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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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38 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Really frustrating to not see the numbers drop off more in the USA after all the lockdown for the past 2 months. People still catching this damn thing. 

The only way this would've been completely eradicated was a total lockdown of the country with everything staying in their homes for a month, and that was never happening (especially with the "don't tell me what to do" crowd out protesting and such). Now everyone is gonna (hopefully) be cautious for a while and take extra precaution (masks, gloves, etc.) as life starts to slowly return.

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Dave's rant here is logical but the fact is people misunderstood what "flattening the curve" really is. They thought the cases would crush and coronavirus will be defeated like that when it was to help not crush the health care system.

 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Kalo said:

Thank you, I am usually a very positive person. it's kind of harder for me, every time I go to work I am reminded of the state the world is in, seeing masks and social distancing signs everywhere, for hours on end all day. I know this will be over eventually, it's just hard right now. I guess everyone can relate some, but people who don't have to be out in the world as much as we do, probably aren't feeling the effects quite as hard. 

This is really hard mentally and emotionally for alot of people, that is completely understandable. 

 

It's very hard to comprehend living in a world that has radically changed in a couple of months from what everyone was used to. But this isn't the first time that has happened and won't be the last - whether it is due to war, due to a virus, due to weather. Sometimes the world makes huge shifts. It's hard to get you mind to make a mind shift - which is actually what is needed right now. We need to understand this is going to be ongoing for some time, probably years. This isn't do something for 3 months and then everything goes back to how it was before. It may never be exactly like it was before. Alot of that will depend upon what scientific and medical advances are made. 

 

As Porthos mentioned, part of the scientific method is having a healthy skepticism. There is a reason scientific articles have to go through a peer review process before release. That is so they can be poked and prodded and to look for mistakes and false conclusions. The video I linked earlier by the doctor talking about the Plandemic conspiracy mentions how this is important to the scientific method and having scientists coming up with other rationals is important. But as with every conspiracy theory so far, when you poke back at the conspiracy theory, they tend to fall apart very quickly with a complete lack of data and frankly often a complete lack of rationality. 

 

FWIW Porthos, here is the SK example you are talking about. This is still an amazing study to me in what SK did. They literally shut down an entire skyscraper and isolated and quarantined different groups of people. Same process they are going through with their current outbreak.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

 

As has also been mentioned, just because you haven't had someone you know personally affected, doesn't mean it isn't happening. That is a very normal human bias - when tend to overweight what we see and hear personally. My next door neighbor is an ICU nurse who caught it (25 yrs old) and it kept her in hte hospital for 3 days and then at home for 14. We also have a cousin of my wife's on Long Island who is currently dealing with it. 

It is very real, and it can be very nasty - not just in terms of deaths, but in terms of sickness. Young or old, healthy or not, if you end up being one of the 'statistics' it can really hit you hard and throw you for a loop, even if it doesn't kill you.

 

One surprise for medical professionals has been it appears to be turning out to be a multi-organ attacking virus rather than just a single organ attacking one. While it is a respiratory virus, so it naturally attacks the lungs, there is also a significant incidence of it attacking the kidneys. There are cases of it attacking other organs as well. 

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11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The only way this would've been completely eradicated was a total lockdown of the country with everything staying in their homes for a month, and that was never happening (especially with the "don't tell me what to do" crowd out protesting and such). Now everyone is gonna (hopefully) be cautious for a while and take extra precaution (masks, gloves, etc.) as life starts to slowly return.


Exactly, our “lockdowns” have been more like a strong suggestion with almost no enforcement on an individual level (a few businesses have gotten slapped here or there).

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10 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

Dave's rant here is logical but the fact is people misunderstood what "flattening the curve" really is. They thought the cases would crush and coronavirus will be defeated like that when it was to help not crush the health care system.

 

Well the messaging was incredibly unclear, we hear flattening the curve in one side and the other side that reaching heard immunity without a vaccin is completely unrealistic with a similar intensity (if not higher), that make it look that flattening the curve is more than just having almost everyone infected over 12-18 month instead of 2-3 months.

 

A lot of country seem to be able to do much more than flatten the curve (giving hope to many that it is possible to do more than that and hope that stay alive even in place with millions of case it seem)

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47 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Was never going to stop dude, the lockdowns kept the numbers from skyrocketing unstopped. Its going to be a long slow down, just as the flattening the curve models projected back in March (and most everyone ignored.) 

Bingo. 

