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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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11 hours ago, AndyK said:

Interesting that Smallpox antibodies are down 75%  6 months after vaccination yet the vaccine protects for decades.

 

Why not to worry about declining antibodies.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/could-covid-19-immunity-really-disappear-months/614377/

 

3 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Smallpox has been eradicated.

 

~snip~

 

Essentially, don't compare a vaccine for a virus that's been wiped off the earth for 40 years to a vaccine still in development for a virus we've known about for half a year.


The article doesn't directly explain why the smallpox vaccine (among others) maintains complete effectiveness for very long periods of time. (although one of the scientists quoted to alludes to it)

One of the major reasons is that smallpox has a long incubation time. This means that even in the absence of circulating antibodies, memory B-cells have time to proliferate and produce new ones. (The other reason is that smallpox has a very low mutation rate.)

COVID has a fairly short incubation time, so a fairly probable result is that an effective vaccine won't prevent illness completely for very long, but will still be able to lessen the severity/duration of illness.

I expect the worst-case scenario is that to maintain a high degree of protection, the COVID vaccine will be something that needs to be re-administered frequently, perhaps even every year like the flu shot. Hopefully, we'll find that a sufficient degree of protection lasts for significantly longer than that. But that's not something we're going to know for sure for a while.

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Going to be another 1000+ day unfortunately.

TX reported 197 deaths this afternoon. 

 

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2 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

 

First time with back to back days over 1,000 since the last week of May. Really going the wrong way right now.

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Big thank you to the NSW Health contact tracing teams. 
 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, AndyK said:

This doesn't make any sense, it's not logical and I don't believe it.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/school-closures-a-mistake-as-no-teachers-infected-in-classroom-gpppq8r7k


There's a hedge there, he said "confirmed". If you search the news, in countries with COVID outbreaks linked to schools, there are plenty of teachers who got COVID, it's just that tracing can't determine who it was acquired from (via other staff, students etc.)

There just haven't been school outbreaks in the countries that have extremely thorough contact tracing. (Edit: see post below, Australia confirmed students as a source for an outbreak that infected teachers. Also, need to check Korea.)

He missed his calling, he should have been a politician.

Edited by Jason
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9 minutes ago, Jason said:


There's a hedge there, he said "confirmed". If you search the news, in countries with COVID outbreaks linked to schools, there are plenty of teachers who got COVID, it's just that tracing can't determine who it was acquired from (via other staff, students etc.)

There just haven't been school outbreaks in the countries that have extremely thorough contact tracing.

He missed his calling, he should have been a politician.

https://amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/senior-students-behind-runaway-covid-19-cluster-at-al-taqwa-college-20200707-p559wd.html

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19 minutes ago, Jason said:


Oh, so even with the hedge, he's just wrong. (the most charitable interpretation)

Didn’t the South Korea study also have multiple cases?

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It's the same with supermarkets; the re-introduction of masks here in Austria was countered with the "fact that there was not a single contamination which happened in supermarkets or groceries". Meaning of course that no infection could be reliably traced to such a source. Which wouldn't sound as impressive, since, in March/April, about 60% of all cases couldn't be traced to a specific source.

 

Schools are (and were always) multipliers for every kind of contagious disease; you should have some extremely strong arguments if you want to maintain that it's not so for Covid19.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Didn’t the South Korea study also have multiple cases?


If it was the one from quite some time ago, I thought maybe that it wasn't "confirmed" that the teachers had got it from the students rather than the other way around. But I'll be honest, I didn't check for the details.

It was a little too hard for me to imagine that an epidemiologist would have been completely unaware of or completely misinterpreted those results given the prominence of the findings, so I presumed it was a just a hedge.

Honestly though, either way he's pushing an idea that really isn't supported by the data and that's awful.

I'm actually forgiving of the notion that on balance, schools being open with precautions would be of net benefit in most countries (that have controlled their outbreak). But pretending there's no risk of transmission from children is ridiculous and potentially dangerous.
 

Edited by Jason
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No one will like a study with obvious results "you can't open schools during the pandemic". Basically every american or european study is trying to prove  otherwise.

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@MrGlass2 favourite person thinks that - apart from the deaths - Swedens strategy has been a complete success.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, AndyK said:

@MrGlass2 favourite person thinks that - apart from the deaths - Swedens strategy has been a complete success.

