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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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If i remember correctly, new studies have basically confirmed, that the two primary reasons for fats spread of the virus are Superspreaders and more importantly, indoor gatherings of people. Close environments in houses, buildings etc. lead to many new infections, while outdoor activities - even demonstrations - are far less dangerous (though not harmless). So in that sence the protests may be a factor of the new rise in infections across the US, but its probably a small one compared to the re-openings.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

If i remember correctly, new studies have basically confirmed, that the two primary reasons for fats spread of the virus are Superspreaders and more importantly, indoor gatherings of people. Close environments in houses, buildings etc. lead to many new infections, while outdoor activities - even demonstrations - are far less dangerous (though not harmless). So in that sence the protests may be a factor of the new rise in infections across the US, but its probably a small one compared to the re-openings.

Counter-point...

 

The protests, like vacationers, provided a spot for thousands to interact - it doesn't take many infections for those folks to go home and become the super spreaders.  WV had 1 person come home from Myrtle Beach (a 20 something, just like the protesters), and cause an entire community break out this week.

 

In the "it only takes 1" category...NC, SC, and GA didn't need many getting infected on the site of the protest, for those protestors to go back to their neighborhood and spread it rapidly...1% would be a significant enough number for them to spiral their area up, b/c that 1% also is likely to have few symptoms, so they'd still go everywhere and see everyone (making tracing them almost impossible)...unlike someone who might get hammered by the virus, like a 75 year old, who'd stay in the day they felt a twinge...

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Does that mean that serology study underevaluted the number of people that had covid by good amount ? @Jason


Probably not by a meaningful amount. The percentage with undetectable antibodies within a few (3) weeks after infection is ~10%, it takes two to three months for ~40% to have undetectable antibodies in the the study cited - which would be a non-factor for most of the serology studies, which were done well within 2 months of case counts exploding in their respective locations.

While we're on the subject - it's worth noting that that a lack of detectable circulating antibodies is not the same as having no immunity, the studies cited above didn't look for the presence of memory cells, but studies that have find them near-universally present.

Memory cells are actually able to provide lifelong immunity against diseases with long incubation times (~2 weeks or longer) because the infection isn't able to cause illness before the memory cells proliferate. For diseases like COVID with a shorter incubation time, re-infection is possible but the illness will be milder and shorter in duration. (This is what happens with the flu, for example.)

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4 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

Probably not. Their are a number of factors here that will likely cause a lower death rate than we saw in NY.

First the avg age is much lower overall so that is going to lead to a lower IFR.

Second, we have alot more experience now so doctors know how to deal with this a little better.

I wasn’t talking about the death rate, just deaths per capita. Even with the factors pushing IFR down it’ll happen if they don’t get their R under control fast enough.   
 

Which, for the record, I do expect to happen. The point of the conditional “of they don’t get their R under control deaths will be worse than NY” is that they will take whatever measures necessary to control R, not that deaths will be worse than NY.

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FWIW, on the topic of the protests the leaders of the protests in SC have cancelled all future in person protests as they are finding people test positive.

 

the protests might not be the biggest factor in spread (there are others already mentioned that will be more) - but they will absolutely contribute and it is silly to say they will not. That's just trying to put a positive spin on things because we like the cause. As i've said from the beginning, I can't condone the Liberty Protests (which were even worse given they were not going to wear masks) and I can't condone the protests from a health standpoint. They will be a negative in that sense.

 

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Texas just put the brakes on reopening.

If the governor of Texas,pretty much a Trump bootlicker, felt compelled to do this things are worse then we thought...

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Posted (edited)

 

Issue is these states could have reopened.

 

They just went from closing everything to have nightclubs opened overnight.

 

Here in Ontario

-first Garden Centres were opened

-Then curbside delivery for stores.

-Then stores that are outside malls opened.

-Restaurants have now opened but they can only do outdoor patios.

 

This process was done over 2 months. 

 

The failure was not continuing the lockdown.

 

The failure was assume Corona came and went like a movie with bad box office legs. 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

Issue is these states could have reopened.

 

They just went from closing everything to have nightclubs opened overnight.

 

Here in Ontario

-first Garden Centres were opened

-Then curbside delivery for stores.

-Then stores that are outside malls opened.

-Restaurants have now opened but they can only do outdoor patios.

 

This process was done over 2 months. 

 

The failure was not continuing the lockdown.

 

The failure was assume Corona came and went like a movie with bad box office legs. 

 

They opened too soon (before the metrics said they should)

They moved through phases too quickly (before the metrics would say it was ok to move on to the next phase)

They never attempted to be honest and open with the public in a way that would allow them to slow things down. 

 

It was ok for most of May as the states that opened that early still had pretty depressed mobility metrics. But once Memorial Day hit everybody just decided that was it. And that is why you see it not in just in the obvious states like FL, GA, TX, AZ, but in less obvious states like CA.

 

it does make me worry alot about the end of July. If you assume this is largely due to behavior starting around the week before Memorial Day. That is a little over 4 weeks to where we are now. 

In a week it is July 4th weekend - do you think people are going to stay in and not congregate (I doubt it)? is everyone going to party with masks on (I doubt it)? So even if they wrest control somehow in the next couple of weeks where it stops getting worse it is likely to simply explode at the end of July (4 weeks after the July 4th weekend).

 

And as one epidemiologist said this morning the next week or two are already baked. The numbers we will see over the next couple of weeks are based on what was happening the last couple of weeks. So if you start to reign it in now it will be 2 weeks from now before you really see any benefit.