 

US's lockdown was never as severe as what most other countries did. There were so many more exceptions and there was never a national level mandatory lockdown. All you had to do was look at the mobility reports to see the differences from the US to most of the European countries. 

 

at this point i'd be happy with a consistent long, slow decline. 

I don't expect warm weather to help in any significant way (other they maybe people being outside assuming they stay 6 ft from each other), otherwise you wouldn't see it take off in places like Mexico and Singapore.

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6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Well the messaging was incredibly unclear, we hear flattening the curve in one side and the other side that reaching heard immunity without a vaccin is completely unrealistic with a similar intensity (if not higher), that make it look that flattening the curve is more than just having almost everyone infected over 12-18 month instead of 2-3 months.

To merely "Flatten the Curve" was always a terrible strategy for this particular virus. It was just very pleasing to a certain segment of people on Twitter, maybe they felt smarter looking at those two curves. It wasn't a good slogan either as it was unnecessarily obscure, "Slow the Contagion" would work better or just "Stay Home".

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1 hour ago, FilmBuff said:

Really frustrating to not see the numbers drop off more in the USA after all the lockdown for the past 2 months. People still catching this damn thing. 

 

Known numbers are one thing reality is an other, with how testing was managed that is really hard to access (how much it went down or not over time), but death wise (total death has covid death is like testing hard to access) it seem to have went down by a giant amount.

 

That what the USA in 2020, until april 12 look like:

 

AREA SEASON WEEK NUM INFLUENZA DEATHS NUM PNEUMONIA DEATHS Total death estimate TOTAL DEATHS PERCENT COMPLETE
National 2019-20 1 422 4,047 59,576 59,576 100%
National 2019-20 2 464 4,077 59,919 59,919 100%
National 2019-20 3 453 3,976 58,400 58,400 100%
National 2019-20 4 484 3,814 57,855 57,855 100%
National 2019-20 5 471 3,696 57,385 57,385 100%
National 2019-20 6 505 3,694 57,996 57,996 100%
National 2019-20 7 534 3,720 57,339 57,339 100%
National 2019-20 8 552 3,592 57,336 57,336 100%
National 2019-20 9 622 3,706 57,630 57,630 100%
National 2019-20 10 605 3,787 57,184 57,184 100%
National 2019-20 11 594 3,774 55,658 55,658 100%
National 2019-20 12 515 4,275 55,790 55,790 100%
National 2019-20 13 419 5,769 58,824 58,824 100%
National 2019-20 14 444 9,137 66,580 66,580 100%
National 2019-20 15 444 10,866 71,879 71,879 100%
National 2019-20 16 239 9,724 67,059 67,059 100%
National 2019-20 17 127 7,499 57,680 57,680 100%
National 2019-20 18 43 4,453 47,603 43,033 90.40%
National 2019-20 19 7 1,667 47,543 20,681 43.50%

 

 

Death seem to have peaked at week 15 (April 6, 2020 - April 12, 2020) about 3 week after people staying at home and taking extra precaution around march 16 and official around march 23.

 

COVID excess death  by week 17 (April 20, 2020, April 26, 2020) seem to be low enough to be balanced by how lesser death you have with reduced activity, COVID death were still probably significant it is just that removing so many death with shutdowns (regular flu, road crash, and so on is a big amount) and judging by the pneumonia death could be gone back to regular level by weekend 19 (may 4 to may 10).

 

Looking at global death graph, it does look to have worked, with 3 week where it was out of control in NY.

 

 

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On 5/16/2020 at 8:38 AM, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

3736 (92.9k) Fri, May 15

3940 (92.8k) Thu, May 14

3726 (94.7k) Wed, May 13

3562 (85.9k) Tue, May 12

3592 (64.7k) Mon, May 11

4311 (85.8k) Sun, May 10

2952 (85.4k) Sat, May 9

3339 (80.4k) Fri, May 8

3344 (80.6k)

3602 (84.8k)

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

4972 (94.3k) Sat, May 16

3736 (92.9k) Fri, May 15

3940 (92.8k) Thu, May 14

3726 (94.7k) Wed, May 13

3562 (85.9k) Tue, May 12

3592 (64.7k) Mon, May 11

4311 (85.8k) Sun, May 10

2952 (85.4k) Sat, May 9

3339 (80.4k) Fri, May 8

3344 (80.6k)

 

Steady Mon-Fri and a big bump over the weekend is the norm it seems. Lockdown 4.0 with more relaxations begins Mon.