There is no difference between you, and people who watch Trump news conferences and believe every word of it. Just picking the worst source of information then following it religiously for months, no matter how ridiculous it becomes.

 

On a more positive note, the "herd immunity strategy" has been abandoned everywhere (because it was idiotic and a disastrous failure) and only survives in the dumbest YouTube videos and Twitter comments - as it should.

2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

It's the same with supermarkets; the re-introduction of masks here in Austria was countered with the "fact that there was not a single contamination which happened in supermarkets or groceries". Meaning of course that no infection could be reliably traced to such a source. Which wouldn't sound as impressive, since, in March/April, about 60% of all cases couldn't be traced to a specific source.

It is the same with movie theaters, as far as I know. No cluster confirmed, but until recently they were open mostly in countries unable to do exhaustive contact tracing. We will see if China and South Korea find any.

1 hour ago, juni78ukr said:

No one will like a study with obvious results "you can't open schools during the pandemic". Basically every american or european study is trying to prove  otherwise.

Exactly. The best example was the study that "proved" children weren't contagious, based on the case of... 1 child.

Edited by MrGlass2

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1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:

There is no difference between you, and people who watch Trump news conferences and believe every word of it. Just picking the worst source of information then following it religiously for months, no matter how ridiculous it becomes.

 

On a more positive note, the "herd immunity strategy" has been abandoned everywhere (because it was idiotic and a disastrous failure) and only survives in the dumbest YouTube videos and Twitter comments - as it should.

It is the same with movie theaters, as far as I know. No cluster confirmed, but until recently they were open mostly in countries unable to do exhaustive contact tracing. We will see if China and South Korea find any.

Exactly. The best example was the study that "proved" children weren't contagious, based on the case of... 1 child.

Knew you'd love it.

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Outside the nutjob YouTube world, Sweden doesn't seem to have done great:

Quote

Sweden becomes an example of how not to handle COVID-19

Stockholm — As many nations introduced strict lockdowns as the coronavirus pandemic took hold earlier this year, Sweden took a totally different approach. You might call it lockdown-lite. The public health authorities banned gatherings of over 50 people, closed high schools and universities, and advised people to maintain a safe distance. But stores and restaurants have remained open throughout the pandemic, as have elementary and middle schools. The Swedish authorities argued this was a sustainable plan, one the public would back even if the measures had to stay in place for many months. In the long term, they believed it would protect both lives and the economy.

 

The economy, however, has still taken a serious hit, and many countries now see Sweden as a cautionary tale. Its closest neighbors, Denmark and Norway, have put strict limitations on travelers coming from Sweden. [And] the death toll from Sweden's outbreak is now the fifth-worst in the world, per capita. The country's mortality rate from the coronavirus is now 30% higher than that of the United States when adjusted for population size.

 

Sweden's government now admits that procedures in care homes at the outbreak of the pandemic were inadequate. As far Helen Gluckman is concerned, that's an understatement. Her 80-year-old father Jan died in a home in April.  Near the end, "he was squeezing my hand when I was talking to him," she told CBS News. "I think he heard me."

When Jan tested positive for COVID-19, the care home where he lived didn't send him to the hospital. Staff stopped monitoring his oxygen levels and gave him morphine. He died within days. "They didn't have any oxygen in the home, so there was nothing that they could do, or were doing, so I think it was better [for them] not knowing how bad his condition was," his daughter said. "They just gave him morphine, which kills a person after a while," Gluckman said, adding that if she had known at the time that "morphine will kill you, because it takes your breathing away," she never would have accepted it.

 

Asked how health care professionals could take such decisions — essentially making a call not to treat a patient — Gluckman said authorities in Stockholm seemed to decide early on that they weren't going to treat the elderly, perhaps to keep ICU beds available.

 

 @AndyK is going to love this:

Quote

Swedish scientists have called for stricter, more data-driven measures. National public health director Karin Tegmark Wisell told Palmer, however, that to avoid a potential new surge in infections in the autumn, Swedish officials would "keep up their current recommendations" and continue to study evolving research.

 

Palmer asked Soderberg, the Stockholm resident out shopping, if she was comfortable with that.

"I do trust them" she said. "Yes."

"Even now that you see the death rate?" Palmer asked. "It sounds a bit irrational if you'll forgive my saying so."

"Yes," said Soderberg, "but you also have to look at where the mortality statistics come from," she added, in an apparent reference to the fact that at least half the deaths occurred in care homes.

 

 

 

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