 

Edited by RamblinRed
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Posted (edited)

It didn't help Texas that Houston became a hotspot after their protests, and probably spread further from there...

 

https://www.newsweek.com/houston-protesters-begin-fall-ill-coronavirus-after-marching-george-floyd-1511066

 

And funny enough, the ignition point may have been the response to the protest as much as the protest...

 

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/06/04/we-were-gassed-arrested-and-maybe-exposed-to-covid-19

Edited by TwoMisfits

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Posted (edited)

Asking people to not congregate on the Fourth of July is like asking a bear to not sh*t in the woods. It ain’t gonna happen. Now, that the ‘let’s look everything down’ people have been proven wrong repeatedly, people are sick and tired of listening to it and are doing their own thing now. Tried to tell you people that, but you just wouldn’t listen. 

Edited by FilmBuff
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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Asking people to not congregate on the Fourth of July is like asking a bear to not sh*t in the woods. It ain’t gonna happen. Now, that the ‘let’s look everything down’ people have been proven wrong repeatedly, people at sick and tired of listening and are doing their own thing. Tried to tell you people that, but you just wouldn’t listen. 

I think people look at this issue as 100% one way or 100% the other...people who were 100% lockdown have been right...and wrong...and people who were the opposite have also been both:).  I know I was wrong from both sides at a certain time - maybe that makes it easiest for me to adapt now:)...

 

It's that strident stubborness of position of each side that prevents smart solutions from being sought that satisfy and secure the most people.  In May, I shared a wonderful back and forth with my city councilman sharing your thoughts, that if people had nowhere to go for Memorial Day, they'd go places you wouldn't want them to go...and we had nice emails agreeing that opening up the outside should be the goal b/c the outside was safest for viruses, and getting the outside all open for summer (while keeping the inside much more restricted), so people had options and places to go that would be safer than what they'd choose themselves was a goal to pursue.  And I shared emails with the whole council that after Memorial Day, the focus had to change from how to not do something to how maybe we could be creative to allow some things to happen.  And that's why my county, and not nearby other ones, have playgrounds open...and dog parks open...and some outdoor community pools open (at reduced capacity and reduced swim hours/person, so you never stay "too long")...and now after canceling all summer camps in April, will be working towards some onsite short-length safe outdoor camps for disadvantaged kids in August...and is working towards distanced sports classes and class-limited distanced fishing for kids...yes, I'm taking my kids to the fishing class where we'll have masks, social distance, and no real bathrooms (hurray for Port-O's for emergencies)...

 

And it's not just kids...we have drive through paid audio tours now for our farm park...and limited safely-distanced mask-required senior citizen paid outdoor art classes...and we literally changed our county ordinances to allow gyms/fitness businesses and restaurants to use their parking lots as seating and workout/fitness class areas...

 

At this point, no matter what side you are on, you have to provide a way forward for everyone, and that way should be one that keeps people as healthy and happy as possible...if they are, they are more likely to adapt and move with you as you may need to slow progression or even stop it (which is the big risk this fall/winter)...

 

I mean, really, the push for a vaccine has always been a push for a "solution" - people wants answers - it's part of being human.  Right now, that answer isn't available, so we have to find ones that are available, even if they aren't a full solution...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FilmBuff said:

Asking people to not congregate on the Fourth of July is like asking a bear to not sh*t in the woods. It ain’t gonna happen. Now, that the ‘let’s look everything down’ people have been proven wrong repeatedly, people are sick and tired of listening to it and are doing their own thing now. Tried to tell you people that, but you just wouldn’t listen. 

This is so incredibly ignorant and selfish I don't know where to begin.

If what you say is true then "People" are morons.

 

Just like their dear leader Trump.

 

I saw this post on a newsite from someone claiming to be a Trump supporter. I would like to beleive it is satire, but I have a sick feeling it is not.

 

Quote

Although the rogue CDC tried to convince our president that this virus really existed, President Donald J. Trump saw through the leftists and has opened the country up for business! The hoax is over and it failed! It failed to achieve the leftist goals of plunging our republic into a depression and making our president look ineffective! Only this president would have stood up to the CDC and the Democrat conspirators and not been taken in by their treasonous lies!

 

The USA is totally fucked.

And Trump is not the only one responsible.

Edited by dudalb

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Reports are that Trump is convinced that the numbers are fake and being  blown out of proportion by the "Fake Media".

God help the USA.

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The frontrunner for Worst Covid Crisis Leader preparing an appeal based on immunity, so he doesn't have to wear a mask?

Quote

 

 

 

 

 

:thinking:

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What's happening in Arizona

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

The frontrunner for Worst Covid Crisis Leader preparing an appeal based on immunity, so he doesn't have to wear a mask?

:thinking:

 Karma is a bitch....

Edited by dudalb

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10 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

Issue is these states could have reopened.

 

They just went from closing everything to have nightclubs opened overnight.

 

Here in Ontario

-first Garden Centres were opened

-Then curbside delivery for stores.

-Then stores that are outside malls opened.

-Restaurants have now opened but they can only do outdoor patios.

 

This process was done over 2 months. 

 

The failure was not continuing the lockdown.

 

The failure was assume Corona came and went like a movie with bad box office legs. 

 

It’s weird reading things like this. None of these places ever closed here with the exception that restaurants could only do takeaway. 

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