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10 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

Saturday numbers - so 7 day averages will increase 15 for deaths and about 300 for cases. 

 

So lots of cases but relatively few deaths compared to New York outbreak.

 

Summer effect.

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Robbie Collin sums it up well in the Telegraph this morning:

 

In other words, it’s crunch time. Will Hollywood pluck up the nerve to press on without America, or keep spinning out the delay and thereby hasten the demise of countless cinemas worldwide? If those August dates hold, Tenet and Mulan will almost certainly bomb by pre-Covid standards, unless they end up playing for months on end. But perhaps studios just have to accept those losses as a kind of down payment on the industry’s continued existence. If cinemas start expiring en masse in 2020, good luck breaking even in 2021.”

 

Pushing for studios to release their films worldwide, leaving America out. 
 

Fully agreed 

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3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Robbie Collin sums it up well in the Telegraph this morning:

 

In other words, it’s crunch time. Will Hollywood pluck up the nerve to press on without America, or keep spinning out the delay and thereby hasten the demise of countless cinemas worldwide? If those August dates hold, Tenet and Mulan will almost certainly bomb by pre-Covid standards, unless they end up playing for months on end. But perhaps studios just have to accept those losses as a kind of down payment on the industry’s continued existence. If cinemas start expiring en masse in 2020, good luck breaking even in 2021.”

 

Pushing for studios to release their films worldwide, leaving America out. 
 

Fully agreed 

Maybe go down the path of release worldwide day and date, limited where cinemas are closed. Where limited by covid move to PVOD after 4 weeks?

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3 hours ago, AndyK said:

So lots of cases but relatively few deaths compared to New York outbreak.

 

Summer effect.

I don't think it is really a summer effect.

I think it is a combination of

1. healthcare professionals have learned better how to treat it as they gain experience

2. the average age of infection is much younger (in some states by 30-40 yrs) and that means it is attacking a healthier population.

3. Hospitals aren't overrun yet (though we are getting really close in multiple cities)

 

If the hospitalizations continue to go up then I think the mortality rate will rise as healthcare systems become more stressed. The focus is always on beds, but that may be the least important metric. What starts to cause the numbers to explode is when resources run down - not enough medicine, not enough PPE, not enough doctors and nurses (who can only go so long). In general an ICU has 2 to at most 3 patients they are responsible for due to the amount of care ICU patients need. So if you create more ICU beds but don't have more staff than the general level of care is going to go down as the doctors and nurses get stretched thin and can't provide the same level of care.

 

We also know that the current variant in the US (G variant) is more contagious but either equally or less fatal than the original variant.

Right now the Youyang Gu model estimates that the virus is infecting 35% more people (90K) on a daily basis than in late March and that the total number infected is estimated to be 33% more (1.27M) now than in late March.

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2 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

1. healthcare professionals have learned better how to treat it as they gain experience

2. the average age of infection is much younger (in some states by 30-40 yrs) and that means it is attacking a healthier population.

3. Hospitals aren't overrun yet (though we are getting really close in multiple cities)


The testing is also much better than it was during the NY outbreak which also causes the case numbers to grow faster than deaths. Age of infection is a huge one given the steepness of the IFR/age curve.
 

2 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

We also know that the current variant in the US (G variant) is more contagious but either equally or less fatal than the original variant.


As far as I know, only one study has shown evidence suggestive of higher viral loads for G614. I don't think we actually know that it's more contagious.

In any case, G614 was also the vast majority of cases in NY (>80%).

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Cuba has reported no new domestic cases of Covid-19 for the first time in 130 days, as most of the country moved into the final phase of resuming normal activities with masks and social distancing.

Quote

Francisco Duran, head of epidemiology at the Ministry of Public Health, and who has updated the country daily on the pandemic, took off his mask during Sunday’s national broadcast to deliver the good news. Only a handful of Covid-19 cases were reported in Cuba over the last week, all in Havana. Most of the Caribbean island, home to 11.2 million inhabitants, has been free of the disease for more than a month.

 

Social distancing and wearing masks remain mandatory in most circumstances. The country has opened a group of isolated resorts key to international tourism. Phase three broadens international travel, depending on risk.

 

The communist-run country has been given high marks for its textbook handling of the pandemic. Cuba’s robust and free community-based health system, door-to-door search for carriers, isolation of the sick, suspected cases and contacts has allowed it to keep the number of infections under 2,500 with 87 deaths.

 

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4 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

1. healthcare professionals have learned better how to treat it as they gain experience

2. the average age of infection is much younger (in some states by 30-40 yrs) and that means it is attacking a healthier population.

