Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

Recommended Posts

15 hours ago, a2k said:

India last 5 days positive rate,

3rd Jul 9.9%

2nd Jul 9.1%

1st Jul 8.5%

30th Jun 8.9%

29th Jun 8.7%

 

We are hitting new highs every day now and unlike USA we never had a downward trend. It has been increasing since day 1

15 hours ago, cdsacken said:

It's more contagious and weaker

 

As the virus mutates to spread caster it weakens each time. This and our ability to better effectively treat it indicates why death rates plummeted despite test case count spiking.

 

We will see slight increases j think in death count, perhaps back up 50% after the 20 day lag period ends. 

Can you link me to a source which says the new strain is weaker? So far I have only read that it is more infectious but no more or less severe than the original strain. 

 

As for your second statement, that is simply not true. There is no reason why a virus should weaken to spread faster (unless the virus had a very high fatality rate in the beginning which Coronavirus does not). Unless you have a background in virology or epidemiology you should be making such statements, or at the very least provide some reputable sources. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

We are hitting new highs every day now and unlike USA we never had a downward trend. It has been increasing since day 1

Can you link me to a source which says the new strain is weaker? So far I have only read that it is more infectious but no more or less severe than the original strain. 

 

As for your second statement, that is simply not true. There is no reason why a virus should weaken to spread faster (unless the virus had a very high fatality rate in the beginning which Coronavirus does not). Unless you have a background in virology or epidemiology you should be making such statements, or at the very least provide some reputable sources. 

If the virus doesn't weaken when it spreads it burns out due to killing all of the hosts.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid-19-has-become-less-prevalent-and-less-severe.html

 

If not we should see 300% increases in death rates soon in many states. Color me pessimistic of that. Lord knows I hope that's wrong.

Edited by cdsacken
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, George Parr said:

Does it though?

These things aren't necessarily linked. There's also stuff that spreads fast and is extremely deadly, though in most cases they tend to be too deadly even for their high speed of spreading. Mutations that make a virus spread more easily don't need to have an impact on how dangerous it is.

Mutations can make it stronger or weaker. If it was stronger the death count would be exponential and we would be at looking at a million deaths.

 

Again maybe I'm wrong and the daily death rate goes from 700 to 7000 but I don't see it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The research to this point doesn't conclusively show that the current G strain is weaker, just that it is more infectious. It could turn out to be weaker, but the early research does not really support that.

 

Even if the current strain is just as dangerous as the previous D strain, that doesn't mean the death rate will be the same.

Health care professionals now have 3-4 months of fighting with this and have better ideas of how to combat it, which should lower the death rate.

If the population infected overall is younger than it is likely to have a lower death rate.

If we keep health care systems from being overwhelmed that will lower the death rate.

 

We have natural things happening which will decrease the mortality rate, hopefully they more than offset the increased transmission. Most of the models project that. They expect death rates to climb slowly in the US, but not spike like we saw in the Spring.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

If the virus doesn't weaken when it spreads it burns out due to killing all of the hosts.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid-19-has-become-less-prevalent-and-less-severe.html

 

If not we should see 300% increases in death rates soon in many states. Color me pessimistic of that. Lord knows I hope that's wrong.

 

Sorry thats just not true. Its true for viruses like Ebola where the mortality rate is so high and the incubation period so short that the spread is burning out fast since the hosts die so fast. But the Coronavirus has a very low mortality rate plus a very long incubation period so it would never face the danger to run out of hosts thus theres no reason to anticipate a weakening of any sort.

 

One of the main reasons as i understand it why the death rate in the US has been declining lately is

 

1) far more younger people are infected

2) hospitals and medical staffs now have experience in fighting this disease and also have more effective treatment

3) Theres a long lagging period between more cases and more deaths that lasts for 2 to 3 weeks. So in that theory we shoud see a steady increase in deaths in the coming days and weeks.

 

However one more thing that should be noted is that it also takes a lot of time for the death certificats to arrive so someone could die of Covid-19, but it would still take a week or so till its reported.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

If the virus doesn't weaken when it spreads it burns out due to killing all of the hosts.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/06/upmc-doctor-says-covid-19-has-become-less-prevalent-and-less-severe.html

 

If not we should see 300% increases in death rates soon in many states. Color me pessimistic of that. Lord knows I hope that's wrong.

