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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

if light lockdowns were enough for have americans up in the streets protesting, (and some even took their frustrations on the workers who told them to wear masks for public safety), I can't imagine what a real lockdown (with curfew and everything) would have caused...

 

 

 

To be honest I think politicians in north  america realized curfews and full lockdown were a non starter.

 

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Lockdown extended in India for another 2 weeks (3rd extension now) till end of May. By the end of the month we will be 70 days in, in one of the strictest lockdowns. 
 

Malls, restaurants (except for deliveries), cafes, gyms, movie theatres, parks, theme parks, beaches, hotels, religious places, schools and colleges, domestic and international flights, metro trains will remain closed. No large gathering will be allowed for any event. 
 

Standalone shops not in malls will be allowed to open but with limited hours and possibly odd even working days. Social distancing and masks are mandatory. Sports events can be held but without spectators. 
 

Free movement except for essential reason will still not be allowed from 7pm to 7am

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20 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

It's that guy again... Typical "flatten the curve" mentality a couple of months ago, empty platitudes and nonsense (how has any of the response to the virus been "natural"?) since then.

 

This disease crisis is too important to be left to media-hungry Western doctors.

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1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:


The idea that a large portion of the population is already immune has been contradicted now by numerous seroprevalence studies, and not supported by any. The most infected places like New York and Lombardy have had about 10-20% of the population infected, which is not nearly enough for "herd immunity", which would probably require around 70%.

If the virus was allowed to "burn out naturally", it's clear that the death toll would be horrific.

His views aren't supported by the data and are not shared by the vast majority of epidemiologists. (I think it's worth nothing here that he's actually an oncologist - his specialty is cancer.)

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2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

No need to say "Flatten the Curve" then, "Stay Home" is enough. The idea that doing anything to fight the contagion is "flattening the curve" is bizarre. The logic of "flattening the curve" is that you let the virus infect almost everyone, your only goal is that ICU beds are not overwhelmed. Look again at those two curves.

 

In the case of the coronavirus, "flattening the curve" means those ICU beds would be full for months/years and 1% of the population would die. Almost all countries are now trying to do a lot more than "flattening the curve", and (for now) succeeding.

What are countries doing that is more than flatting the curve? What do you suggest that the 3rd most populated country in the world do if not to flatten the curve? We can't shut down businesses forever (or even a few months) before millions will be on the streets due to a lack of funds to buy housing or food. 

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It looks like the "epicenter" of the pandemic has now moved from Europe to the Americas, where more than 50% of global new cases have been confirmed for the last couple of days. Half of the countries in the top 10 of confirmed 'New Cases' are in that region. The situation is especially worrying in countries like Brazil or Mexico where relatively few tests have been done.

Quote

 

 

But, cute PPE:

Quote

 

 

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Two notes on this Sunday. With outbreaks in places like Mexico and Singapore, doesn't seem like we should expect warmer weather to do much to slow the virus down.

 

Also, this piece of potentially bad news from the US Navy. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/16/uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-test-positive-coronavirus-261873

 

People alot smarter than me can weigh in on the sailors testing positive after going through it and then testing negative. Do you need to have a certain level of 'sickness' to build up enough antibodies to have immunity? I'm also assuming this could just be a testing issue.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Two notes on this Sunday. With outbreaks in places like Mexico and Singapore, doesn't seem like we should expect warmer weather to do much to slow the virus down.

On the other hand...

 

 

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And this makes sense in my opinion.  A 25 percent reduction in efficiency still allows for an outbreak if nothing else is done, hence seeing things from other warm/hot climes.  But I do think it is a factor in planning strategies.

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Everyone should be obligated to wear a mask/cover, it is a cheap measure and now scientifically proven effective (on hamsters at least):

Quote

 

 

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33 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

With outbreaks in places like Mexico and Singapore,

It could be the very low volume of testing (and or younger population), but Mexico as almost no one dying according to their numbers.

 

They are 128 millions and their numbers look like the province of Quebec (8 millions people).

 

I feel like Summer if something like the 25% lower R0 could be the nice boost, one that make place at 1.1, 1.2 go under 1.0 and make the place to near 1.0 to have step drop go under 0.7 to have step drop.

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Just now, Porthos said:

 

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suspect he was referring to a not-at-all-hypothetical case where they are still going to make vaccines even if it any particular one turns out to be ineffective and cost be damned.