3. Hospitals aren't overrun yet (though we are getting really close in multiple cities)

4. Limited testing.  In the early days you had to be already exhibiting moderate/sever symptoms to get a test so the positive to death was a lot higher

5. NY reports COVID death much like the CDC calculates flu deaths.  In many states COVID has to be listed as the primary cause of death which can lead to a lot of leeway especially amount locally elected coroners. 

 

I'm guessing in a few years when the data is analysed outside of politics we'll find the death rate was significantly higher.  It takes the CDC 2 years to officially calculate the official flu rate.

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5 hours ago, Jason said:


The testing is also much better than it was during the NY outbreak which also causes the case numbers to grow faster than deaths. Age of infection is a huge one given the steepness of the IFR/age curve.
 


As far as I know, only one study has shown evidence suggestive of higher viral loads for G614. I don't think we actually know that it's more contagious.

In any case, G614 was also the vast majority of cases in NY (>80%).

Whatever you feel about Sweden, the fact is, its provided a valuable reference point for comparing how a no lockdown strategy compares to a full lockdown strategy.

 

What it has shown is that it has allowed Covid to spread widely with infections and death rates vastly greater than its neighbours who deployed a full lockdown.

 

Its strategy definitely allowed the virus to spread widely throughout the population, not a good strategy to minimise deaths.

 

But...the Swedish straegy hasnt changed through the epidemic, yet the attack rate and subsequent decay to negligent levels is pretty much identical to other countries who applied full lockdowns, but too late.

 

There can be only 2 reasons for this, either herd immunity has been reached or the virus dies down in summer...iow, its seasonal, just like the other Corona viruses.

 

I don't believe herd immunity has been reached because even if the actual number of cases is 10 times the actual recorded, its still only amounts to 1/20th of the population.

 

So, in my opinion, Covid19 is seasonal, in Europe anyway, and the Spanish, French and British lockdowns were pointless, way too late to make a difference.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, AndyK said:

There can be only 2 reasons for this, either herd immunity has been reached or the virus dies down in summer...iow, its seasonal, just like the other Corona viruses.

 

More likely than either of these possibilities is that population changes in behaviour reduced the transmission. We know that in early stages about 80% of the spread happens from just 10-20% of individuals via superspreader events - avoid superspreader events and R goes below 1 without other interventions. We also know that the Swedish did in fact voluntarily adopt a number of changes in behaviour.

Given that Japan had a low rate of transmission even during their winter, and that the US is having a high rate of spread, population behavioural change is much more probably as a dominant factor than seasonality.

The other coronaviruses are seasonal because their R in winter is only around 1-1.3 so a small drop in transmission is enough to bring R below 1. That's not the case for SARS-CoV-2, where R > 2.5 in winter. At this time, summer weather is not enough to drive R below 1 all by itself, which we are seeing clearly demonstrated by the example of the United States.
 

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

But...the Swedish straegy hasnt changed through the epidemic, yet the attack rate and subsequent decay to negligent levels is pretty much identical to other countries who applied full lockdowns, but too late.

For someone so obsessed with the "herd immunity strategy", it is surprising that you don't even follow what is happening in your beloved Sweden. They have switched to test&trace like everyone else, or at least they are trying. The strategy has changed due to the revolting death toll and because most people (except the few hacks and cranks you keep quoting in this thread) now realize that the "herd immunity strategy" was a stupid idea to begin with, and has been a costly and criminal disaster everywhere it has been willingly attempted.

 

Also Sweden now reports its numbers a few times per week and "backwards", so it always looks like cases and deaths are plummeting. So actually, their infection rate is still way higher than most countries in Western Europe (including all the "full lockdowns" ones: 10x higher than Italy).

 

1 hour ago, AndyK said:

 

So, in my opinion, Covid19 is seasonal, in Europe anyway, and the Spanish, French and British lockdowns were pointless, way too late to make a difference.

And this is why you shouldn't take all your information from YouTube. It is pretty astonishing to follow the coronavirus developments for months, and come to this conclusion.

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8 hours ago, Jason said:


The testing is also much better than it was during the NY outbreak which also causes the case numbers to grow faster than deaths. Age of infection is a huge one given the steepness of the IFR/age curve.
 


As far as I know, only one study has shown evidence suggestive of higher viral loads for G614. I don't think we actually know that it's more contagious.

In any case, G614 was also the vast majority of cases in NY (>80%).

Better but still shitty. All over people are still waiting days for results. It's pathetic and infuriating. Especially for my wife.

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Question: Does the White House already control the data from the hospitals or does the CDC still give updates? And if not, do the hospitals only release the data to one source or officually (meaning John Hopkins or other Covid number trackers could still get the data)? Because i personally wont trust any number that would only get released from the Trump Administration.

