, this would all be over before end of April, lockdowns were excessive, and that this was just like the flu. In fact, I think he still maintains that the flu is more dangerous. Goes on and on about “coronavirus positivity” to fight off the “corona bros”. What a tool.

 

Clay Travis is a hack who has spread so much false narratives about the virus I think it’s ridiculous that he still has a job. Then again, it’s Fox.

Edited by OncomingStorm93
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Nate Silvers tweets should be seen as good news... it literally is the outcome that realists expected at the beginning of the flatten the curve talk.... the idea that the virus goes away after the lockdowns (so many of my conservative friends had that mindset) was not legitimate. A gradual slowdown but not dramatic shows that our new behaviors are at least having some effect.... of course it remains to be seen what happens a month from now. 

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1 hour ago, The Panda said:

But if you do so in states where either cases haven’t even peaked, testing infrastructure and plans for proper contact tracing policies are not being implemented, masks aren’t being enforced, social distancing and risk minimization policies are a guideline and not enforced, then it’s rather naive to think that cases will not spike up again.

Yes but my point was that government regulation is needed to enforce new rules in the age of covid. Then it may be possible to reopen almost everything even with the European level of expertise in tracing (Easy Mode), and without the need to get down to 0 case/day first. And hopefully this is the case, since it is now the experiment already started in many countries.

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15 hours ago, Kalo said:

 

Well, I can see that it will do no good to argue with you. but there is no way you can say these theories are 100% false.  just because you say something with certainty it doesn't mean it's true. that is your opinion.  Also if you think the media has the good of man at heart, well I will say no more. I don't know or sure what is behind this, I will admit that. only time will set to light what's really going on. 

 

You do realize that Jason has a rigorous scientific background in these areas, right?

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