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Florida reporting 13,965 cases and 156 deaths this morning.

That's a new record high of deaths and second highest number of cases.

 

Miami mayor says hospitals are 95% full at this point.

 

Arizona

  • Morgues are filling up: In Maricopa County, which has the most Covid-19 cases in the state, the medical examiner's office has ordered four portable coolers as morgues begin to fill up, said Fields Moseley, the county spokesperson.
  • Out-of-state help needed: State health officials have also announced they're bringing nearly 600 critical care and medical-surgical nurses from out of state to help as they enhance their internal surge plans to fill staffing gaps.

California

  • New records: The country's most populous state set two more records yesterday with highs for hospitalizations and ICU admissions.
  • New lockdowns possible: In Los Angeles County, the public health director warned another stay-at-home order is likely: "We can't take anything off the table — there's absolutely no certainty of what exactly is going to happen next," Dr. Barbara Ferrer said.

Florida

  • Out of ICU beds: As of yesterday, more than 50 hospitals have reached intensive care unit capacity and show zero beds available, according to according to data released by the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA).
  • Hit harder than most countries: Since the start of the pandemic, the state has reported more than 301,000 positive cases of coronavirus. If Florida was its own country, only eight other countries would have a higher case count, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

Texas

  • Trucks for bodies: Two counties in Texas — Cameron and Hidalgo — are sharing a large refrigerated trailer to store bodies of coronavirus patients because of a lack of space at the morgues. San Antonio officials have also said they're requesting refrigerated trucks.
  • Hospitals in one city are full: In South Texas, hospitals in Laredo are full and the federal government is converting a hotel into a health care facility.
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"You know, these radical leftist they think, that by dying that they can make me look bad but theyre failing as hard as is sleepy Joe in the polls! Dying is a hoax, noboby is dying!"

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2 hours ago, doublejack said:

Fox News is even reporting this? Wow.

Not sure what to make of that story, is the ratio in positive test from the under-18 vs general population different than in other states or ....?

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22 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

220K deaths by November in America still seems like kind of a reach. Doesn't seem like deaths are massively increasing enough for that to happen.

Youyang Gu has 225k by Nov 1, and it’s been going up recently as the actuals come in above projected. Deaths are definitely increasing fast enough.

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36 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

220K deaths by November in America still seems like kind of a reach. Doesn't seem like deaths are massively increasing enough for that to happen.

?

 

That means 80k additional deaths in ~105 days, or 762 deaths/day on average.

The current 7-day average is 760 deaths/day.

 

Now it isn't a given that it will stay that high for months. It will probably increase in the next couple of weeks but after that, it all depends on government actions especially in the most populous states.

Edited by MrGlass2
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36 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

220K deaths by November in America still seems like kind of a reach. Doesn't seem like deaths are massively increasing enough for that to happen.

it doesn't have to increase alot as long as it doesn't go down fast.

Both the IHME model and Youyang Gu model have similar numbers. it's more about a consistent death toll. Both have just very steady increases and then decreases over the next 3 1/2 months so that it avg to about 800 day. Do that for the next 100 days and you end up close to 220K.

Both those models have adjusted upward about 15K in the last week due to the rise in death totals last week. (They were both expecting small rises last week where the totals would be about 540 per day, not the 700+ we got).

 

 

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If you are from the US, this website from the Georgia Tech Applied BioInformatics Laboratory allows you to pick any county in the US, pick an event size from 10 to 10,000 and it will provide a risk assessment of the likelihood that at least 1 person at the event will be COVID19 positive.

 

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/?fbclid=IwAR3zlJTaIqseFn0BVFxmX1sy8YuuxKnQDm_HlQ2EuB0GjXdWEJF3KNs_DEc

 

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If you can read this article I couldn't recommend it more highly. A hugely in-depth piece on Dr. Fauci, his life and how he has worked in DC for the last 35+ years. Amazing

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/16/anthony-fauci-built-truce-trump-is-destroying-it/?arc404=true

 

i thought this was an incredible 2 paragraphs.

The People’s Republic of China posted the genetic code for the novel coronavirus on the Internet on Jan. 10.

The very next morning, on Jan. 11, Fauci called up Barney Graham, deputy director of the Vaccine Research Center at NIH, and told him to strap in for speed. Normally, it takes several years and hundreds of millions of dollars to make a vaccine. A year for animal studies, then a year for trials among healthy young people, then a year for trials among risky populations and then, finally, a year for a randomized trial of, say, 30,000 people or more.

 

Fauci said that wouldn’t be fast enough this time. They had to do it all at once. The two scientists pulled biotechnology companies into the process that same day. The firms were concerned that going at warp speed would cost a fortune. “I told them don’t worry about the money,” Fauci says. “This is an emergency. We will find the money. Go ahead and do it.”

Edited by RamblinRed
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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Not sure what to make of that story, is the ratio in positive test from the under-18 vs general population different than in other states or ....?

Yeah, that positive ratio is much higher than in other states. I don't know what that means either. Is it because Florida is testing more children, or not testing as many? Maybe they are only testing kids that appear to be symptomatic?

 

It is an alarmingly high percentage and confirms that plenty of minors do get COVID, but it is unclear at this time exactly what the implications are.

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17 minutes ago, doublejack said:

Yeah, that positive ratio is much higher than in other states. I don't know what that means either. Is it because Florida is testing more children, or not testing as many? Maybe they are only testing kids that appear to be symptomatic?

 

It is an alarmingly high percentage and confirms that plenty of minors do get COVID, but it is unclear at this time exactly what the implications are.

If that's a random test, it's crazy numbers.

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30 minutes ago, AndyK said:

If that's a random test, it's crazy numbers.

