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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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20 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Probably a dumb question but could they try to do this in enclosed spaces like cinemas with air conditioning?

 

This has been addressed already, but one thing I'd add - droplets outdoors ultimately get dispersed in a much larger volume of air.
 

16 hours ago, cax16 said:

 

Yes. There are a number of teams that have found or created human antibodies that would target the COVID-19 virus and expressed them in transgenic organisms. A neutralizing antibody would of course act as a cure, and is expected to be fairly safe.

The main reason why you haven't heard about antibodies being used as a treatment before for infectious disease is that they're very expensive. Apparently the cost has been coming down because of advances in biotechnology, even so I would expect it would take time to scale up production for COVID-19. I would guess you'll see antibody treatments being available before a vaccine, but reserved for the severely ill.
 

1 hour ago, AndyK said:

Seems the Professor is more qualified than we give him credit for.

 

 


Immunology is not epidemiology. I think my point stands - when he comments on the trajectory of the virus being similar in different locations being potentially due to it "petering out" naturally, he's commenting outside of his expertise. More importantly though, he's going against the consensus of epidemiologists. (which is that the main factor that drove down the spread was interventions)

It's true that every good idea in science was once novel and contrary to consensus. But the converse is not true; the vast majority of novel ideas turn out to be wrong. (I'm not definitively saying that it's wrong that herd immunity might be at a substantially lower percentage than 60-70%. Rather, that for the time being it's a minority view, and I don't think there's enough evidence to gamble on it.)

That said, what he says above I think would find wide agreement, presuming that he's referring to what appears to be a widely variable immune response (and children both being much less affected, but with some developing an autoimmune-like response weeks after an often unnoticed infection).

Edited by Jason
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11 minutes ago, Jason said:

when he comments on the trajectory of the virus being similar in different locations being potentially due to it "petering out" naturally, he's commenting outside of his expertise. More importantly though, he's going against the consensus of epidemiologists. (which is that the main factor that drove down the spread was interventions)

When I did took a look of when country death peaked:

 

Netherland, Italy, France, Spain, Swiss, : between 30 March 2020-5 April 2020
Sweden/UK/Belgium/USA: between 6 April 2020 - 12 April 2020

 

And it made me wonder how much was it due to the nature of the virus (rapidly the susceptilble to get it do and then a resistance occur that make some R0 go under 1.0 ?) and how it transmit that the trajectory was so similar about what felt so different interventions (in nature and in timing) or was it that the interventions was in major part private and due to the so global nature of news people in western country acted in a very similar way at very similar time (with the Italy-France-Spain type of deeply hurt sooner place being just one week before the others).

 

Looking at the google data, I feel it is strongly the later, Tom Hanks got it, news that it was bad in Italy was everywhere people started to act with precaution around the 10 March almost everywhere at the same time and more officially strongly around the 20-23, thus the very similar timing, they all did enough to reach an under 1.0 RO what change is how step the down curve after it by the country with stronger interventions.

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US Death Tolls [US Population]:

US Civil War:     625k - 750k            (35.4m [1860])

WW2:                419k                        (133m [1941])

WW1:                116k                        (103m [1917])

COVID-19:        98.7k and counting (331m)

Vietnam War:    58.2k                       (192m [1964])

Korean War:      36.5k                       (152m [1952])

 

I include the US population for context, not for minimization purposes.  Also am including the start date for all of the wars*.  As of Memorial Day, by my rough estimate, this outbreak will be about as deadly as the Vietnam War, in relative terms using 1964 population numbers.   The 1973 US population (when the Vietnam War 'ended', at least for direct US involvement) would be about 212m.  That would be the equivalent of 90.9k deaths, if there was the same percentage of US casualties.

* Vietnam is something of a special case, so I went with the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution as the start date.

 

So, if we really want to try to get our heads around how deadly COVID-19 has been in the first couple of months, as deadly as the Vietnam War in its totality is about right.

 

A somber reflection heading into Memorial Day, I think.

