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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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2 hours ago, The GOAT said:

 

 

Death in the first 18 weeks of the year's

 

2017-18 75465
2018-19 73781
2019-20 77031

 

I am curious which period they are using for pneumonia death, for the first 18 weeks:

2017-18 4645
2018-19 4231
2019-20 5566

 

Not too far from all of the excess Pneumonia death and more to be counted has COVID one.

 

Using this:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

 

(people should double check my excel work, because the delta is giant)

 

Edited by Barnack
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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

seems like what is going on in Russia, 1:1

Russia death rate seem quite standard by now.

 

1.07% twice as high than perfectly tested country like Iceland, not too far from Cruise Ship 1.82% (but that a much more older population and before any treatment were known).

 

There is a more aggressive autopsy to filter out aggressively and find other cause of death, but Russia with is very low older male population versus the rest of the world, how recent a large of case are and high test level by case should be on the low death rate side at the moment.

 

2 Weeks ago case in Russia where quite lower than now, there tend to have a lag in death (except for Singapore that stayed near 0 because it was an explosion of case among young healthy migrant worker). Russia early death rate is a bit higher than early Germany when they had about that level of deaths back in the days I think.

Edited by Barnack
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18 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Russia death rate seem quite standard by now.

 

1.07% twice as high than perfectly tested country like Iceland, not too far from Cruise Ship 1.82% (but that a much more older population and before any treatment were known).

 

There is a more aggressive autopsy to filter out aggressively and find other cause of death, but Russia with is very low older male population versus the rest of the world, how recent a large of case are and high test level by case should be on the low death rate side at the moment.

 

2 Weeks ago case in Russia where quite lower than now, there tend to have a lag in death (except for Singapore that stayed near 0 because it was an explosion of case among young healthy migrant worker).

I meant the fact that there seem to be too more people dying of pneumonia and less of Covid19 than is expected.

Here's an article from back in March that adresses the situation:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-coronavirus-health-russia/sharp-increase-in-moscow-pneumonia-cases-fuels-fears-over-coronavirus-statistics-idUSKBN216305

 

that one is newer:

https://www.rferl.org/a/why-is-russia-coronavirus-death-toll-so-low/30585706.html

 

and this one adresses the problems with classification (which is btw a "problem" around the world and makes death numbers a bit difficult to compare, like Belgium's for instance:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/08/russia-is-boasting-about-low-coronavirus-deaths-the-numbers-are-deceiving-a70220

 

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2 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

I meant the fact that there seem to be too more people dying of pneumonia and less of Covid19 than is expected.

Here's an article from back in March that adresses the situation:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-coronavirus-health-russia/sharp-increase-in-moscow-pneumonia-cases-fuels-fears-over-coronavirus-statistics-idUSKBN216305

I think the first article is different, it is talking about pneumonia case not pneumonia death, a population more fearing about coughing+ healthcare taking it more seriously could find more pneumonia case.

 

I would like a gender/age adjusted figure with other countries that had a under 5% positive test rate to see how out of the bound the Russian numbers really is (is it more undercounted than the average country undercounting)

 

Germany death rate for example:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105512/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-gender-germany/

 

If you remove the over 70 males would change drastically, Russian have not that made of those to die to start with:

 

350px-Russiapop.svg.png

 

vs germany (that have almost no drop from the 65-69 to the next 2 age groups among male):

1280px-Germanypop.svg.png

 

Because of how young Russia is specially on the male side, that the usual Euro/Western country could be misleading to judge how well it is doing, if they do mediocre they should have way less death than them.

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Because of how young Russia is specially on the male side, that the usual Euro/Western country could be misleading to judge how well it is doing, if they do mediocre they should have way less death than them.

yep, that was brought up several times but I'm sceptical; there's a reason why the russian population is so young and it's not because of many births, it's because of the terrible general health, especially among males ... drinking and smoking are ubiquitous - if there ever was a population with "pre-existing conditions", well, that's them.

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2 minutes ago, AndyK said:

 

We had two-week intevals between easing steps here in Austria and really, the curve looks the same - it seems the one thing to avoid is multiple people in confined spaces with loud talking / singing. Everything else might just work fine with a little bit of common sense (keeping the distance, use a mask if no distance is possible).

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1 minute ago, AndyK said:

 

I was going to ask if testing volume kept up ? But the number of case is so low probably not an issue.

 

And looking at this:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-05-16_CH_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

 

People did immediately started to open up, I imagine what they are still doing as mesure (they are still taking precautions that we never do during flu season I will imagine and are not at 100% back yet) + summer could be enough.

 

Like he say in that thread Swiss was a place hit really hard (apparently mid april already over 5% of Geneva had it up to near 10% not too long after), you start to have a base of the most people at risk of transmitting having had it already.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20088898v1

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30 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

The main reason the death toll in Russia was/is so "low" is that they tested widely and early, and identified relatively more of the infected population than most Western countries. So the mortality percentage was very low during the first weeks of the contagion.

