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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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7 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

A lot of the house and safety regulations don't make sense locally.

 

 

Hundreds of people are able to gather without much Social distancing or without Masks to shop at a winners or home depot or random stores near me.

 

 

However if 6 people Gather in 3  to 4 cars in a parking lot and remain social distanced.. 10 cop cars show up and give everyone 750 dollar fines lol

 

 

I would say they need to relax the rules on Gatherings because first of all people are breaking the rules left right and Center anyways as frankly it makes no sense.

 

This seems awfully convenient doesn't it? What a cash grab.

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48 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Yeah, no thanks. I read something on Twitter about there literally being more of a chance of experiencing a negative symptom from a vaccine than actually getting COVID-19 and that the person would let nature decide. Makes sense to me. 


The rate of severe reactions for viral vaccines that have actually gone through the full approval process is generally about 1 in 1 million. The chances of getting COVID-19 are going to remain way, way above 1 in 1 million in the vast majority of countries, including Canada.

Mild reactions are such as soreness at the injection site are obviously more common than 1 in 1 million but are simply not comparable to getting COVID-19.

To put it mildly, it doesn't make any sense at all to suggest that there's a greater risk from a vaccination than from COVID-19.

(An exception would be someone with a known allergy to ingredients used in the vaccine. But such allergies are quite rare, and in any case that conclusion can't be drawn until an approved vaccine actually exists.)

Edited by Jason
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2 hours ago, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

7271 (116.0k) Wed, May 27

5866 (92.5k) Tue, May 26

6414 (90.2k) Mon, May 25

7111 (108.6k) Sun, May 24

6663 (115.4k) Sat, May 23

6507 (103.5k) Fri, May 22

6024 (103.5k) Thu, May 21

5547 (108.1k) Wed, May 20

6148 (101.k) Tue, May 19

4629 (75.2k) Mon, May 18

somehow India's numbers don't show any sign of a slowdown, still 6% positive results - virus is far from contained.

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I just finished my first week since the end of March. We’re only open for 5 hours Monday to Thursday and I’m on the JobKeeper amount. 

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9 hours ago, Jason said:


The rate of severe reactions for viral vaccines that have actually gone through the full approval process is generally about 1 in 1 million. The chances of getting COVID-19 are going to remain way, way above 1 in 1 million in the vast majority of countries, including Canada.

Mild reactions are such as soreness at the injection site are obviously more common than 1 in 1 million but are simply not comparable to getting COVID-19.

To put it mildly, it doesn't make any sense at all to suggest that there's a greater risk from a vaccination than from COVID-19.

(An exception would be someone with a known allergy to ingredients used in the vaccine. But such allergies are quite rare, and in any case that conclusion can't be drawn until an approved vaccine actually exists.)

The Moderna vaccine is not like any other though.

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10 hours ago, JB33 said:

This seems awfully convenient doesn't it? What a cash grab.

 

 

Well people on this board wonder why people are sort of getting fed up with some of the rules.

 

Its cause some of the rules lack any sense.

 

I think most people are just practicing common sense. Like why can you line up with a 1000 people at an Ikea like your lining up for a roller coaster but you are breaking the rules if you sit in the front yard 10 feet away to see your family lol.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, AndyK said:

The Moderna vaccine is not like any other though.


I'm very aware that RNA vaccines haven't been administed on a wide scale in humans before. But the post I replied to made a blanket statement about the risks of a vaccine being greater than COVID-19.

And even if it was specifically referring to the Moderna vaccine - anyone suggesting the Moderna vaccine will be riskier than getting COVID-19 is, to be frank, talking out of their ass. There isn't any meaningful data from the Moderna vaccine to make that assessment. A severe reaction to a high dose in a phase 1 trial simply doesn't mean anything, the final version of the vaccine will not use the high dose, and if it turns out even low doses have a high rate of severe adverse reactions in phase 2/3, it won't be approved.

