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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Even in countries where people think they "beat" the virus at the moment, it is going to be very difficult to reopen all schools and universities, in addition to indoor restaurants and even bars. Test&trace and masks only go so far, how "normal" can you get? The virus hasn't changed. In Israel there is a real second wave and the schools were reportedly a major factor.

 

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3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

Virus Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Amazon Forest

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21 hours ago, Barnack said:

I imagine that it mean that about 2.4 million to 3 million something people in Spain with is 42m people got covid (has not everyone infected has them after a while it is hard to know by how much that 5.2% undercount them but probably not by too much), the spanish government was aware of 297.6K case a bit above to just under 10% of them, death rate without much surprise a bit above to a bit below 1% if there 28K deaths figure is close to accurate.

 

If the USA was has good has Spain at testing that would mean about 24-30 million American got covids (USA tested 114K by millions, spain 116K by millions), that give an idea by how off any death rate talk that use the 3 million case has a denominator could be off by, specially a talk in is change over time has we can assume how disproportionately the missed case can be over time.

 

If you assume US cases are underestimated by a power of 10 and then divide that into the current number of deaths you get a fatality rate of 0.5%. (130,000/26,000,000). So I think the estimates are pretty good that are being presented in the US. 0.5% puts you right in the range of where early studies suggested the mortality rate might be. 

 

Note that doesn't account for any under counting of the deaths which 130,000 almost certainly is. But it does make me feel that somewhere around a true 0.5% mortality rate seems about right for the US right now.

Edited by RamblinRed

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6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

If you assume US cases are underestimated by a power of 10 and then divide that into the current number of deaths you get a fatality rate of 0.5%. (130,000/26,000,000). So I think the estimates are pretty good that are being presented in the US. 0.5% puts you right in the range of where early studies suggested the mortality rate might be. 

 

Note that doesn't account for any under counting of the deaths which 130,000 almost certainly is. But it does make me feel that somewhere around a true 0.5% mortality rate seems about right for the US right now.

I was calculating with 0,5% back in March but I think, with better treatments und understanding, by now it is probably more in the 0,2-0,3% range. As long as you DO get good treatment, that is.

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2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Virus Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Amazon Forest

Karma can be a bitch.

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On 7/6/2020 at 8:37 PM, Barnack said:

I imagine that it mean that about 2.4 million to 3 million something people in Spain with is 42m people got covid (has not everyone infected has them after a while it is hard to know by how much that 5.2% undercount them but probably not by too much), the spanish government was aware of 297.6K case a bit above to just under 10% of them, death rate without much surprise a bit above to a bit below 1% if there 28K deaths figure is close to accurate.

Probably not (~50k excess mortality), like in many countries covid deaths outside hospitals (nursing homes...) are undercounted.

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7 hours ago, AndyK said:

I guess Oz is in midwinter now which is the worse time for spreading.

It’s not because of winter. 

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5 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

Is it wrong of me that I hope he dies, especially after all the rain forest stuff.

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Hi everyone, please take the time to sign this petition to revoke the new ICE rule which would force international students in the US to leave if their university goes all online for the Fall (which is likely to happen here).

 

https://www.change.org/p/united-states-immigration-and-customs-enforcement-allow-f-1-and-m-1-students-with-valid-visas-to-stay-in-the-united-states

 

This rule is incredibly messed up, if you live in the US, please contact your house rep and senators telling them this rule is unacceptable.

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20 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Is it wrong of me that I hope he dies, especially after all the rain forest stuff.

yep, I' d consider that "wrong". I just hope for some days in ICU ... and some months of slow recovery :blush:

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2 hours ago, CloneWars said:

Is it wrong of me that I hope he dies, especially after all the rain forest stuff.

Considering the rain forest stuff I think wishing for his death is fair. I won't do it but I get the feeling

Edited by cdsacken

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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

yep, I' d consider that "wrong". I just hope for some days in ICU ... and some months of slow recovery :blush:

Fine how about a coma rendering his presidency null and void. Magically wakes up healthy 10 years from now

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Calling it now: the Worst Covid Crisis Leader.

 

The King.

 

Spoiler

 

 

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This is an interesting article. It says Israel is tracing its current outbreak primarily to Weddings that started taking place after restrictions were eased.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middlle_east/why-israel-is-seeing-a-coronavirus-spike-after-initially-crushing-the-outbreak/2020/07/07/dd141158-bfbc-11ea-8908-68a2b9eae9e0_story.html

 

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10 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

If you assume US cases are underestimated by a power of 10 and then divide that into the current number of deaths you get a fatality rate of 0.5%. (130,000/26,000,000). So I think the estimates are pretty good that are being presented in the US. 0.5% puts you right in the range of where early studies suggested the mortality rate might be. 

 

Note that doesn't account for any under counting of the deaths which 130,000 almost certainly is. But it does make me feel that somewhere around a true 0.5% mortality rate seems about right for the US right now.

Linked is something relatively new to consider with regard to the antibody/serology survey results.  They may not be capturing the full extent of the spread due to incorrect calibration and poor quality (second link) and the possibility that another part of the human immune response may be at work (first link).

 

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-public-immunity-significantly-higher-than-tests-suggest/

 

https://youtu.be/8pHfsmX467s

 

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51 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

But let's reopen the schools next month anyway!

 

DeShitis is an embarrassment to this state. 

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