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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Nate Silvers tweets should be seen as good news... it literally is the outcome that realists expected at the beginning of the flatten the curve talk.... the idea that the virus goes away after the lockdowns (so many of my conservative friends had that mindset) was not legitimate. A gradual slowdown but not dramatic shows that our new behaviors are at least having some effect.... of course it remains to be seen what happens a month from now. 

I agree. The best case scenario in the US is just a long, slow decline and that any future spikes are small enough that they don't overwhelm the local health infrastructure where they occur.

 

There was and still is a large misunderstanding of the purpose of the shutdown and what its outcome would be. 

 

If people will wear masks and employ simple social distancing etiquette it won't get rid of the virus but will allow you to get to a new state where you can have solid mobility and things will be different - how you go to a restaurant, how you go to a store, but you don't have to stay locked down. it likely means that large gatherings are still going to be few and far between, 

 

Most importantly, people will be able to go outside - which most people should have been doing all along as long as they stayed away from others. 

 

My personal belief is that we are likely to see a very slow decline through the summer in cases and deaths and then later in the fall - probably around October/November, when the weather turns colder and people start spending more time inside rather than outside the cases are likely to start spiking up again. Just hopefully not near where we were in April. 

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7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Yes but my point was that government regulation is needed to enforce new rules in the age of covid. Then it may be possible to reopen almost everything even with the European level of expertise in tracing (Easy Mode), and without the need to get down to 0 case/day first. And hopefully this is the case, since it is now the experiment already started in many countries.

I mean I still wouldn’t say almost everything prior to dropping cases that low.  But yes, safe reopening are clearly possible but they’re again contingent on many of the factors I mentioned.  Your post didn’t come across as saying that to me.

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I am not someone who is a fan of Nate's 538 but his timeline about the coronavirus updates is good and he's having some pretty good points.

I said it again in this thread. The US "lockdowns" are not that strict. If the US had the type of lockdowns European countries had I don't know what the reaction would have been.

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22 hours ago, Knights of Ren said:

 

This footnote at the bottom of the graphs explain why they look better than they really are.

* 14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending.

 

Basically they are undercounting numbers in the most recent 2 weeks and then going back later and upping those numbers - so the current numbers are always underccounted relative to previous numbers. Also, GA changed its definitions for its color schemes on its state graph last week so that fewer would should up in the highest category and be highlighted in red. (you had to have more cases reported than previously in order to be placed in a higher category).

 

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Posted (edited)

Insufficient tracing programs set up at the last minute are probably better than nothing, and may be enough (see the UK and France to see if that is true). But in the US, they probably need a minimum level of federal coordination for this to work:

 

Quote

 

As state after state begins to reopen coast to coast in the United States, local health departments charged with tracking down everyone who has been in close contact with those who test positive for coronavirus are still scrambling to hire the number of people they need to do the job.

 

They are often hundreds – even thousands – of people short of targets for their so-called contact tracing programs. Public health experts have consistently said robust programs to test more people and trace their contacts are needed for states to safely reboot their economies and prevent a resurgence of the virus.

 

Cook county, Illinois, has just 29 contact tracers serving 2.5 million people living in suburban communities around Chicago. The jail in Cook county has been an intense hotspot for Covid-19.

...

Public health experts say contact tracing systems should be in place before cases become widespread, so every new infection can be tracked and the person’s contacts identified, tested and isolated from the rest of the community.

 

Until recently, there had been scant federal guidance on what contact tracing should look like, and there is still no coordinated federal strategy. While other countries are taking a national approach to contact tracing, the US is leaving it to states to devise their own programs.

If the past is any guide, there will be lots of articles warning that US tracing is failing. Then Trump will put Jared in charge of tracing and, one month later, he will come up with a McDonald's-sponsored federal tracing program (which, again, would be better than nothing) and Trump will declare himself the King of Tracing.

Edited by MrGlass2
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, stephanos13 said:

I am not someone who is a fan of Nate's 538 but his timeline about the coronavirus updates is good and he's having some pretty good points.

I said it again in this thread. The US "lockdowns" are not that strict. If the US had the type of lockdowns European countries had I don't know what the reaction would have been.

 

Canada's not as crazy as America but I would imagine it would be a huge backlash here if we had italy style lockdown...so I doubt it fly in America.

