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DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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9 hours ago, Jason said:

 

More likely than either of these possibilities is that population changes in behaviour reduced the transmission. We know that in early stages about 80% of the spread happens from just 10-20% of individuals via superspreader events - avoid superspreader events and R goes below 1 without other interventions. We also know that the Swedish did in fact voluntarily adopt a number of changes in behaviour.

Given that Japan had a low rate of transmission even during their winter, and that the US is having a high rate of spread, population behavioural change is much more probably as a dominant factor than seasonality.

The other coronaviruses are seasonal because their R in winter is only around 1-1.3 so a small drop in transmission is enough to bring R below 1. That's not the case for SARS-CoV-2, where R > 2.5 in winter. At this time, summer weather is not enough to drive R below 1 all by itself, which we are seeing clearly demonstrated by the example of the United States.
 

This is the new model for the UK, this looks very much like seasonality.

 

_113364690_deaths_chart-6-nc.png

Edited by AndyK

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17 minutes ago, AndyK said:

This is the new model for the UK, this looks very much like seasonality.

 

_113364690_deaths_chart-6-nc.png

Edited by AndyK

I don't know ... what I see here looks like a prediction under the assumption that it is seasonal.

 

fwiw, for most of Europe, that's a reasonable assumption, because mucous membranes are in general more vulnerable in winter, and people stay indoors - but the question is how much seasonality there is to this virus. As we are witnessing right now in the US, with a heat wave in wide parts of the south, temperature alone dosn't slow the spread at all.

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3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

I don't know ... what I see here looks like a prediction under the assumption that it is seasonal.

 

fwiw, for most of Europe, that's a reasonable assumption, because mucous membranes are in general more vulnerable in winter, and people stay indoors - but the question is how much seasonality there is to this virus. As we are witnessing right now in the US, with a heat wave in wide parts of the south, temperature alone dosn't slow the spread at all.

and Spain is spiking as well in Barcelona, the common denominator being that they are not just warm places, they are hot places, which drives people indoors and into air conditioning.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

 

Why did they lock down the whole of Melbourne at just 190 cases ?

 

I thought track and trace was the way to go?

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Contact tracing not going too well in UK.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Contact tracing not going too well in UK.

 

 

When the inquiry happens the two bigest talking points will be:

1 ) What the hell happened in care homes

2 ) How the hell was test and trace so wildly overpromised.

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3 hours ago, AndyK said:

Looks like Prof Sikora was right all along.

The problem is that you keep posting this kind of garbage: some magical pre-existing immunity means that the "herd immunity strategy" could work after all, it wasn't a stupid and criminal idea?! The cancer hack made these bold predictions, that is why Internet loved him so much for a time:

Quote

 

At this point, the "herd immunity" crowd isn't all that different from people who believe Trump's predictions, or conspiracy theorists who think hydroxychloroquine studies have been censored by the WHO.

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14 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The problem is that you keep posting this kind of garbage: some magical pre-existing immunity means that the "herd immunity strategy" could work after all, it wasn't a stupid and criminal idea?! The cancer hack made these bold predictions, that is why Internet loved him so much for a time:

At this point, the "herd immunity" crowd isn't all that different from people who believe Trump's predictions, or conspiracy theorists who think hydroxychloroquine studies have been censored by the WHO.

I 1000% agree.

ANybody who still thinks there is some magic bullet for this which will end the pandemic in a couple of weeks and then back to normal  is living in a fantasy world.

Sadly, the POTUS is among them.

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19 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I 1000% agree.

ANybody who still thinks there is some magic bullet for this which will end the pandemic in a couple of weeks and then back to normal  is living in a fantasy world.

Sadly, the POTUS is among them.

That doesn't make the research uninteresting or not worth discussing.

 

If you want everyone to sing from the same hymn sheet because of some preconceived notion that your opinion is the only one of any worth, then your probably in the wrong place.

 

These are all papers from well respected sources and they know more than you or I do.

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4 minutes ago, AndyK said:

That doesn't make the research uninteresting or not worth discussing.

 

If you want everyone to sing from the same hymn sheet because of some preconceived notion that your opinion is the only one of any worth, then your probably in the wrong place.

 

These are all papers from well respected sources and they know more than you or I do.

There is, on one side, serious research.

 

On the other, there is your desperate spin on these links to try and pretend that "herd immunity strategy" hasn't been a complete disaster everywhere it has been tried. And because every single country who originally was going for this strategy has now given up on it, dead-enders like you will continue to claim that it could have worked - we just needed to let more people die faster until the magical immunity kicked in.

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2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"70% of people developed fever or headache."

 

No gain with no pain I guess.

 

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48 minutes ago, AndyK said:

"70% of people developed fever or headache."

 

No gain with no pain I guess.

a slight fever is not that unusual after an inoculation. But I guess for the final product there's still a lot of finetuning to be done (not only side effects but also optimizing the immune answer etc)

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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

a slight fever is not that unusual after an inoculation. But I guess for the final product there's still a lot of finetuning to be done (not only side effects but also optimizing the immune answer etc)

Most experts are saying even if everything goes well, widespread deployment of the vaccine will not be until early 2021 at the earliest.

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