 

The exact same thing happened with Germany, the low mortality rate was then praised and Germany was often given as a model on par with South Korea (and still is, despite a much worse outcome now). For Russia, it has instead resulted in all sorts of conspiracy theories in Western media - just like for China. Even though Russia is indeed counting a lower number of covid deaths than the WHO norms (excluding ~50% after autopsy), they are doing so explicitly: just wait a few weeks and the mortality rate will look normal.

 

If they really wanted to "hide" covid deaths, they just needed to test very few people during the first weeks, like many countries have done. They did the opposite, and will probably end up the major country with the highest tests/pop.

Quote

yep, that was brought up several times but I'm sceptical; there's a reason why the russian population is so young and it's not because of many births, it's because of the terrible general health, especially among males ... drinking and smoking are ubiquitous - if there ever was a population with "pre-existing conditions", well, that's them.

Reportedly, smoking protects against severe covid symptoms.

 

Edited by MrGlass2
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And maybe this Florida thing is legit, but I will wait for a better analysis than some Reddit thread.

 

But we do know that Florida is hiding where some people are dying (more specifically, in which nursing homes).

Edited by MrGlass2
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A lot of the house and safety regulations don't make sense locally.

 

 

Hundreds of people are able to gather without much Social distancing or without Masks to shop at a winners or home depot or random stores near me.

 

 

However if 6 people Gather in 3  to 4 cars in a parking lot and remain social distanced.. 10 cop cars show up and give everyone 750 dollar fines lol

 

 

I would say they need to relax the rules on Gatherings because first of all people are breaking the rules left right and Center anyways as frankly it makes no sense.

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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3 hours ago, Maggie said:

This is bad news:

 

He experienced a severe reaction to Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate. He’s still a believer

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna-vaccine-candidate-trial-participant-severe-reaction/

 


No, not really.

All of the people in the trial with severe reactions had received the highest dose of the vaccine. A really important detail that makes the overall results of the Moderna trial good news is that the participates who had received low and moderate doses produced neutralizing antibodies at a level comparable to that resulting from natural infection and therefore probably sufficient for immunity.

In fact, the phase 2/3 trials will not proceed with the high dose of the vaccine not just because of the adverse reactions but also because the low and medium doses produced a sufficient antibody response.

 

Overall, the phase 1 trial results are (cautiously) good news, with the usual caveat that as a phase 1 trial, the sample was quite small.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna.html

 

Quote

Moderna said that additional tests in mice that were vaccinated and then infected found that the vaccine could prevent the virus from replicating in their lungs, and that the animals had levels of neutralizing antibodies comparable to those in the people who had received the vaccine.

 

Three doses of the vaccine were tested: low, medium and high. These initial results are based on tests of the low and medium doses. The only adverse effects at those doses were redness and soreness in one patient’s arm where the shot was given.

But at the highest dose, three patients had fever, muscle pains and headaches, Dr. Zaks said, adding that the symptoms went away after a day.

 

Edited by Jason
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8 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

And maybe this Florida thing is legit, but I will wait for a better analysis than some Reddit thread.

 

But we do know that Florida is hiding where some people are dying (more specifically, in which nursing homes).

Those numbers specifically are not.

 

2019 Weeks 1-18: 4467

2020 Weeks 1-18: 5969

 

Still a difference of >1500 

 

And the difference is basically from mid-march to mid-may.  So huge increases when the #s ought to be going down.  Just a coincidence that the huge spike was before the lockdowns

 

Here's a chart:

 

Y5ueaEI.png

 

The national difference is > 32,000

 

My understanding that coronary deaths are way higher also.

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And the NRL is targeted having limited crowds back in July. 
 

Also, pubs and clubs can have up to 50 people in NSW from Monday and the ski season opens 22nd June. 
 

 

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On 5/27/2020 at 10:00 AM, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

5866 (92.5k) Tue, May 26

6414 (90.2k) Mon, May 25

7111 (108.6k) Sun, May 24

6663 (115.4k) Sat, May 23

6507 (103.5k) Fri, May 22

6024 (103.5k) Thu, May 21

5547 (108.1k) Wed, May 20

6148 (101.k) Tue, May 19

4629 (75.2k) Mon, May 18

5049 (93.4k) Sun, May 17

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

7271 (116.0k) Wed, May 27

5866 (92.5k) Tue, May 26

6414 (90.2k) Mon, May 25

7111 (108.6k) Sun, May 24

6663 (115.4k) Sat, May 23

6507 (103.5k) Fri, May 22

6024 (103.5k) Thu, May 21

5547 (108.1k) Wed, May 20

6148 (101.k) Tue, May 19

4629 (75.2k) Mon, May 18

Edited by a2k
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9 hours ago, Maggie said:

This is bad news:

 

He experienced a severe reaction to Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate. He’s still a believer

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna-vaccine-candidate-trial-participant-severe-reaction/

 

Yeah, no thanks. I read something on Twitter about there literally being more of a chance of experiencing a negative symptom from a vaccine than actually getting COVID-19 and that the person would let nature decide. Makes sense to me. 

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