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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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In Austria, masks are now mandatory again in supermarkets, banks and so on. Plus there's a tight testing schedule for people returning from abroad, they need a negative PCR test not older than 3 days (can also be done the day after returning). The discussion was serious, most experts said that the numbers themselves (and medical evidence) did not support a mandatory mask rule, but there's a psychological side to it , too - with masks ubiquituous again, people are probably more cautious too - keeping a bit more distance and so on.

 

Overall, the recently spiking infections seem to be under control, most clusters are isolated, new infections <100 cases/day. (Our pop. is about 9mil). Most of the new clusters were from religious splinter groups (evangelical churches or sects) plus some meat packers as usual.

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US may be headed to its first 1,000 death day since May. Worldinfometers has US at 892 so far and neither Texas or CA have reported complete numbers yet and a number of smaller states are still outstanding.

 

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Unfortunately back in 4 digits. Cases same as last week, testing number down, deaths way up

 

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Today’s number of currently hospitalized (59k) COVID-19 patients is the third-highest in our data.

Increasing hospitalizations is worrisome.

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47 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

Increasing hospitalizations is worrisome.

It is, but it is also predictable. The daily death count should also continue to rise some, although thankfully treatment has improved from what it was a couple months ago so hopefully we don't see it get a lot worse than what it is. That said, if hospitals are overrun then the death rate will spike higher. We could also start seeing more people die at home, waiting too long to seek help or waiting for an ambulance that is slow to arrive because the 911 service is swamped. That was a factor in NY.

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This is all in Victoria.

 

 

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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

It is, but it is also predictable. The daily death count should also continue to rise some, although thankfully treatment has improved from what it was a couple months ago so hopefully we don't see it get a lot worse than what it is. That said, if hospitals are overrun then the death rate will spike higher. We could also start seeing more people die at home, waiting too long to seek help or waiting for an ambulance that is slow to arrive because the 911 service is swamped. That was a factor in NY.

I'm worried that our testing is going to be so broken that cases are going to start to plateau or go down and people are going to think things are getting better when it is simply a measure of the testing capacity breaking and hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise.

Reported deaths are up over 50% in just 2 weeks.

 

I'm also very concerned about how long can our healthcare systems deal with this before the strain causes it to break. I'm not as worried about how many ventilators, or ECMO's, or ICU beds or medicines - i'm worried about people.

As of today according to the Guardian there have been 821 deaths among healthcare workers and according to the CDC over 105,000 have gotten sick. We may break under human strain before we break under other issues,

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Worst day ever in Australia. Almost entirely new cases in Victoria. All of the cases in NSW for the last 3 days have been hotel quarantine or immediately linked to existing clusters by the contact traces. The NSW community transmission all traces back to Victoria from the genome testing. 
 

 

 

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I often wonder whether we are experiencing transition to the new normal in Germany or the calm before the storm.

I really think the good weather here (almost since the pandemic started) as helped enormously in keeping acceptance of restrictions high. The weather allows for a lot of outside activities again, even in larger groups. Even during the weeks of the "stronger" lockdown in March and April, the weather allowed for a lot of time outside.

 

I wonder what will happen once people have to move inside again. Restaurants, bars, culture... all of this will become more difficult again. I really hope that the end of summer, coupled with people returning home from vacation will not spark a new wave. We have handled the situation well so far... but it is also clear that a second wave and a second "lockdown" (actually, Germany as most countries and regions never had a complete lockdown but I guess the word is used more flexible) would vanquish the consensus that has so far carried us through this.

Edited by ShouldIBeHere
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1 hour ago, ShouldIBeHere said:

I often wonder whether we are experiencing transition to the new normal in Germany or the calm before the storm.

I really think the good weather here (almost since the pandemic started) as helped enormously in keeping acceptance of restrictions high. The weather allows for a lot of outside activities again, even in larger groups. Even during the weeks of the "stronger" lockdown in March and April, the weather allowed for a lot of time outside.

 

I wonder what will happen once people have to move inside again. Restaurants, bars, culture... all of this will become more difficult again. I really hope that the end of summer, coupled with people returning home from vacation will not spark a new wave. We have handled the situation well so far... but it is also clear that a second wave and a second "lockdown" (actually, Germany as most countries and regions never had a complete lockdown but I guess the word is used more flexible) would vanquish the consensus that has so far carried us through this.

Our colleagues in our Berlin office are still being furloughed for 2 weeks every month even though their order book is nearly back to normal.

 

Seems our American overlords are still screwing money out of Germany's  generous government furlough scheme.

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17 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Our colleagues in our Berlin office are still being furloughed for 2 weeks every month even though their order book is nearly back to normal.

 

Seems our American overlords are still screwing money out of Germany's  generous government furlough scheme.

Even if that is the case, it is still worth the amount of jobs these programs helped save, especially the Kurzarbeit.

Edited by ShouldIBeHere

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38 minutes ago, ShouldIBeHere said:

Even if that is the case, it is still worth the amount of jobs these programs helped save, especially the Kurzarbeit.

In the US we have had 9 people leave because they can not afford to live on their scheme.

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This article on the siutation in the Rio Grande Valley area of Texas.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/us/hidalgo-county-south-texas-covid-19/index.html

 

These comments are chilling

In a press conference Monday, Cameron County Judge Eddie Treviño Jr. said that the reporting of both positive cases and number of fatalities is running behind in the county. He said the reason is due to the health department being overwhelmed with the number of cases and deaths growing over the past six weeks.

 

Dr. James Castillo, the public health authority for the county health department, said during the press conference that the number of deaths would lag in reporting by a month or more. The reporting system is manual, and he said the staff is overwhelmed.

 

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53 minutes ago, AndyK said:

That seem quite reasonable:

Earlier this week, Tazeen Ahmad, an analyst with BofA, estimated that BioNTech’s vaccine program is worth about $11.7 billion. That’s based on an estimated $36 net price per dose in the U.S., $30 per dose in the European Union and $12 per dose in the rest of the world.

 

You want to create a giant world race for it with giants efforts (i.e. huge rewards) at the same time you want many billions of doses, if it it end up only $15bn in revenues (revenues not profit) that a deal, $15 billion that how many days of economical covid cost worldwide ? not many.

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5 hours ago, ShouldIBeHere said:

 

I wonder what will happen once people have to move inside again. Restaurants, bars, culture... all of this will become more difficult again. I really hope that the end of summer, coupled with people returning home from vacation will not spark a new wave.

Universities and schools fully reopening could be enough to start a second wave, too many countries think they "beat" the virus.

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First time today that India reports over 1000 official deaths. Although the real numbers are surely much higher.

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8 hours ago, AndyK said:

Interesting that Smallpox antibodies are down 75%  6 months after vaccination yet the vaccine protects for decades.

 

Why not to worry about declining antibodies.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/could-covid-19-immunity-really-disappear-months/614377/

Smallpox has been eradicated.

 

EDIT: Going more into the relevant part of that article, emphasis mine:

 

Quote

Second, the virologist Shane Crotty told me that while the decline in antibodies was troubling, it was hardly catastrophic. “It’s not unusual to have fading antibody response after several months,” he said. “The drop-off isn’t that surprising. When you look at something like the smallpox vaccine, you see the antibody response is down about 75 percent after six months. But that’s a vaccine that works for decades. We need a study like this to look at COVID patients six months after infection to really know what we’re dealing with.” It’s been six months since the first American COVID-19 patient went to the hospital. Those studies will surely come.

Essentially, don't compare a vaccine for a virus that's been wiped off the earth for 40 years to a vaccine still in development for a virus we've known about for half a year.

Edited by OncomingStorm93

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