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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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On 6/13/2020 at 11:24 AM, Arendelle Legion said:

This reminds me of when people thought there wouldn’t be a first wave of shutdowns, lol. If you don’t take appropriate mitigation measures to force the R_0 into a manageable R_t, eventually you end up as a Lombardy/NYC with ambulance sirens 24/7 and hospitals packed with corpses. And then you lockdown.    
 

The only way to avoid locking down is by effectively deploying gentler mitigation measures in time instead, but if the public won’t cooperate enough...

And exactly one month later, California locks back down.    
 

First state, but certainly not the last.

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2 hours ago, cax16 said:

 

 

57 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I would trust a russian vaccine as much as i trust the official russian Covid numbers - not.

 

Its simply impossible to have a vaccine in August. Or atleast a vaccine that is safe and works.

The news report is misleading. What they have completed is the phase 1 of clinical trials. Phase 2 and 3 have not even begun yet. 
 

Many vaccine candidates around the world have already completed phase 1 trials successfully and are undergoing phase 2 trials. So this candidate is actually a bit behind. 

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4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

The news report is misleading. What they have completed is the phase 1 of clinical trials. Phase 2 and 3 have not even begun yet. 
 

Many vaccine candidates around the world have already completed phase 1 trials successfully and are undergoing phase 2 trials. So this candidate is actually a bit behind. 

Oxford is on phase 3 and 100 million doses are already in production.

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it's a good thing there's multiple vaccines in development, with different approaches - it's not an easy feat, with a good antibody level obviously being rather hard to maintain. But those things take time; you have to observe 10.000s of test subjects through some months, not only for immune response but also side effects - maybe we'll have a proven candidate by the end of the year (and even then, complications might arise). And then logistics.

 

As hard as it seems, but we'll have to live with this virus for at least this year and probably all through 2021, too.

 

That means, we have to find a way to keep infections down to manageable numbers. And by now, we know this means:

  • no indoor crowds
  • no closely packed outdoor crowds
  • no recirculation air conditioning
  • keeping a distance when possible, and
  • wearing a mask when not
  • plus, washing your hands diligently

Most of these measures are easy to follow on an individual base, but of course, there's a lot of businesses which will suffer heavily - events, night gastronomy, ...

Every phase of re-opening has to be evaluated and, if neccessary, re-locked again. As I said, it's not the goal to save every life - but we have to keep the infection numbers so low that contact tracing and containing are doable, and health systems not overburdened.

 

 

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

Oxford is on phase 3 and 100 million doses are already in production.


Do you have a link for that, especially the 100 million doses? Everything I’ve seen says they’re aiming for the results of Phase III in September and hope to have a vaccine shortly after that. 

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

Oxford is on phase 3 and 100 million doses are already in production.

Yes, along with some other candidates out there. Although I highly doubt we will see any successful vaccines before 3-6 months. Even when a vaccine is found it will still take many many months for it to actually get administered to enough people to achieve effectual herd immunity. 

 

Btw I found no source on that 100m number. All I could find was that the manufacturer has an agreement with UK to produce and deliver 100m doses. 

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1 hour ago, Plain Old Tele said:


Do you have a link for that, especially the 100 million doses? Everything I’ve seen says they’re aiming for the results of Phase III in September and hope to have a vaccine shortly after that. 

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-manufacturing-begins-on-millions-of-doses-of-the-oxford-vaccine-candidate/

 

 

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The Swine Flu Pandemic of 2009/2010 wasnt tracked that well in reagards of cases and deaths back then. However, theres an official range of estimated deaths worlwide of the swine Flu: 151.000 - 575.000. Lab-confirmed deaths only are in the 18k region.

 

Coronavirus has just bascially eclipsed that upper end 575.000 number of deaths about now in just offical numbers.

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On 7/12/2020 at 10:43 AM, RamblinRed said:

This is a purely senseless waste of life. From the Chief Medical Officer of Methodist Heathcare in San Antonio.

Giving a video update on the conditions in San Antonio she relates this story. 30 yr old man attends a COVID party and contracts the disease. Shortly before dying he tells his nurse "I think I made a mistake, I thought it was a hoax."

https://www.nbc12.com/2020/07/12/i-think-i-made-mistake-young-man-texas-dies-after-attending-covid-party/

 

Trump has blood on his hands.

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8 hours ago, cdsacken said:

It's insane how fast they are pushing the vaccine. Crazy how quickly technology has improved.

Prolbem is are they pushing it too fast......

FRo the record, most experts are sitll predicting Next year for a effective vaccine.

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5 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:


Ah, okay, so they will start delivery in Sept on a 100m order. 

Yes, this particular vaccine uses standard techniques and was already in development when the pandemic struck. They just piggybacked the Covid spike sequence onto it.

 

That's how they managed to have it available so quick.

 

As a consequence of its simplicity, it's only expected to give 12 months protection. But it will hopefully do the job until the more complex vaccine trials can be completed.

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I had an issue with the Victoria/NSW border closure today. Somebody bought one of our products from a large national chain in Mildura, Victoria on a shopping trip from Broken Hill, NSW.  A 600km round trip. However, after getting home they discovered something wrong with it. The chain no longer has a store where they live so it’s basically legally impossible for them to return it to the store at the moment. 
 

It’s only a cheap item so we’re posting a replacement. 

