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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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6 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Fall is going to be great...

 

 

There is something way off though. They say there were 1400 new cases in June. Well, Worldometer has over 8000.

 

Maybe 1400 cases with a known background? School Tracing is pretty easy I guess. 

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58 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

So, I saw people talking about how schools (specifically kids) are the biggest transmission vectors and here's a study that shows the opposite of that: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa955/5869860. And the study concludes a large numbers of the transmissions is adult to adult and not from children as many seem to be assuming (and this study explains why children are less likely to infect others: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766522).

 

Compare that to healthcare workers (who I think are the largest transmission vectors) who seem to be getting infected much more easily: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.27.20090811v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.18.20105197v1

 

I mean, it's kinda common sense too. The people who interact with coronavirus patients the most are the ones that are gonna be the most likely to get infect.

 

Edit: And here are a couple of doctors from University of Vermont who talk about more studies done, where again, kids aren't likely to transmit the virus: https://www.uvm.edu/uvmnews/news/kids-rarely-transmit-covid-19-say-uvm-docs-top-journal?fbclid=IwAR1WCSc7fpPEQnKlSrW5NUIVkn2EgDCN0DF3xkoT5TI3GUqt1zogM9ECzpM

That does not make health care professionals a transmission vector. Being likely to contract COVID is not equal to being likely to spread COVID.

 

I don't think anyone sane would argue against the point that those working in health care (and the food service & grocery industries if we're considering everything) are the most likely to get COVID. Of my relatives who have gotten it, all of them work in that sector in some capacity. Most are nurses, one is an administrator in a hospital, and the other works for the CDC in a field office. Those are all high risk jobs to contract COVID. Why? Because they encounter sick people and some of them, perhaps many of them, have COVID.

 

However, where COVID is most likely to spread is where germs spread easily. How many super-spreader events are linked to a hospital or doctor's office? I haven't heard of any. Instead, those are going to happen in places like diners, cruise ships, stadiums and schools. Those are the places where extreme caution is needed. Hospitals already have strong sanitary protocols. It goes with the territory. Schools are the opposite. Kids have horrible hygiene.

 

Also, while there are studies that indicate children aren't a transmission source... this is not a black and white situation. Schools run the age gamut from 3-4 years old pre-schoolers to 18 year old high school seniors. At what age do kids become susceptible to COVID? What ages can carry it and transmit it? Multiple outbreaks have been linked to high schools, including this one, so they are definitely capable of transmitting it. More information needs to be accrued before we can come to any real conclusions. If the cutoff is something like 12 or 13 in general, do we say elementary schools are OK but middle schools / junior high and high schools are out? I'm going to call BS on anyone who says all schools are fine to open, because that's insanity. Becoming an adult isn't just a flip of the switch.

 

Finally, how many schools have you ever seen with no adults in them? Who is going to teach? Serve lunches? Drive the bus? Run the offices? Clean the building? Schools can't be open without heavy adult involvement, and that in and of itself is problematic. It does no good to have an open school with a population of kids that seemingly can't get COVID when the whole adult staff goes down with it.

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12 minutes ago, doublejack said:

That does not make health care professionals a transmission vector. Being likely to contract COVID is not equal to being likely to spread COVID.

 

I don't think anyone sane would argue against the point that those working in health care (and the food service & grocery industries if we're considering everything) are the most likely to get COVID. Of my relatives who have gotten it, all of them work in that sector in some capacity. Most are nurses, one is an administrator in a hospital, and the other works for the CDC in a field office. Those are all high risk jobs to contract COVID. Why? Because they encounter sick people and some of them, perhaps many of them, have COVID.

 

However, where COVID is most likely to spread is where germs spread easily. How many super-spreader events are linked to a hospital or doctor's office? I haven't heard of any. Instead, those are going to happen in places like diners, cruise ships, stadiums and schools. Those are the places where extreme caution is needed. Hospitals already have strong sanitary protocols. It goes with the territory. Schools are the opposite. Kids have horrible hygiene.

You're going to hear about super-spreader events from those places because they aren't getting infected from doing their jobs but from being dumbasses.

 

And here's a study (news reports with no scientific analysis aren't really going to sway my opinion on this) where 80% people in the same households as healthcare workers got tested positive: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.01.20119602v1

 

Also, just germs is a pretty big oversimplification of how the virus can spread. There's study I linked above regarding ACE2 levels in children that make it less likely for them to spread. And here's another study that talks about how children are weak transmitters: https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2020.06.0304

 

I don't think schools should re-open but I also don't children are the biggest transmitters.