Also, I think it's worth pointing out that RNA vaccines have been tested in animals before and in phase 1 human trials, and thus far the safety profile of RNA vaccines appears to be comparable (especially at the lower doses, which have been shown to be effective). The data doesn't exist to assert that they are as safe as traditional vaccines, but I think there's enough safety data to render any suggestion that they could be as risky as COVID-19 as completely absurd.

Edited by Jason
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Well, what do you know.

 

This makes a lot of sense when you consider the number of cases in Florida is comparable to the number of cases in Michigan, yet the death toll in Michigan is much higher. At this point I just assume any information coming from a GOP controlled source is misleading or flat wrong. They cannot tell the truth.

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39 minutes ago, doublejack said:

Well, what do you know.

 

This makes a lot of sense when you consider the number of cases in Florida is comparable to the number of cases in Michigan, yet the death toll in Michigan is much higher. At this point I just assume any information coming from a GOP controlled source is misleading or flat wrong. They cannot tell the truth.

 

I think the number are false (not sure if it a mistake or a fake news spreader, but not giving a link to the CDC data you used nor responding to people asking for it is not encouraging)

 

CDC states by state are here:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

 

Yearly death in the first 19 weeks are:

 

SEASON  
2015-16 4405
2016-17 4585
2017-18 4842
2018-19 4447
2019-20 5817

 

 

1,762 COVID death are more than all the excess pneumonia death of that time frame (logic has that time frame is not up to date)

 

 

If you do the same exercise for Michigan, that state seem hit way harder:

 

SEASON  
2015-16 2369
2016-17 2368
2017-18 2377
2018-19 2119
2019-20 4205

 

 

Almost doubling the death instead of a +30%

 

I would look at age group hit and percentage and testing coverage between the 2 tests (how much it is in nursing home and hospital home seem to change a death rate completely, it can go to virtually 0 like in Singapore if it prevalent among younger people to 0.55% if is distributed equally in your population, hospital infection in Europe for example was a huge driver).

 

Florida has done some of the best jobs testing in the USA, 5.5% positive return almost as good as say a world leader like Russia.

 

Michigan is average 10.3% positive (USA 10.8%) if you test 2 time more you should have a larger milder case in your denominator and a lower official death rate even if you have the same real one

Edited by Barnack
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14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

I think the number are false (not sure if it a mistake or a fake news spreader)

 

CDC states by state are here:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

 

Yearly death in the first 19 weeks are:

 

SEASON  
2015-16 4405
2016-17 4585
2017-18 4842
2018-19 4447
2019-20 5817

 

 

1,762 COVID death are more than all the excess pneumonia death of that time frame (logic has that time frame is not up to date)

 

 

If you do the same exercise for Michigan, that state seem hit way harder:

 

SEASON  
2015-16 2369
2016-17 2368
2017-18 2377
2018-19 2119
2019-20 4205

 

 

Almost doubling the death instead of a +30%

 

I would look at age group hit and percentage and testing coverage between the 2 tests.

 

Florida has done some of the best jobs testing in the USA, 5.5% positive return almost as good as say a world leader like Russia.

 

Michigan is average 10.3% positive (USA 10.8%) if you test 2 time more you should have a larger milder case in your denominator and a lower official death rate even if you have the same real one

Michigan also hasn't given up the crazy, almost criminal "send covid positive patients back to nursing homes" policy...in fact, apparently, they re-upped the mandate on May 13, so it's not a surprise Michigan is doing worse than Florida, even with a smaller overall elderly population...

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

I think the number are false (not sure if it a mistake or a fake news spreader, but not giving a link to the CDC data you used nor responding to people asking for it is not encouraging)

 

CDC states by state are here:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

 

Yearly death in the first 19 weeks are:

 

SEASON  
2015-16 4405
2016-17 4585
2017-18 4842
2018-19 4447
2019-20 5817

 

 

1,762 COVID death are more than all the excess pneumonia death of that time frame (logic has that time frame is not up to date)

 

 

If you do the same exercise for Michigan, that state seem hit way harder:

 

SEASON  
2015-16 2369
2016-17 2368
2017-18 2377
2018-19 2119
2019-20 4205

 

 

Almost doubling the death instead of a +30%

 

I would look at age group hit and percentage and testing coverage between the 2 tests (how much it is in nursing home and hospital home seem to change a death rate completely, it can go to virtually 0 like in Singapore if it prevalent among younger people to 0.55% if is distributed equally in your population, hospital infection in Europe for example was a huge driver).

