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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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4 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

I get mixed answers every time I look it up, but what's the confirmed global death total from the virus?

575k confirmed. Actual death count is probably north of 750k now.

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18 minutes ago, doublejack said:

575k confirmed. Actual death count is probably north of 750k now.

 

I (personally!) believe its already near 1 Million. Latin America, Africa and the Middle East are severly underreporting.

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Andy Stanley, who has a group of churches in metro Atlanta that number over 30,000 members, has said there will be no in-person services until 2021. That the church can't guarantee the safety of the people so nothing in-person.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/andy-stanley-cannot-guarantee-your-safety/dJu0RoZcEd1ZuSpDmTIbKM/

 

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31 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I (personally!) believe its already near 1 Million. Latin America, Africa and the Middle East are severly underreporting.

The question is (for quite some European countries as well): Do you consider a death by car accident (or any other causes which has no relation to the pandemic like cancer) a COVID death if the deceased had the virus? These differences in methodology prevent us to come up with a specific number when we are talking about global death count.

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4 minutes ago, misafeco said:

The question is (for quite some European countries as well): Do you consider a death by car accident (or any other causes which has no relation to the pandemic like cancer) a COVID death if the deceased had the virus? These differences in methodology prevent us to come up with a specific number when we are talking about global death count.

 

You probably mean the ongoing discussion if someone dies from or with the virus. I think theres valid arguments to make in some cases that the virus may not be the primary death reason but a secondary - for example if someone has chronic lung damage beforehand, a covid infection may just be the last stepping stone to death. But thats also the silver lining for me personally: If the virus woudnt exist, that person would have maybe lived a few years longer. This life-shortening was caused by the virus and as such imo it should be counted as a COVID death.

 

Car accidents imo are an extreme example. If someone whos tested positive for covid would die in a car crash i dont think anyone would argue against the case that the car crash was the reason for death.

 

But generally with epidemics and pandemics its important to consider that we well never have an "accurate" death toll. Theres just no way that we could track exact numbers worldwide, too many countries are underreporting or faking numbers for this to happen. But we can have rough estimates like we have with pandemics in the past. I mean just as an example, the Spanish Flu death count varies between 25 and 100 Million People. Thats a 75 million deaths difference!

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13 minutes ago, misafeco said:

Do you consider a death by car accident (or any other causes which has no relation to the pandemic like cancer) a COVID death if the deceased had the virus?

Is there any country where this actually happens? Most countries have trouble enough counting covid deaths outside hospitals (for patients tested for covid before dying) as it is.

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And people act like a week after a viccaine is found, we can  go back to normal. Won't happen.  I think we will be in this situation through the end of 2020 no matter what.

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3 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Is there any country where this actually happens? Most countries have trouble enough counting covid deaths outside hospitals (for patients tested for covid before dying) as it is.

Hmmm, stacking the car into a tree due to a Covid sneezing fit.....

 

That's a tough call.

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3 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Is there any country where this actually happens? Most countries have trouble enough counting covid deaths outside hospitals (for patients tested for covid before dying) as it is.

as far as I've seen, Belgium is probably the one country in the world where Covid19 deaths are over-counted. There are some that seem to count halfway correctly (my own Austria among them), and most countries seem to under-count the actual number of deaths.

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3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

You probably mean the ongoing discussion if someone dies from or with the virus. I think theres valid arguments to make in some cases that the virus may not be the primary death reason but a secondary - for example if someone has chronic lung damage beforehand, a covid infection may just be the last stepping stone to death. But thats also the silver lining for me personally: If the virus woudnt exist, that person would have maybe lived a few years longer. This life-shortening was caused by the virus and as such imo it should be counted as a COVID death.

 

Car accidents imo are an extreme example. If someone whos tested positive for covid would die in a car crash i dont think anyone would argue against the case that the car crash was the reason for death.

 

But generally with epidemics and pandemics its important to consider that we well never have an "accurate" death toll. Theres just no way that we could track exact numbers worldwide, too many countries are underreporting or faking numbers for this to happen. But we can have rough estimates like we have with pandemics in the past. I mean just as an example, the Spanish Flu death count varies between 25 and 100 Million People. Thats a 75 million deaths difference!