 

Edited by Porthos
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China reports no new cases for the first time in pandemic

 

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If you want to understand just how shitty PPP is look at European countries unemployment then look at ours. Mind you it's so difficult to file in America at least 20% roughly are unemployed. Factor in underemployment and early/forced retirement and the numbers are insane.

 

What's crazy is we screwed up even harder on the medical side. Thousands of people are furloughed or fired. It's going to lead to a SIGNIFICANT reduction in the spending for the year. V shaped recovery is not only impossible we are looking an extremely mediocre summer. Daycares are packed, camps are cancelled, and very free trips will occur.

 

I don't quite understand how USA went from the gold standard to straight mediocre in many regards. 

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I long for the country that pushed itself to the brink for space exploration. Led with and respected science. Used faith as a tool to bring people together not shun and dismiss others. A place where no matter your ethnicity or heritage you could be proud to be called an American. It's been nearly a decade since I felt that way.

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26 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


I do. :ph34r: 

Before Trump we had so many issues. We allowed insurance companies to form monopolies and screw over Americans. Healthcare insurance and healthcare costs have went up faster than even state tuition.

 

Yes America pays well but if your child breaks a leg? That will be $3000 please. Dog gets gravely ill? $10000 or let them die is your choice.

 

It's such a crazy system to live on.

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21 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Before Trump we had so many issues. We allowed insurance companies to form monopolies and screw over Americans. Healthcare insurance and healthcare costs have went up faster than even state tuition.

 

Yes America pays well but if your child breaks a leg? That will be $3000 please. Dog gets gravely ill? $10000 or let them die is your choice.

 

It's such a crazy system to live on.

It's a deep seeded rot.  Not the thread to really get into it, but there is a long history of ossification of empires throughout history.  And when I say 'empire' I don't just mean in the traditional multi-national, multi-ethnic sense, but when Great Powers stop evolving internally and get far too set in their own traditions.  

 

Ever since the 1950s and 1960s there has been something of a freeze on political structure in the US when it comes to institutions.  The US Senate hasn't changed in size since the introduction of Hawaii in 1960.  The US House hasn't changed since the 1920s.  The US Supreme Court hasn't changed since the late 1860s.

 

(The current Appellate Court Structure dates back to 1982 at least and is one few current forms of US governance that is still evolving, if glacially)

 

A political system designed for either 105m people (the last time the House increased in size) or 190m people (the last time the Senate increased in size) now has 330m people in it.  Traditions borne of a quirk of fate in 2000 (the so-called Red/Blue state divide) has become more and more entrenched over the last 20 years.  Polarization is now going on at such a level that that was last seen in the late 19th century.

 

Add to all of that a shifting of wealth and increase of mass media and forces shaping the two main political parties (I am being verrrrrrrry careful how I describe both here) and it's little wonder that the US is in the shape it is in.

 

There is a lot more here. A lot lot more.  But I think ossification is one of the root causes that doesn't get nearly enough attention as other factors,

Edited by Porthos
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Lockdown has pretty much gone out the window here in Toronto

 

Warm weather came and govt lessen restrictions and people under 35 are like ehhhh 

 

It was expected... many parts of Canada are frozen from November to late April, so the idea people will lockdown in the summer is a non starter. 

 

Regardless with the number of cases i highly doubt things will shut down again. 

 

oey75bgbik051.jpg

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Lockdown has pretty much gone out the window here in Toronto

 

It was expected... many parts of Canada are frozen from Novemeber to late April, so the idea people will lockdown in the summer is a non starter. 

 

oey75bgbik051.jpg

 

Yeah, that photo is all over my Twitter timeline.

 

Whether you agree with it or not, it's clear human nature is prevailing.

Edited by JB33
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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ever since the 1950s and 1960s there has been something of a freeze on political structure in the US when it comes to institutions.  The US Senate hasn't changed in size since the introduction of Hawaii in 1960.  The US House hasn't changed since the 1920s.  The US Supreme Court hasn't changed since the late 1860s.

