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No new local cases nationwide in Australia for the first time since the pandemic began. The 2 cases in NSW are international arrivals in hotel quarantine. 
 

 

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Here are the 2 places I like to go for data right now.

First is the site for Gu's model. He's added an awesome heat maps page for US, Europe and Global. Has things like changes in cases, estimated R,etc.

https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections

https://covid19-projections.com/maps/

FWIW, his estimated R for the US is 1.02. You can see the data that he uses to calculate it. Given the cases in the US are relatively flat right now an R somewhere around 1 makes sense. The US' R estimate is higher than every country in Western and Central Europe except Poland and Bulgaria.

The best news from Gu's site is that his long range estimate of deaths in the US has been dropping the last couple of weeks. When he initially set it out to Sept 1 it was just over 200K, as of today that is down to 183K.

 

I also like this Tableau site set up by Connor Kelly for the US. Great visualizations all the way down to metro and county levels.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ckelly2528#!/vizhome/COVIDDashboard-Public/Introduction

 

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Democratic state senator in VA (on behalf of 2 clients) sues the democratic governor of VA in state and federal court over the lockdown (note, VA has all Dem rule right now).  This could be a turning point for phases to drop quickly everywhere, depending how these cases go, especially the federal one...

 

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/06/lawsuit-northam-covid-19-unconstitutional/

Edited by TwoMisfits

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On 6/8/2020 at 8:44 PM, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

10884 (142.1k) 7.7% Sun, Jun 7

10408 (137.9k) 7.5% Sat, Jun 6

9472 (143.7k) 6.6% Fri, Jun 5

9847 (139.5k) 7.1% Thu, Jun 4

9638 (137.2k) 7.0% Wed, Jun 3

8815 (128.9k) 6.8% Tue, Jun 2

7725 (100.2k) Mon, Jun 1

8788 (125.4k) Sun, May 31

8335 (127.8k) Sat, May 30

8134 (121.7k) Fri, May 29

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

8536 (108.0k) 7.9% Mon, Jun 8

10884 (142.1k) 7.7% Sun, Jun 7

10408 (137.9k) 7.5% Sat, Jun 6

9472 (143.7k) 6.6% Fri, Jun 5

9847 (139.5k) 7.1% Thu, Jun 4

9638 (137.2k) 7.0% Wed, Jun 3

8815 (128.9k) 6.8% Tue, Jun 2

7725 (100.2k) Mon, Jun 1

8788 (125.4k) Sun, May 31

8335 (127.8k) Sat, May 30

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Theatres, casinos and churches to open Friday in Alberta, one week ahead of schedule!!

 

Given how well we're doing in BC, we shouldn't be far behind.

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Related:  Sure can't wait to see what sort of superbug we release on the world with everyone using anti-bacterial hand sanitizers every 30 minutes.

 

(Not even really joking.  I've been low-key worried ever since all of this began that a lot of these disinfectants that folks are rightly using are gonna put a ton of evolutionary pressure on bacteria since they are also often anti-bacterial in nature)

Edited by Porthos
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5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Democratic state senator in VA (on behalf of 2 clients) sues the democratic governor of VA in state and federal court over the lockdown (note, VA has all Dem rule right now).  This could be a turning point for phases to drop quickly everywhere, depending how these cases go, especially the federal one...

 

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/06/lawsuit-northam-covid-19-unconstitutional/

I always figured his delusional lockdown protocol would get pushback. Insley is so lucky thus far. Despite horrible vague ambiguous policy he's somewhat unscathed. 

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13 hours ago, cdsacken said:

I always figured his delusional lockdown protocol would get pushback. Insley is so lucky thus far. Despite horrible vague ambiguous policy he's somewhat unscathed. 

It's just shocking he's getting taken on by a popular state senator in his own party...that's unusual in America right now.

 

And that the senator, being from the Beltway area, was smart enough to co-file at the federal level for civil rights and equal protections claims on an emergency basis.  That kinda stuff could overturn everything in every state at once very quickly if it stays on an expedited track and if the senator prevails.

 

He's got some very good arguments in his claims...he didn't just throw it together in an hour...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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NSW peaked on 28 March with 212 new cases for the day.  It's now 2 weeks since the last case of community transmission.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

NSW peaked on 28 March with 212 new cases for the day.  It's now 2 weeks since the last case of community transmission.

 

 

 

Y'all still have active cases?

 

M0bZRjQ.gif?noredirect

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41 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

Y'all still have active cases?

 

M0bZRjQ.gif?noredirect

 

Not every country has their own Aragorn personally attending to the Houses of Healing

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

I always figured his delusional lockdown protocol would get pushback. Insley is so lucky thus far. Despite horrible vague ambiguous policy he's somewhat unscathed. 

 

 

Getting very hard for governors to enforce lockdowns really anymore. 

 

public mind has shifted over past 2-3 weeks dramatically i think. 

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3 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Getting very hard for governors to enforce lockdowns really anymore. 

 

If it is like Canada indeed for some form of it:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-06-05_CA_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

 

Avoiding public transit (maybe the most important change of habit a society can take) and travel from some destination like Sweden being controlled can still happen. If being close to low-no symptomatic outside of well ventilated large volume place isn't a big deal, a large % of the most important scenario being avoided can continue to occur.

Edited by Barnack
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2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Getting very hard for governors to enforce lockdowns really anymore. 

 

public mind has shifted over past 2-3 weeks dramatically i think. 

And    news that COvid deaths are spiking upwards again......

 

And the public mind is often shortsighted and stupid.

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30 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

You would need excellent contact tracing (linking the vast majority of cases) in a country to prove that clusters are not happening in transit systems. It is a lot easier to identify clusters in homes or buildings than in a subway car where a few people were together once.

And many transit workers have died.

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this is about the 4th or 5th time the WHO has backtracked after making a questionable declaration ? 

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There's now a lot of talk about transmission picking up again in the US, but I'm not familiar with the evidence for or against that claim. It seems like nationally, we are still trending down, but I guess I don't know what the picture looks like regionally. I do think restrictions akin to another shutdown would be a disaster both socially and economically so soon after "reopening" in a lot of places, and am curious as to where everyone thinks we're heading in the shorter term (this summer?).

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26 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

but I'm not familiar with the evidence for or against that claim.

Still primarily figure and I imagine always just an estimate but:

https://rt.live/

 

State that the R0 are estimated to be higher in early june than in early may

(* relevant because R0 went above 1.0)

 

Arizona*

Arkansas

California

Florida*

Nevada

New Mexico

North Carolina*

Oregon*

South Carolina*

Vermont*

Washington (went from quite above 1.0 to even worst)

 

A bit surprising to see Vermont has being the fastest spreader after Washington right now, I would have thought that it was quite rural, but they are quite reopened since mid-may

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-06-05_US_Vermont_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Edited by Barnack
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