1) None of what you said in the first sentence applies to Coronavirus though. In fact that statement would not apply to majority of viruses out there seeing most of them do not have very high fatality rates. Again it's better to not make statements on things unless you have some background in the field like Virology. 

 

2) The link you posted corroborates none of the things you have posted. Not to mention the fact that it is a month old and has nothing to do with the new strain of the virus. Plus the doctor quoted is speaking anecdotally, not on the basis of research. The doctors statement that the virus is less prevalent came at a time when cases were dropping. It does not reflect today's reality. The doctor also says that he does not know why the prevalence and severity has dropped in the article itself. I wonder what makes you think you have more ground to make definitive statements than the doctor. 

 

3) There could be myriads of reason why the death rate has not ticked up with the positive rate. Anything could be possible, but all I am saying is don't make statements you are not qualified to make, unless you have sources to a research study

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

1) None of what you said in the first sentence applies to Coronavirus though. In fact that statement would not apply to majority of viruses out there seeing most of them do not have very high fatality rates. Again it's better to not make statements on things unless you have some background in the field like Virology. 

 

2) The link you posted corroborates none of the things you have posted. Not to mention the fact that it is a month old and has nothing to do with the new strain of the virus. Plus the doctor quoted is speaking anecdotally, not on the basis of research. The doctors statement that the virus is less prevalent came at a time when cases were dropping. It does not reflect today's reality. The doctor also says that he does not know why the prevalence and severity has dropped in the article itself. I wonder what makes you think you have more ground to make definitive statements than the doctor. 

 

3) There could be myriads of reason why the death rate has not ticked up with the positive rate. Anything could be possible, but all I am saying is don't make statements you are not qualified to make, unless you have sources to a research study

I disagree. Have a nice day.

  • Not Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Sorry thats just not true. Its true for viruses like Ebola where the mortality rate is so high and the incubation period so short that the spread is burning out fast since the hosts die so fast. But the Coronavirus has a very low mortality rate plus a very long incubation period so it would never face the danger to run out of hosts thus theres no reason to anticipate a weakening of any sort.

 

One of the main reasons as i understand it why the death rate in the US has been declining lately is

 

1) far more younger people are infected

2) hospitals and medical staffs now have experience in fighting this disease and also have more effective treatment

3) Theres a long lagging period between more cases and more deaths that lasts for 2 to 3 weeks. So in that theory we shoud see a steady increase in deaths in the coming days and weeks.

 

However one more thing that should be noted is that it also takes a lot of time for the death certificats to arrive so someone could die of Covid-19, but it would still take a week or so till its reported.

Great example of a situation where it mutated stronger and burned it self out. Thank god we didn't have that. We would be in total lockdown with tons of deaths every fay.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I disagree. Have a nice day.

I don't care whether you agree or not, it says right in the first pinned post that misinformation is not allowed and to base your statements in fact. Next time you decide to post something that you have no idea about, post it with relevant source or don't post at all. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

I don't care whether you agree or not, it says right in the first pinned post that misinformation is not allowed and to base your statements in fact. Next time you decide to post something that you have no idea about, post it with relevant source or don't post at all. 

I disagree. The data proves otherwise. If you want to be more pessimistic that's your right. I interpret it differently.

 

The death rate has plummeted. I will be happy to admit I'm wrong if it skyrockets soon. Small increases are a lock due to large increases in positive counts.

Edited by cdsacken
  • Not Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I disagree. The data proves otherwise. If you want to fearmonger feel free.

 

The death rate has plummeted. I will be happy to admit I'm wrong if it skyrockets soon. Small increases are a lock due to large increases in positive counts.

Don't try to change the topic. The point is not that the death rate in USA is going down or has leveled off (there could be a variety of reasons why this could be, but we have no clear answer why at this point, which is why you wont see scientists making definitive statements like you do). The point is that you, in your original post, made multiple statements saying the virus has become weaker without any relevant sources and other statements which you are not qualified to make, given you have no background in the field. 

 

I have no interest in extending this conversation unnecessarily. As I said earlier, if you are going to make claims, either provide proper sources or don't post it because you will get warnings for posting misinformation. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

The point is not that the death rate in USA is going down or has leveled off (there could be a variety of reasons why this could be

How much do we know about the death rate in the USA ?

 

If it is the known death / known case rate, most of the difference is probably simply larger testing that capture a smaller proportion of heavier case, there is no need for a significant actual change to have a big perceived one.