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Dr. Fauci said today he is cautiously optimistic that if all goes well we will have a vaccine in one to one and one half years.

 

The world should see a vaccine that protects people from Covid-19 within the next year to year and a half, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.

And companies making the vaccines have reassured him they will be able to make up to a billion doses, Fauci said during a Georgetown University Global Health Initiative webinar. That’s more than the US would need.

“So right away, I’m feeling much better about getting a vaccine that’s distributed not only within our country, but then to be able to have doses for people throughout the world, who cannot afford, nor are they in a situation where it’s very easy for them to get vaccinated,” Fauci said.

Fauci said that while no vaccine is going to be 100% protective, scientists think there will be herd immunity if there are enough survivors from the disease and enough people get vaccinated with one that is 70% to 75% effective.

“And I hope that that time will be reasonably soon,” he said. “When I say ‘soon,’ I say within the next year to year and a half.”

Earlier Tuesday, vaccine maker Moderna, which has the backing of the US government, said its Phase 1 safety data showed two doses of its experimental vaccine elicited an antibody response in 100% of volunteers with no serious safety problems. Moderna said it would begin Phase 3 experiments, the last stage before approval, on July 27 with 30,000 volunteers.

The World Health Organization says 23 potential coronavirus vaccines are being tested in people around the world.

 

 

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This article from the Wall Street Journal is behind a paywall but it says that some Isreali health experts believe reopening the schools in May was one of the major contributors to Isreal's current outbreak.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/israelis-fear-schools-reopened-too-soon-as-covid-19-cases-climb-11594760001

 

 

https://www.jta.org/2020/07/06/israel/israel-thought-it-had-crushed-covid-19-then-cases-surged-and-restrictions-were-reinstated

 

My main takeaway is you have to be so careful in everything you do. It has to be measured, it has to be slow. You can't rush things - whether it is opening businesses or opening schools. And you need consistent messaging that things are not over even when it is going well. It's too easy for it to come back otherwise.

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2 hours ago, grim22 said:

WTF

It is more alarming when this talking point comes from the CDC director himself:

Quote

 

And worse, the CDC could change the guidelines like they did for religious gatherings (since then, related or not: many outbreaks there).

Edited by MrGlass2
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If this happens, the US will be in the same category as Iran or Russia. An authoritarian government trying to suppress information from the public about the pandemic to gain political advantages.

 

Trump and the Republican party are literally the worst scumbags i cant. F*ck them.

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2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

If this happens, the US will be in the same category as Iran or Russia. An authoritarian government trying to suppress information from the public about the pandemic to gain political advantages.

 

Trump and the Republican party are literally the worst scumbags i cant. F*ck them.

I cant get my head around why the president has so much executive power.

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15 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

Dr. Fauci said today he is cautiously optimistic that if all goes well we will have a vaccine in one to one and one half years.

 

 

 

 

I like Fauci, but i think he's reluctant to encourage people that some good news may come

 

 

"If the Oxford vaccine is proven effective, it could go into mass production as early as September,"

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/positive-news-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-could-come-tomorrow-report-11594810998517.html

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21 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I like Fauci, but i think he's reluctant to encourage people that some good news may come

 

 

"If the Oxford vaccine is proven effective, it could go into mass production as early as September,"

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/positive-news-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-could-come-tomorrow-report-11594810998517.html

ANd I am cnvinced that false optimism is one of the major reasons we are in this mess.

And I think that article is way too optimistic as to timing. I have not see any other source predicting mass distriubtion of a vaccine so soon.

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28 minutes ago, dudalb said:

ANd I am cnvinced that false optimism is one of the major reasons we are in this mess.

And I think that article is way too optimistic as to timing. I have not see any other source predicting mass distriubtion of a vaccine so soon.

It's already in production.

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Btw, the general attempt from the Trump administration to discredit Dr. Fauci is one of the most pathetic things ive ever witnessed.

 

From now on, i will see every disaster movie with different eyes. More often then not, in these movies the government listens at some point to the scientists and takes logical steps forward to bring the Tornado/Hurricane/Alien Invasion under control. That now seems extremely unrealistic to me and i would see it as a flaw.

 

Way more realistic are the Jurassic Park sequels were the park managers nonstop ignore the disasters that have happened before and continue to let people get eaten by dinosaurs. In that sense, the further away the Jurassic Park movies go from common sense, the more realistic they get.

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