As an addendum, I think this ossification and lack of change in US political structure is one of the reasons why there has been an evolution of Senate rules over the last 12 years.  There was (and continues to be) tremendous political pressure building up inside the Senate (and outside of it, for that matter) and one of the few release valves there are is to change the rules of how the Senate works.  Or doesn't work, for that matter.

 

As time goes on, I suspect those release valves will continue to blow, but only be a temporary fix.

 

...

 

This is now frightfully offtopic, so I'll leave it at that lest it get into actual political discussion and not just looking at the systems at work within the US. :blush:

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4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Lockdown has pretty much gone out the window here in Toronto

 

It was expected... many parts of Canada are frozen from Novemeber to late April, so the idea people will lockdown in the summer is a non starter. 

 

oey75bgbik051.jpg

 

How much of that is the lens at work though?  That could be far less crowded than it looks.

 

(also being outdoors might not be as problematic/risky as working a ten hour shift indoors, unprotected)

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4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

How much of that is the lens at work though?  That could be far less crowded than it looks.

 

(also being outdoors might not be as problematic/risky as working a ten hour shift indoors, unprotected)

We may not agree on everything @Porthos but I've always appreciated your common sense.

Edited by JB33
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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

As an addendum, I think this ossification and lack of change in US political structure is one of the reasons why there has been an evolution of Senate rules over the last 12 years.  There was (and continues to be) tremendous political pressure building up inside the Senate (and outside of it, for that matter) and one of the few release valves there are is to change the rules of how the Senate works.  Or doesn't work, for that matter.

 

As time goes on, I suspect those release valves will continue to blow, but only be a temporary fix.

 

...

 

This is now frightfully offtopic, so I'll leave it at that lest it get into actual political discussion and not just looking at the systems at work within the US. :blush:

It does link somewhat to the virus. Political action has become so polarized that the concept of yielding or conceding anything is tantamount to losing. 

 

It's led to inaction or hobbled measures that are ineffective epic failures like cash or clunkers, or PPP

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20 hours ago, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

6507 (103.5k) Fri, May 22

6024 (103.5k) Thu, May 21

5547 (108.1k) Wed, May 20

6148 (101.k) Tue, May 19

4629 (75.2k) Mon, May 18

5049 (93.4k) Sun, May 17

4972 (94.3k) Sat, May 16

3736 (92.9k) Fri, May 15

3940 (92.8k) Thu, May 14

3726 (94.7k) Wed, May 13

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

6663 (115.4k) Sat, May 23

6507 (103.5k) Fri, May 22

6024 (103.5k) Thu, May 21

5547 (108.1k) Wed, May 20

6148 (101.k) Tue, May 19

4629 (75.2k) Mon, May 18

5049 (93.4k) Sun, May 17

4972 (94.3k) Sat, May 16

3736 (92.9k) Fri, May 15

3940 (92.8k) Thu, May 14

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41 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Lockdown has pretty much gone out the window here in Toronto

 

Warm weather came and govt lessen restrictions and people under 35 are like ehhhh 

 

It was expected... many parts of Canada are frozen from November to late April, so the idea people will lockdown in the summer is a non starter. 

 

Regardless with the number of cases i highly doubt things will shut down again. 

 

oey75bgbik051.jpg

 

That was today ? 0 mask is a bit surprising.

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39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

How much of that is the lens at work though?  That could be far less crowded than it looks.

 

(also being outdoors might not be as problematic/risky as working a ten hour shift indoors, unprotected)

 

 

Based on local reports about 10,000 people were in that park and people were so close together police would not enter to break it up due to COvid risk.

 

https://www.cp24.com/news/it-s-selfish-officials-disappointed-to-see-large-crowds-at-downtown-toronto-park-amid-pandemic-1.4951953

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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7 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That was today ? 0 mask is a bit surprising.

We really do live in a bubble on the internet. I can't speak for other communities because I've barely been outside my town, but where I live seeing people wearing masks is fairly uncommon. I'd say at most it's a 85-15 split between people not wearing masks-people wearing masks.

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