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54 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

More likely than either of these possibilities is that population changes in behaviour reduced the transmission. We know that in early stages about 80% of the spread happens from just 10-20% of individuals via superspreader events - avoid superspreader events and R goes below 1 without other interventions. We also know that the Swedish did in fact voluntarily adopt a number of changes in behaviour.

Given that Japan had a low rate of transmission even during their winter, and that the US is having a high rate of spread, population behavioural change is much more probably as a dominant factor than seasonality.

The other coronaviruses are seasonal because their R in winter is only around 1-1.3 so a small drop in transmission is enough to bring R below 1. That's not the case for SARS-CoV-2, where R > 2.5 in winter. At this time, summer weather is not enough to drive R below 1 all by itself, which we are seeing clearly demonstrated by the example of the United States.
 

few days ago it was 1.7 in Seattle :(

 

https://patch.com/washington/seattle/17-new-coronavirus-deaths-washington-total-cases-surpass-43k

 

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14 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Question: Does the White House already control the data from the hospitals or does the CDC still give updates? And if not, do the hospitals only release the data to one source or officually (meaning John Hopkins or other Covid number trackers could still get the data)? Because i personally wont trust any number that would only get released from the Trump Administration.

For new cases and deaths it won't change anything (for us), aggregation sites like Worldometer take data directly from counties and states, and the federal government doesn't control those.

 

The CDC included more detailed statistics (e.g hospitalizations) useful for researchers but they will probably remain available somewhere. Overall it was much ado about nothing.

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2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

For someone so obsessed with the "herd immunity strategy", it is surprising that you don't even follow what is happening in your beloved Sweden. They have switched to test&trace like everyone else, or at least they are trying. The strategy has changed due to the revolting death toll and because most people (except the few hacks and cranks you keep quoting in this thread) now realize that the "herd immunity strategy" was a stupid idea to begin with, and has been a costly and criminal disaster everywhere it has been willingly attempted.

 

Also Sweden now reports its numbers a few times per week and "backwards", so it always looks like cases and deaths are plummeting. So actually, their infection rate is still way higher than most countries in Western Europe (including all the "full lockdowns" ones: 10x higher than Italy).

 

And this is why you shouldn't take all your information from YouTube. It is pretty astonishing to follow the coronavirus developments for months, and come to this conclusion.

YouTUbe is the worst possible source for information as far reliabiltiy goes;Any kook can post a you tube, and it seems that every kood does.

The whole "Lockdowns did not goog: claim is BS. Just confirms my point that the herd immumnity people are simply annoyed with the inconvience that lockdown and restrictions call them. IMHO pure selfishness.

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7 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

For someone so obsessed with the "herd immunity strategy", it is surprising that you don't even follow what is happening in your beloved Sweden. They have switched to test&trace like everyone else, or at least they are trying. The strategy has changed due to the revolting death toll and because most people (except the few hacks and cranks you keep quoting in this thread) now realize that the "herd immunity strategy" was a stupid idea to begin with, and has been a costly and criminal disaster everywhere it has been willingly attempted.

 

Also Sweden now reports its numbers a few times per week and "backwards", so it always looks like cases and deaths are plummeting. So actually, their infection rate is still way higher than most countries in Western Europe (including all the "full lockdowns" ones: 10x higher than Italy).

 

And this is why you shouldn't take all your information from YouTube. It is pretty astonishing to follow the coronavirus developments for months, and come to this conclusion.

You really need to stop this, you have a  complete inability to have a rational discussion without throwing insults.

 

 

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when talking about Sweden, don't forget that they did also have measures, only not a full lockdown. Mobility reports showed mobility in Sweden went down by nearly the same percentage as in Germany or Austria.

In hindsight, the worst blunder in Sweden (imho) was leaving bars and restaurants open (with reduced seating, but still open) - probably worse than keeping schools open. With those bars closed, numbers might have been much more under control; as it is Sweden got a nearly uncontrollable spread in its few cities (mainly Stockholm area) and is now very close behind Italy when you count Covid19 deaths / capita. Sweden is still trying to recover from those spikes; the health system still far from normal:

https://www.thelocal.se/20200702/fewer-organ-transplants-in-sweden-during-coronavirus-outbreak

 

by comparison, in Austria, all hospitals are back to normal, the "backlog" of postponed treatments or operations is nearly 100% worked off, and there was no higher mortality than in other years. While in Sweden, the mortality is still slightly elevated:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

 

The fact that Austria's mortality is not elevated in any way also refutes the argument of some anti-lockdowners that the lockdown will (or has) cost more lives than it saves (the "the cure can't be worse than the problem" crowd)

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