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30 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

 

Disney upon seeing all the money they're gonna lose from people who weren't planning on going to the parks in the foreseeable future in the first place:

 

Llama Emperor GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

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Masks and hand sanitizers .... Tenet is not changing its July release date.  

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Posted (edited)

All cafes should be closed through 2020 for social distancing

Edited by A Marvel Fanboy

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8 hours ago, FilmBuff said:

Really frustrating to not see the numbers drop off more in the USA after all the lockdown for the past 2 months. People still catching this damn thing. 

They do go down, in those states where lockdowns were in place. But now it's spreading to states hitherto not affected, and those make up for the dropping numbers elsewhere.

It's not that different from Europe: Watched as a whole, Europe's numbers don't seem to drop much. But in the countries hit earlier, they do drop (Italy, Spain, France, then Germany, Austria, Netherlands ...) - now the hotspot is the UK, and there are probably new hotspots developing in eastern Europe (Romania).

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7 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

To merely "Flatten the Curve" was always a terrible strategy for this particular virus. It was just very pleasing to a certain segment of people on Twitter, maybe they felt smarter looking at those two curves. It wasn't a good slogan either as it was unnecessarily obscure, "Slow the Contagion" would work better or just "Stay Home".

What is supposed to be so terrible about it?

 

The whole idea was to make sure the healthcare-system isn't falling apart due to overload. This was never meant as the solution to the virus, more as a means to keep things from spiralling out of control. Because when that happens, you are screwed, and the dead lie around in droves, as could be seen in Italy.

 

To act as if the whole strategy consisted of "flattening the curve" and then be done with it is just weird. Such a claim makes no sense at all, because it has never been the entire strategy.

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Look we locked down at first as we went into a tactical Retreat to deal with the virus. If we did not we would have had millions of deaths.

 

Now we are much better prepared at our hospitals and our government and as a society we have a different mindset.

 

 

Now we can return to some normalcy in life and I can meet my fiance and visit my family and go shopping but doing so by respecting social distancing and following hygiene.

 

You don't have to stay locked up at home for a year and fall into Despair and depression.

 

I am still running my businesses and worked towards getting a new job in my main career at the bank and will get married this year.

 

Point is you can still continue your life it's frankly a new normal.

 

@Kalo

 

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15 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:


Exactly, our “lockdowns” have been more like a strong suggestion with almost no enforcement on an individual level (a few businesses have gotten slapped here or there).

if light lockdowns were enough for have americans up in the streets protesting, (and some even took their frustrations on the workers who told them to wear masks for public safety), I can't imagine what a real lockdown (with curfew and everything) would have caused...

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

Look we locked down at first as we went into a tactical Retreat to deal with the virus. If we did not we would have had millions of deaths.

 

Now we are much better prepared at our hospitals and our government and as a society we have a different mindset.

 

 

Now we can return to some normalcy in life and I can meet my fiance and visit my family and go shopping but doing so by respecting social distancing and following hygiene.

 

You don't have to stay locked up at home for a year and fall into Despair and depression.

 

I am still running my businesses and worked towards getting a new job in my main career at the bank and will get married this year.

 

Point is you can still continue your life it's frankly a new normal.

 

@Kalo

 

We also locked down to figure things out...I don't know if we remember in March, but hospitals were not only overwhelmed, but they were also throwing treatments at a wall and seeing what stuck...we now know what NOT to do to treat this (we still may not know what TO do, but making sure we don't make it worse was highly helpful to survival rates)...and we have treatments we couldn't have, like the survivor plasma, until we had some survivors who got "cured", which takes time on a virus that takes awhile.

 

We bought time to gear up, try out, and wait out the flu/corona combo timing (which also seemed pretty dang lethal).  That was priceless.

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7 hours ago, George Parr said:

The whole idea was to make sure the healthcare-system isn't falling apart due to overload. This was never meant as the solution to the virus, more as a means to keep things from spiralling out of control. Because when that happens, you are screwed, and the dead lie around in droves, as could be seen in Italy.

No need to say "Flatten the Curve" then, "Stay Home" is enough. The idea that doing anything to fight the contagion is "flattening the curve" is bizarre. The logic of "flattening the curve" is that you let the virus infect almost everyone, your only goal is that ICU beds are not overwhelmed. Look again at those two curves.

 

In the case of the coronavirus, "flattening the curve" means those ICU beds would be full for months/years and 1% of the population would die. Almost all countries are now trying to do a lot more than "flattening the curve", and (for now) succeeding.

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