 

Plus with everyone having a car and spread out... it would next to impossible to enforce here unless declaring martial law.

 

Like there was a line to get into the car dealer today as I went shopping for a car lol.

Edited by Lordmandeep

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3 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

 

You do realize that Jason has a rigorous scientific background in these areas, right?

Nope. but someone just told me who works at a hospital it was all "fake" another guy, who was in the military and has a testing lab also said the same thing, not fake per say, there is a Covid-19 strand. it's basically a strand of the flow though, and they are lying to the face about the numbers. I'm not sure I believe what he said 100%. but it's kind of hard to argue when I work in a place that gets 100s of people with traffic every day and no one is getting sick, (there are now "cases" where I work and no one is getting abnormally sick. the ones that are are fine in a couple weeks, I'm pretty pissed. I am really starting to believe it is fake. how would anyone know for sure? they have not been allowed to go out for a month and a half. I'm not trying to sound insensitive, but I think we need to be open to the possibility that the powers that be are trying to pull something on us. 

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4 minutes ago, Kalo said:

Nope. but someone just told me who works at a hospital it was all "fake" another guy, who was in the military and has a testing lab also said the same thing, not fake per say, there is a Covid-19 strand. it's basically a strand of the flow though, and they are lying to the face about the numbers. I'm not sure I believe what he said 100%. but it's kind of hard to argue when I work in a place that gets 100s of people with traffic every day and no one is getting sick, (there are now "cases" where I work and no one is getting abnormally sick. the ones that are are fine in a couple weeks, I'm pretty pissed. I am really starting to believe it is fake. how would anyone know for sure? they have not been allowed to go out for a month and a half. I'm not trying to sound insensitive, but I think we need to be open to the possibility that the powers that be are trying to pull something on us. 

No, we don't.

 

It's good to have an open mind.  It's not so good to have such an open mind that your brains fall out of your head.

 

---

 

Here's the thing.  This country has nearly 330 million people in it.  Even if you take the extreme end of current deaths (say 120k with an undercount), that's 0.03 percent of the country.  That isn't even accounting for spikes in some area while others have been left relatively untouched. And it's especially not accounting for the clustering around nursing homes, prisons, and meat packing plants.

 

This isn't Measles or the Chicken Pox where it is super easy to catch.  And thank god for that, BTW.  

 

The real danger of COVID-19 isn't how easy it is to catch.  The danger of it is incubation time and folks not showing symptoms.  That means unlike other diseases folks can be spreading it for quite a while unknowingly.

 

If we didn't have any sort of lockdown and we just ignored all of this (and this includes no change in social behavior) the deaths would have skyrocketed.

 

Or do I need to bring up the phenomenon of Y2K again?  You may or may not be too young to remember, but one of the reasons it didn't turn out as catastrophic as some thought was because of the preperation.

 

Same here.  The reason the death toll is as "low" as it is, and I do use that term judiciously, IS because enough people are changing behavior.  

 

That does mean you can have a ton of people at Home Depot and not have 1000 cases then next week. 

Especially if they are being safe-ish inside of said Home Depot.

 

So, no.  We do NOT need to be open to the possibility that "THEY" are lying to us.  The mountain of evidence is overwhelming that COVID-19 is exactly what we thought it was: a deadly pandemic that if left unchecked would slowly but inexorably spread through the population, leaving devastation in its wake.

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4 minutes ago, Kalo said:

how would anyone know for sure?

yeah yeah, so true ... how should we know the Earth is a globe? How would anybody know why the sky is blue? Why can't it be true that the moon is made of cheese, nobody can know that.

 

Sorry man, you sound like a very blunt mind. Yep, when something is new, you don't know anything sure about it. But, you know, there are ways to observe, to record, to explain things, also new things. We call this "science". And it's certainly true that scientist don't always agree - in fact, that's one of the best things about the "scientific method" as we understand it - theories are put before other scientists so they can add their criticism and input.

 

So, while we sure don't know everything about this disease yet, there are (after about 3-4 months of work) som things that we DO already know.

  • No, it is not a strand of the "flow", but a virus of a different kind.
  • Yes, it's completely possible you don't know anyone with a serious case - because the vast majority can recover without being hospitalised.
  • No, it is not a "fake" - you can observe the virus under a good electron microscope.

and what you mean by "the powers that be are trying to pull something on us" I simply can't fathom, maybe you'd like to expand but I can't imagine any power on earth profiting from a 20% drop in world GOP.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No, we don't.