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On 7/13/2020 at 9:06 AM, Brainbug said:

One other thing that is very concerning to me: The Atlantic hurricane season will be underway from now one, most storms form in August and September. I doubt that the pandemic is even cloce to under control by then in states like Florida, Georgia or Louisiana, so the virus coupled with a big-enough hurricane could lead to total disaster. Social distancing amid a possible hurricane imo seems harder than ever.

I have some good news for you on this front:

 

For the past several months, and for at least the next couple, the Bermuda high has been much more receded than usual, as part of the weak La Nina oceanic temperature trend we are in (eastern Pacific ocean temperatures often dictate Atlantic weather patterns).

 

The weakened Bermuda high is what has resulted in essentially a stalled out through of low pressure off the east coast, which has resulted in a string of quick spinning but weak tropical systems in the Gulf and along the east coast. This pattern was very prevalent from 2011-2015. Certainly the amount of storms so far this year has far outpaced the average, but as long as the Bermuda high is weak, Cape Verde Hurricanes (Hurricanes forming from waves off the coast of Africa that move across the Atlantic, into the Caribbean, and generally into either Central or North America) will be guided east of the east coast. At the same time, the stalled-out low pressure should prevent "homegrown" systems from strengthening out of control. In fact, several of the systems so far have been borderline Subtropical instead of fully tropical (the difference being cold-core vs warm-core. Cold-core Subtropical systems can't easily tap into ocean heat).

 

Either way, these trends can certainly change by the time we get to September/October, but at the moment Florida and the east coast are being protected. For now.

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Op-Ed by a doctor on wasting time talking about herd immunity. He talks about both antibodies and t-cells. He argues that it is up to us to stop the disease. He says vaccines and therapuetics will eventually help but until then we have to take the steps to stop the virus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/opinions/herd-immunity-covid-19-uncomfortable-reality-haseltine/index.html

 

But we waste critical time with this pointless discussion, because the facts are already quite clear: herd immunity will likely never be achieved for Covid-19 or any other coronavirus. We know this thanks to new research on the development and decline of Covid antibodies and from a wealth of epidemiological evidence on coronaviruses as a whole.

 

 

Not only do antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 fade, and perhaps fade quickly, studies have also shown that only 15% of those who test positive for antibodies make the neutralizing antibodies necessary to develop immunity in the first place. And not all of those who make neutralizing antibodies make them at high levels. Some of those infected make no antibodies at all.
 
The body's T cell response may also be an important factor for immunity, but it won't be the answer. T cells help our immune system by killing off infected cells and activating other immune cells to fight off the infection. We know people make robust and sometimes long-lasting T cell responses to cold causing coronaviruses.
 
However important the T cell response may be in clearing infection, it is clear that it does not prevent reinfection, which occurs regularly with the more common coronaviruses.
 
 
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Pfizer seems to be beating Moderna right now and is planning to get 100 mil MRNA vaccines out by the end of the year: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200713005168/en/. This should at least be enough to cover a large number of high risk people and essential workers.

 

It would be really good if at least some of the dozen vaccines being tested right now get approved and deployed since that'd make it easier to get more people vaccinated this year.

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42 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Op-Ed by a doctor on wasting time talking about herd immunity. He talks about both antibodies and t-cells. He argues that it is up to us to stop the disease. He says vaccines and therapuetics will eventually help but until then we have to take the steps to stop the virus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/opinions/herd-immunity-covid-19-uncomfortable-reality-haseltine/index.html

 
 

Nate Silver tweeted out some similar information just yesterday.

 

COVID may be far more life altering than many initially believed.

 

Yesterday, the wife and I had to cut ties with child #2's karate studio. She'd been a student there since age 4, and at 11 she achieved il-dan black belt. She was supposed to test for i-dan this summer. The problem is, the proprietor is about to go bankrupt so he decided to open up his dojo again, violating MI's executive order (gyms in much of the state are still shuttered). He'd been holding lessons via zoom but attendance was way down, so his solution to his financial trouble is to put everyone at risk (I'll add that he has a seniors class and a couple of his associate instructors are north of 70). He also sent out a text that he will not be policing mask compliance. That's not optional, he faces big fines for not enforcing the rule. So, we told him we're done. 8 years of paying $150 month (plus testing fees) is gone.

 

We found a new place for her to go that is holding zoom lessons as well as once or twice a week in a park (weather permitting), socially distanced. The big thing for me was finding someone who was adaptable. The couple that runs this studio has realized that things aren't going back to how they were any time soon, so they developed a new approach that works for them, for their students, and keeps everyone safe. We take our daughter this evening for an assessment so she can start at an appropriate belt, since the styles are not the same.

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Fall is going to be great...

Quote

 

The source of the infection explosion can be seen clearly in the numbers from June. As Kliner told the Knesset, 1,400 Israelis were diagnosed with the disease last month. Of those, 185 caught it at events such as weddings, 128 in hospitals, 113 in workplaces, 108 in restaurants, bars, or nightclubs, and 116 in synagogues, according to Kliner, while 657—which is to say 47 percent of the total—were infected by the coronavirus in schools.

 

Edited by MrGlass2
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Yeah, I keep saying that as well. Schools are the number one transmission vector for flu and other winter illnesses. There is absolutely no safe way for schools to be open in the fall given the current situation. Thinking otherwise is just not realistic.

 

My younger three will be staying at home, regardless of what the school district decides. The oldest one has mostly online college courses for the fall, and her one in-person class may be turned into an online course as well.

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