 

Florida has done some of the best jobs testing in the USA, 5.5% positive return almost as good as say a world leader like Russia.

 

Michigan is average 10.3% positive (USA 10.8%) if you test 2 time more you should have a larger milder case in your denominator and a lower official death rate even if you have the same real one

First, the sources are included in the twitter discussion, if you looked there. Someone else asked for them and they were provided. One source is https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm and another is a reddit thread 

 

According to the CDC link I pasted, Florida has reported 1,953 COVID deaths as I write this. I'm assuming the number in the tweet was accurate at the time it was posted. You can also see, very clearly in the data at the same link, that the non-COVID pneumonia deaths are much higher in 2020 than in previous years. The CDC is reporting that Florida has 5,476 pneumonia deaths so far in 2020. Your own data shows that is abnormally high. The claim is ACCURATE. Florida is absolutely hiding COVID deaths.

 

Now, there is a math problem in the tweet I linked. That twitter user incorrectly distributed the annual deaths evenly throughout the year, when in fact they occur primarily in the winter months. So that 918 number is garbage. Just ignore that.

 

The fact is, Florida has about 1.400 excess pneumonia deaths so far this year. That would almost double their COVID deaths, assuming the overage is mostly from COVID. This is a cover up. DeSantis has fired people for not fudging his numbers as he wants them to.

 

 

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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Michigan also hasn't given up the crazy, almost criminal "send covid positive patients back to nursing homes" policy...in fact, apparently, they re-upped the mandate on May 13, so it's not a surprise Michigan is doing worse than Florida, even with a smaller overall elderly population...

This is a right wing talking point to bash Whitmer, and it is just a smear. The order includes very clear guidelines on how COVID positive residents should be handled in this situation. If homes aren't following the rules it just further reinforces why important infrastructure should not be left in the hands of private individuals.

 

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/whitmer-orders-nursing-homes-to-transfer-coronavirus-patients-to-separate-units-or-special-facilities.html

 

The entire purpose and intent of the order is to separate the positive residents from the ones who are COVID negative and to protect as many seniors as possible.

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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

This is a right wing talking point to bash Whitmer, and it is just a smear. The order includes very clear guidelines on how COVID positive residents should be handled in this situation. If homes aren't following the rules it just further reinforces why important infrastructure should not be left in the hands of private individuals.

 

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/whitmer-orders-nursing-homes-to-transfer-coronavirus-patients-to-separate-units-or-special-facilities.html

 

The entire purpose and intent of the order is to separate the positive residents from the ones who are COVID negative and to protect as many seniors as possible.

But FL kept them in hospitals...why not follow the best practice?  Nursing home personnel are not equipped to follow hospital-level germ avoidance...in fact, nursing homes tend to staff with the lowest paid staff they can get away with and with the least amount of supplies needed...

 

Last year, after our one "amazing" experience with LTCs and my mom, we literally paid $6K for a private ambulance to get my mom to my sister in Florida, so we could be in charge of her recovery at home.  It was that bad in an LTC.  And that's when there were no real outbreaks b/c it was August...there is no ability to provide care for any complicated or "needing regular support" situation at LTCs or nursing homes...

 

And one thing we learned early with Covid...it's complicated and folks who catch it need regular support...

 

 

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Theaters will reopen on June 22 in France, I thought it'd be a pleasant info for the forum. :)

 

And given I'm here writing something let's add that after 18 days of reopening the number of cases didn't increase in France: the number of deaths, cases..etc..is still decreasing. It might be too early to rejoice but it shows a good plan and dedication can work. As for me I didn't change my behavior from the lockdown days: social distanciation, wearing a mask where there are people (downtown, shops...) but at the same time I mostly go where there aren't many people in order to walk without having to wear a mask (because it's pretty uncomfortable).