This is why death tolls from diseases are usually counted on the backend using data modeling, not just on death certificates.

Also remember that it is not some standard that a person dies from 1 thing. Most death certificates allow you to have multiple causes of death.

 

I also saw a study a month or so ago that the avg loss of life for a COVID patient is 11 years based on modeling. So its not like the modeling is saying that people are only losing a 6 months or a year.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20050559v2

 

Edited by RamblinRed
found the study on lost years of life
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3 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Is there any country where this actually happens? Most countries have trouble enough counting covid deaths outside hospitals (for patients tested for covid before dying) as it is.

Okay, car accident was an extreme example. But most people who die diagnosed with the virus has already some pre-existing conditions. Here the government website has the gender, age and medical condition of all COVID victims and the statistics show that barely anyone had a disease related to the lungs, high blood pressure and heart related issues being the most common. How many of these people would have died even without corona in the foreseeable future? I think more than half of them would be a decent guess. The average age is well above 70.

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16 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I also saw a study a month or so ago that the avg loss of life for a COVID patient is 11 years based on modeling. So its not like the modeling is saying that people are only losing a 6 months or a year.

In the document: In this preliminary study we did not calculate DALYs or adjust YLLs for quality of life or comorbidity.8,14

 

That seem like it could be significant enough to skew result considering how much co-morbidity we see in covid deaths (than again maybe not that much more than the average american in that age group).

 

Diabetes for example did seem to be present in nearly 40% of new york city covid deaths (has of april 6), if you use the expected life expectancy for them instead of the expected life expectancy for diabetic patient you would probably overestimate the avg loss of life quite a bit, hypertension is also over represented among people dying of covid.

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5 minutes ago, cax16 said:

 

Seems like Moderna is making progress with their MRNA vaccine too. Fauci also seems to be saying what I said earlier but how having multiple vaccine candidates approved would be incredibly helpful.

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So, I saw people talking about how schools (specifically kids) are the biggest transmission vectors and here's a study that shows the opposite of that: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa955/5869860. And the study concludes a large numbers of the transmissions is adult to adult and not from children as many seem to be assuming (and this study explains why children are less likely to infect others: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766522).

 

Compare that to healthcare workers (who I think are the largest transmission vectors) who seem to be getting infected much more easily: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20090811v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.20105197v1

 

I mean, it's kinda common sense too. The people who interact with coronavirus patients the most are the ones that are gonna be the most likely to get infect.

 

Edit: And here are a couple of doctors from University of Vermont who talk about more studies done, where again, kids aren't likely to transmit the virus: https://www.uvm.edu/uvmnews/news/kids-rarely-transmit-covid-19-say-uvm-docs-top-journal?fbclid=IwAR1WCSc7fpPEQnKlSrW5NUIVkn2EgDCN0DF3xkoT5TI3GUqt1zogM9ECzpM

Edited by lorddemaxus
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29 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

So, I saw people talking about how schools (specifically kids) are the biggest transmission vectors and here's a study that shows the opposite of that: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa955/5869860. And the study concludes a large numbers of the transmissions is adult to adult and not from children as many seem to be assuming (and this study explains why children are less likely to infect others: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766522).

 

Compare that to healthcare workers (who I think are the largest transmission vectors) who seem to be getting infected much more easily: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20090811v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.20105197v1

 

I mean, it's kinda common sense too. The people who interact with coronavirus patients the most are the ones that are gonna be the most likely to get infect.

 

Edit: And here are a couple of doctors from University of Vermont who talk about more studies done, where again, kids aren't likely to transmit the virus: https://www.uvm.edu/uvmnews/news/kids-rarely-transmit-covid-19-say-uvm-docs-top-journal?fbclid=IwAR1WCSc7fpPEQnKlSrW5NUIVkn2EgDCN0DF3xkoT5TI3GUqt1zogM9ECzpM

Bou,m buying the Trump line are we?

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