It is not, the news is that a high percentage of the under 18 population that get tested turn out positive in florida but considering that the positive testing rate of the general population is also extremely high at above 11%, that probably of a situation of even lower testing going on among them in a place with little testing going versus the volume in the population (that would be logical to be the case, that the young get less tested, has their symptoms will tend to be more weak, that implication of being positive on what to actively do being often nothing at the moment and so on).

 

48 minutes ago, doublejack said:

Yeah, that positive ratio is much higher than in other states. I don't know what that means either. Is it because Florida is testing more children, or not testing as many? Maybe they are only testing kids that appear to be symptomatic?

 

It is an alarmingly high percentage and confirms that plenty of minors do get COVID, but it is unclear at this time exactly what the implications are.

I cannot see a scenario where testing more children in any way can give an higher level of positive covid test, it will always go down (outside some strange testing less low-asymptomatic to focus more on the heaviest case while testing more doing so).

 

One implication is that Florida like almost everywhere have a lot of covid patient never tested (maybe still more than those that are found for the under 18 group)

Edited by Barnack
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Most recent HCQ updates from the Annals of Medicine - since Peter Navarro and the Wall Street Journal seem to be bringing this up.

 

First, a review of articles showing lots of bias

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/L20-0945

 

Second a brand new random controlled study by the Univ of Minnesota (Skipper, et al., that looks at whether HCQ is effective in early onset phases. Conclusion is no. It is no more effective than a placebo and has more side effects (though mostly minor).

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4207

 

Third, an editorial on the saga of HCQ research

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5041

 

Taken together with the other published RCTs, the current study by Skipper and colleagues (9) provides strong evidence that hydroxychloroquine offers no benefit in patients with mild illness. If the peer-reviewed findings confirm the preliminary reports of no benefit in sicker patients in the National Institutes of Health and RECOVERY trials, the saga of hydroxychloroquine and COVID-19 will likely reach its sad end.

 

 

The apparent ineffectiveness of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment of COVID-19 should not come as a surprise. Of all novel drugs that enter clinical phases of testing, about 90% fail to demonstrate effectiveness and safety. More simply put, many good ideas in medicine do not work. There is no shame in acknowledging that. But there are deeper lessons to be learned from the hydroxychloroquine experience in the current pandemic.

 

London and Kimmelman (10) have convincingly argued that research standards should not be lowered during a pandemic. However, there are enormous challenges to conducting and reporting research in such times as these. Hospitals overwhelmed with the provision of clinical care have had little spare capacity for conducting rigorous research. Patients, physicians, and politicians have been desperate for effective therapies and too willing to rely on thin scientific evidence. Individual groups and hospitals have launched scores of trials that will never meet their enrollment targets because of lack of coordination and cooperation among competing investigators and health care systems. The emergence of preprint servers, such as medRxiv, has allowed widespread dissemination of work that has not undergone careful review. Prestigious journals have worked feverishly to rapidly review studies that could have immediate impact but have occasionally fallen victim to deceit, damaging public confidence in their status as arbiters and presenters of objective facts. The scientific community needs to do a good bit of stock-taking and soul-searching about its performance in meeting the challenges of the pandemic and how it will meet these challenges in future pandemics that are certain to emerge.

 

Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over, but the emergence of data from well-done RCTs is a welcome development. Results of carefully done research, such as Skipper and colleagues' RCT, set an example for how we should search for effective therapies. It is time to move on from hydroxychloroquine.

 

 

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White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany reiterated that President Trump supports opening schools fully, without any kind of remote learning in the fall, and she argued “science should not stand in the way” of that goal.

“When he says open, he means open in in full, kids being able to attend each and every day at their school,” McEnany told reporters at the press briefing. “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

“The science is on our side here,” she added. 

McEnany cited a Journal of the American Medical Association pediatric study of 46 hospitals that she said showed the risk to children posed by Covid-19 is less than that posed by the seasonal flu.

“We encourage for localities and states to just simply follow the science, open our schools. It’s very damaging to our children,” she said. “There’s a lack of reporting of abuse, there’s mental depressions that are not addressed, suicidal ideations that are not address when students are not in school.”

Remember: Many experts worry about returning to classrooms not necessarily because of the risk to the students themselves, but because of the risk that children could worsen the spread of coronavirus by bringing it home to older relatives and because teachers and school employees would also be put at risk for serious illness.  

Despite Trump’s aggressive push for school reopenings, a number of the nation’s largest school districts have announced they will not return for in-person learning at the start of the school year in the fall.

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You might call this karma (though it isn't really funny).

Florida's Emergency Operations Center has had to be shut down for cleaning following a dozen people there testing positive for COVID19.

Expected to be closed until Monday with people working remote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/coronavirus-cases-shut-down-floridas-emergency-operations-center/2020/07/16/492c112a-c782-11ea-8ffe-372be8d82298_story.html

 

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9 hours ago, peludo said:

Same here. Barcelona area is becoming really worrying. Its main satellite city (Hospitalet, population 300k, 5 km away from Barcelona) could be confined within a few days.

 

Some regions have started the same politics than you say: mandatory masks in every public space. And I guess it will be mandatory in the whole country sooner than later. In my city, I see most people wearing masks (maybe 90%), but I hear than in other regions the use is way lower, with absurd behaviour from young people.

 

Football team Real Madrid, which could win La Liga tonight, has begged supporters to not celebrate the success as usual, in Cibeles fountain, in the city center. But I guess that many will not obey...

 

You are absolutely right: it is sad, but the only way to prevent this is forcing people to do things, like wearing masks.

 

Good thing it's summer with all these people out instead of closed spaces, having these policies right now will make this much more manageable next Autumn/Fall and Winter :)

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