 

It's good to have an open mind.  It's not so good to have such an open mind that your brains fall out of your head.

 

---

 

Here's the thing.  This country has nearly 330 million people in it.  Even if you take the extreme end of current deaths (say 120k with an undercount), that's 0.03 percent of the country.  That isn't even accounting for spikes in some area while others have been left relatively untouched. And it's especially not accounting for the clustering around nursing homes, prisons, and meat packing plants.

 

This isn't Measles or the Chicken Pox where it is super easy to catch.  And thank god for that, BTW.  

 

The real danger of COVID-19 isn't how easy it is to catch.  The danger of it is incubation time and folks not showing symptoms.  That means unlike other diseases folks can be spreading it for quite a while unknowingly.

 

If we didn't have any sort of lockdown and we just ignored all of this (and this includes no change in social behavior) the deaths would have skyrocketed.

 

Or do I need to bring up the phenomenon of Y2K again?  You may or may not be too young to remember, but one of the reasons it didn't turn out as catastrophic as some thought was because of the preperation.

 

Same here.  The reason the death toll is as "low" as it is, and I do use that term judiciously, IS because enough people are changing behavior.  

 

That does mean you can have a ton of people at Home Depot and not have 1000 cases then next week. 

Especially if they are being safe-ish inside of said Home Depot.

 

So, no.  We do NOT need to be open to the possibility that "THEY" are lying to us.  The mountain of evidence is overwhelming that COVID-19 is exactly what we thought it was: a deadly pandemic that if left unchecked would slowly but inexorably spread through the population, leaving devastation in its wake.

...

Edited by Kalo

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Just now, Kalo said:

thanks for the insult I fucking tired off people trying people like less then human because they have a different opinion, maybe you are right but you don't have to call me fucking brain dead asshole. 

I didn't insult you. If anything I referred to a common saying of the dangers of having an open mind.

 

As it is, I do think it is good to be skeptical.  But in this case the evidence is overwhelming. If anything our government has been consistently downplaying the dangers.

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1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I didn't insult you. If anything I referred to a common saying of the dangers of having an open mind.

 

As it is, I do think it is good to be skeptical.  But in this case the evidence is overwhelming. If anything our government has been consistently downplaying the dangers.

I'm sorry, I had a hard day. it is stressful, where I work. and I am working my butt off because of everyone taking leave and being super busy because we are an essential  business' I'm also ever tired. I'm just tired of this whole thing. feels like the world is ending. 

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@Kalo

 

Look, I get it.  The evidence one sees with their own eyes will always be foremost in your thoughts.  Hell, here in Sacramento we've been relatively spared from COVID-19.  And if I just looked at people going in and out of a store day in and day out, I'd be much more skeptical too.

 

But those deaths across major cities and across the world aren't coming out of thin air.  I look at the commonalties of where there is major spikes (nursing homes, prisons, industrial complexes with tight working conditions) and then transpose that to many currently closed work spaces and I shudder.

 

A lot of work environments would be spared.  Probably due to luck if anything else.  But others would not.  All we have to do is look at the spread in countries before lockdowns took place to see how easy it is to jump in a closed environment.

 

I'd have to dig up the post, but there was a case in South Korea where a ton of people in a call center were stricken with COVID-19, but many more on one side of the call center than the other.

 

I strongly suspect that the same would play out across the US.  Places with more packed working conditions and perhaps folks closer to air conditioning units would have more of a chance of getting infected than more open areas.

 

I keep coming back to nursing homes, prisons, and meat packing plants for a reason.  They're the sections of the US that are still relatively cramped and not really socially distant.  If nothing was done, I could see call centers and office spaces that were more packed than others follow suit.

 

So, sure, I could entertain the idea that some shadowy groups of people are lying to us.  Except then I look at all the other evidnece out there and I am forced to conclude that, no, no they are not.  The pattern of where deaths and cases are currently has pretty well matches up with what has been predicted all along.

 

The only real place they seem to be falling down is in outdoor transmission.  That might, and I do stress might, not be quite as contagious as some folks immediately thought.  But the science is far from settled on that score.