 

And now I'm ready to play Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition, available on May 29th and I waited this for a very long time so have fun and let's make predictions once again in the future after normalcy is back :)

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2 hours ago, doublejack said:

According to the CDC link I pasted, Florida has reported 1,953 COVID deaths as I write this. I'm assuming the number in the tweet was accurate at the time it was posted. You can also see, very clearly in the data at the same link, that the non-COVID pneumonia deaths are much higher in 2020 than in previous years. The CDC is reporting that Florida has 5,476 pneumonia deaths so far in 2020. Your own data shows that is abnormally high. The claim is ACCURATE. Florida is absolutely hiding COVID deaths.

 

Now, there is a math problem in the tweet I linked. That twitter user incorrectly distributed the annual deaths evenly throughout the year, when in fact they occur primarily in the winter months. So that 918 number is garbage. Just ignore that.

 

The fact is, Florida has about 1.400 excess pneumonia deaths so far this year. That would almost double their COVID deaths, assuming the overage is mostly from COVID. This is a cover up. DeSantis has fired people for not fudging his numbers as he wants them to.

I was talking about previous year pneumonia death and that not something I do find in your link and that I still do not understand where they come from.

 

I would not call Reddit a source.

 

How is 1,400 excess pneumonia the double of the 1,953 covid deaths. It is significantly less all those pneumonia could easily have been caused by those 1,953 covid case with still a lot of room for 500 other covid patient to die from other covid caused complications.

 

Quote

Your own data shows that is abnormally high. The claim is ACCURATE. Florida is absolutely hiding COVID deaths.

Yes data show that it is abnormally high (like I said by 30$), but not more high than the claimed by Florida covid deaths, the claim is all about that it is undercounted relying on CDC pneumonia excess death, 1,400 excess pneumonia death do not support that claim that 1,953 COVID death is too few. Or I am really not understanding what is going on.

 

Are you saying that on my link on my graph that those pneumonia death exclude those suspected to be caused by COVID ?There hole point is to track respiratory viral infection that sound counter intuitive if that would be the case.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Theaters will reopen on June 22 in France, I thought it'd be a pleasant info for the forum. :)

 

And given I'm here writing something let's add that after 18 days of reopening the number of cases didn't increase in France: the number of deaths, cases..etc..is still decreasing. It might be too early to rejoice but it shows a good plan and dedication can work. As for me I didn't change my behavior from the lockdown days: social distanciation, wearing a mask where there are people (downtown, shops...) but at the same time I mostly go where there aren't many people in order to walk without having to wear a mask (because it's pretty uncomfortable).

 

And now I'm ready to play Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition, available on May 29th and I waited this for a very long time so have fun and let's make predictions once again in the future after normalcy is back :)

Welcome back, hope you enjoy Xenoblade :) 

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6 hours ago, Jason said:


I'm very aware that RNA vaccines haven't been administed on a wide scale in humans before. But the post I replied to made a blanket statement about the risks of a vaccine being greater than COVID-19.

And even if it was specifically referring to the Moderna vaccine - anyone suggesting the Moderna vaccine will be riskier than getting COVID-19 is, to be frank, talking out of their ass. There isn't any meaningful data from the Moderna vaccine to make that assessment. A severe reaction to a high dose in a phase 1 trial simply doesn't mean anything, the final version of the vaccine will not use the high dose, and if it turns out even low doses have a high rate of severe adverse reactions in phase 2/3, it won't be approved.

Also, I think it's worth pointing out that RNA vaccines have been tested in animals before and in phase 1 human trials, and thus far the safety profile of RNA vaccines appears to be comparable (especially at the lower doses, which have been shown to be effective). The data doesn't exist to assert that they are as safe as traditional vaccines, but I think there's enough safety data to render any suggestion that they could be as risky as COVID-19 as completely absurd.

That they haven't been tried large scale on humans before is reason enough to make them a very bad choice for a fast tracked vaccine.

 

They are going to have more than the normal hoops to jump though.

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