 

Which is a good thing!  They should be doing this with a TON of candidates.  Ramp up manufacturing on them all just in case they do pan out.

 

But sakes alive did he fuck up in explaining the concept.

 

...

 

Mind I might be giving him too much of the benefit of the doubt, but it seems to be a logical enough stance to try to pry out of that word salad.

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5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

suspect he was referring to a not-at-all-hypothetical case where they are still going to make vaccines even if it any particular one turns out to be ineffective and cost be damned.

Yes, that is probably what he meant.

 

This (new?) talking point is more troubling:

Quote

On CNN’S State of the Union, interviewer Jake Tapper asked Azar why the U.S. has less than 5% of the world population, yet makes up about 30% of the total global reported coronavirus deaths — nearly 90,000 so far. Azar denied that the United States has fared worse than other countries, pointing out that the American public has “co-morbidities” that put them at risk of severe complications from COVID-19.

 

Noting that the American public is “very diverse,” Azar said that the United States has “a population with significant unhealthy co-morbidities that do make many individuals in our communities, in particular African American, minority communities, particularly at risk here, because of significant underlying disease, health disparities, and disease co-morbidities.”

"Don't worry, only those people are dying."

Edited by MrGlass2
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5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But sakes alive did he fuck up in explaining the concept.

 

It just miss a word:

“The president said that’s not acceptable,” he continued. “We’re going to scale up commercial manufacturing and produce hundreds of millions of doses at risk. They may not pan out, they may not prove to be safe and effective but we’ll have it so we can begin administration right away.”

 

Change it for :

 

“The president said that’s not acceptable,” he continued. “We’re going to scale up commercial manufacturing and produce hundreds of millions of doses at risk. They may not pan out, they may not prove to be safe and effective but we’ll have it so we can begin administration right away if they turn out to be good.”

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It just miss a word:

“The president said that’s not acceptable,” he continued. “We’re going to scale up commercial manufacturing and produce hundreds of millions of doses at risk. They may not pan out, they may not prove to be safe and effective but we’ll have it so we can begin administration right away.”

 

Change it for :

 

“The president said that’s not acceptable,” he continued. “We’re going to scale up commercial manufacturing and produce hundreds of millions of doses at risk. They may not pan out, they may not prove to be safe and effective but we’ll have it so we can begin administration right away if they turn out to be good.”

 

 

Well, yes.  Explaining things so they don't sound bad would be good! :lol: 

 

As it is, it makes it sound like "These might be dangerous, but we'll have them so people can use them if they feel like rolling the dice".  Makes it seem like they don't care about product safety as opposed to covering all the bases.

 

And as I type out the "rolling the dice" sentence, just think how the anti-vaxxers are gonna react to that little clip. qnqGT0e.png

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I think it is the interviewer jobs there as well in that clip, to clarify statement like those and push back.

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42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

And this makes sense in my opinion.  A 25 percent reduction in efficiency still allows for an outbreak if nothing else is done, hence seeing things from other warm/hot climes.  But I do think it is a factor in planning strategies.

I agree, it is one factor that will help a little. Won't help if people decide not to practice good social distancing etiquette, but if most do it will help during the summer. 

 

of course that means you likely need different strategies in the non summer months than the summer ones. 

It could also create a false sense of security. Say cases consistently decline during the summer, people might start thinking everything is good and let their guard down a little and then fall comes around and slams things. 

 

Most importantly it means that messaging is so important for people to understand there are some natural pluses in summer that won't be there the rest of the year so don't take things for granted or lower your guard too much. My concern is that some will message it as 'everything is awesome, let it rip'.

 

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35 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It could be the very low volume of testing (and or younger population), but Mexico as almost no one dying according to their numbers.

 

They are 128 millions and their numbers look like the province of Quebec (8 millions people).

 

I feel like Summer if something like the 25% lower R0 could be the nice boost, one that make place at 1.1, 1.2 go under 1.0 and make the place to near 1.0 to have step drop go under 0.7 to have step drop.

It's been reported that Mexico is greatly underreporting its numbers. 

One news article from Mexico this week had a quote from an anonymous government source that cases and deaths were at least 5X higher than the official numbers and the government wasn't really trying to report accurately at this point. The article also mentioned visiting crematoriums that are running 24 hours a day and expect to do so for the next few weeks at least.

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