 

Say there has been 13 million case in the usa and most of the 10 millions missing in the stats got it before june, with a death rate of about 1.4% all along, it will feel like it would have went down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

How much do we know about the death rate in the USA ?

 

If it is the known death / known case rate, most of the difference is probably simply larger testing that capture a smaller proportion of heavier case, there is no need for a significant actual change to have a big perceived one.

 

Say there has been 13 million case in the usa and most of the 10 millions missing in the stats got it before june, with a death rate of about 1.4% all along, it will feel like it would have went down.

Well that's kinda the point I was making to him, to not make definitive statements without proper facts. As I said in my post, there could be a variety of reason why the death rate has not increased proportionally with rising number of cases (one of which is what you posted), but we do not know the actual reasons, not for sure at least. 

 

Besides the original point was not even about the death rate, it was his incorrect statements on the virus which is what I was correcting before he tried to unsuccessfully change the topic since he couldn't defend it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Threatening people because they interpret data differently is pathetic in my opinion. But you're a mod, do what you need to. 

 

Everyone hopes the numbers continue to improve, and of course there is concern we will see steady rises in the death rate soon. 

 

I'm not going to defend anything because you threaten to ban people who disagree with you. So you win.

Edited by cdsacken
  • Not Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

One of the main reasons as i understand it why the death rate in the US has been declining lately is

 

1) far more younger people are infected

2) hospitals and medical staffs now have experience in fighting this disease and also have more effective treatment

3) Theres a long lagging period between more cases and more deaths that lasts for 2 to 3 weeks. So in that theory we shoud see a steady increase in deaths in the coming days and weeks.

 

However one more thing that should be noted is that it also takes a lot of time for the death certificats to arrive so someone could die of Covid-19, but it would still take a week or so till its reported.

 

All that is true.  You left out...

 

4) The states use official numbers to justify reopening so they purposely suppress the bad numbers any way they can.  I wouldn't trust any numbers out of FL.  They fired their data scientist for showing too much data on the website and have been caught suppressing data since the beginning.

 

However the idea that cases are rising when the death rate is falling is a great example of Simpson's paradox.  While overall  the death rate is falling nationwide the death rate is rising in the states that are having the huge outbreaks.

 

And unfortunately the national death rate is likely to start climbing again.

 

Death rates lag 3-6 weeks.  Look at the R0 values from 2 months ago to today:  https://rt.live/

 

The change from 2 months ago to today is depressing.

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Florida and Texas absolutely hid death totals. Frickin pathetic too. So obvious.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Threatening people because they interpret data differently is pathetic in my opinion. But you're a mod, do what you need to. 

 

Everyone hopes the numbers continue to improve, and of course there is concern we will see steady rises in the death rate soon. 

Don't cry that I and others have called you out because you were making idiotic statements which you could not prove or defend. And don't try and weasel your way out of what you said. Your original statements and my issue with them have nothing to do with death rate and the data. And don't cry foul when I am reminding you of official rules set by other mods (it literally is the first pinned post and the third pinned post talks about sources, may be you should read that). Your tantrum is pathetic. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Don't cry that I and others have called you out because you were making idiotic statements which you could not prove or defend. And don't try and weasel your way out of what you said. Your original statements and my issue with them have nothing to do with death rate and the data. And don't cry foul when I am reminding you of official rules set by other mods. Your tantrum is pathetic. 

You really need to calm down. Again I'm not going to further the debate after you threatened me. Have a nice day 

  • Not Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Threatening people because they interpret data differently is pathetic in my opinion. But you're a mod, do what you need to. 

Having opinions is fine.  However...

 

Quote

Well that's kinda the point I was making to him, to not make definitive statements without proper facts.

 

A single Dr claiming the virus is less prevalent (false based on recent trends) and less severe (zero evidence for this) is not facts.

 

Anecdotal observations is not facts even when it comes from experts.

 

I sense a bit of 'wishcasting' going on as people just want this to be over.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think it's over. But the suggestion the virus is getting stronger with the death rate plummeting is unlikely.

 

Far from over. It won't be over in 2020. Hell who knows if it's done next year. Incremental improvement. I fully expect increases in the death rate within 7-14 days. I just pray it's minimal.

 

Be safe everyone and hopefully month by month it will get better. Glad I'm in a state with a very conservative approach

Edited by cdsacken
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.