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20 minutes ago, Kalo said:

Nope. but someone just told me who works at a hospital it was all "fake" another guy, who was in the military and has a testing lab also said the same thing, not fake per say, there is a Covid-19 strand. it's basically a strand of the flow though, and they are lying to the face about the numbers. I'm not sure I believe what he said 100%. but it's kind of hard to argue when I work in a place that gets 100s of people with traffic every day and no one is getting sick, (there are now "cases" where I work and no one is getting abnormally sick. the ones that are are fine in a couple weeks, I'm pretty pissed. I am really starting to believe it is fake. how would anyone know for sure? they have not been allowed to go out for a month and a half. I'm not trying to sound insensitive, but I think we need to be open to the possibility that the powers that be are trying to pull something on us. 

So... all the world and local leaders  created this 'fake' crisis to:

 

  1. Crash the world economy
  2. Lose their jobs ( one of the biggest ways to lose a re-election in the USA is in a big recession)
  3. Cripple their local/state economy for years
  4. Remove 50% of the wealth of the rich.

So 10,000s or even 100,000s of people got together to create this crisis for .... what is the reason they did it again?

 

That's the problem with most conspiracy myths... it's hard to come up with a good reason why anyone would want to do 'it'

 

You're young so you are correct that you and the rest of your age groups don't see 1st hand the effects of COVID-19.  

 

But haven't you seen what's happened in NYC and the harder hit cities in Italy and France were the virus showed what it can do when unchecked?

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Kalo said:

I'm sorry, I had a hard day. it is stressful, where I work. and I am working my butt off because of everyone taking leave and being super busy because we are an essential  business' I'm also ever tired. I'm just tired of this whole thing. feels like the world is ending. 

Sorry, man.  I really do mean it.  :( 

 

And I also really did mean it when I said "I get it" when it comes to seeing your own evidence.

 

Just... I dunno.  Might try to some way to blow off some steam or relax in the small spare time you have for your own mental health.  It's gonna be a long hard slog, but it will be better eventually.  Even if there are a bunch of selfish assholes out there overtaxing workers like yourself. :( 

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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Sorry, man.  I really do mean it.  :( 

 

And I also really did mean it when I said "I get it" when it comes to seeing your own evidence.

 

Just... I dunno.  Might try to some way to blow off some steam or relax in the small spare time you have for your own mental health.  It's gonna be a long hard slog, but it will be better eventually.  Even if there are a bunch of selfish assholes out there overtaxing workers like yourself. :( 

Thank you, I am usually a very positive person. it's kind of harder for me, every time I go to work I am reminded of the state the world is in, seeing masks and social distancing signs everywhere, for hours on end all day. I know this will be over eventually, it's just hard right now. I guess everyone can relate some, but people who don't have to be out in the world as much as we do, probably aren't feeling the effects quite as hard. 

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1 minute ago, Kalo said:

Thank you, I am usually a very positive person. it's kind of harder for me, every time I go to work I am reminded of the state the world is in, seeing masks and social distancing signs everywhere, for hours on end all day. I know this will be over eventually, it's just hard right now. I guess everyone can relate some, but people who don't have to be out in the world as much as we do, probably aren't feeling the effects quite as hard. 

It's probably bordering on an empty gesture, Kalo, but when I do go out into stores and hardware places and such I do take the time to personally thank the folks I'm interacting with.  I know folks like you have it extremely tough right now.  And I figure the positive feedback I give to folks is more appreciated by some than by others.

 

At the same time I figure if I'm grateful to folks like you, it might help counteract the selfish a-holes who are being extremely rude and selfish.  It can't hurt, at least.

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Really frustrating to not see the numbers drop off more in the USA after all the lockdown for the past 2 months. People still catching this damn thing. 

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8 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Really frustrating to not see the numbers drop off more in the USA after all the lockdown for the past 2 months. People still catching this damn thing. 

Was never going to stop dude, the lockdowns kept the numbers from skyrocketing unstopped. Its going to be a long slow down, just as the flattening the curve models projected back in March (and most everyone ignored.) 

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38 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Really frustrating to not see the numbers drop off more in the USA after all the lockdown for the past 2 months. People still catching this damn thing. 

The only way this would've been completely eradicated was a total lockdown of the country with everything staying in their homes for a month, and that was never happening (especially with the "don't tell me what to do" crowd out protesting and such). Now everyone is gonna (hopefully) be cautious for a while and take extra precaution (masks, gloves, etc.) as life starts to slowly return.

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