google-site-verification=EzRt-ZmNlc4J5RNLXiuJpAEGjNviG678nNB1w49cgZg Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

I guess the world can easily live a year or even more without bars, nightclubs and parties. Would be better for people too spending money on more sensible things. And after 3 weeks of tourists coming Spain is close to 2nd lockdown. If fact they already have it in some regions. 

It really actually can't because the economic harm from that will exceed the death total from staying safely open. America is a another story. We really need to get our shit together

 

Closing stuff for a month again sure. Even more than a year for the global economy locks a global depression that impacts the word for a decade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

It really actually can't because the economic harm from that will exceed the death total from staying safely open. America is a another story. We really need to get our shit together

 

Closing stuff for a month again sure. Even more than a year for the global economy locks a global depression that impacts the word for a decade.

There is going to be a much worse depression, costing more additional lives than covid (including the current depression), if bars and nightclubs can't open?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Well, yes, but keep in mind that business means people, too.

 

Here in Austria, tourism is a very important segment of the economy; in my Tyrol about 35% of GDP. Austria has done a remarkable job of bending thre curve and getting the virus under control, but by now, most restaurants, bars and so on are open, plus tourists everywhere (of course, a lot less then pre-Corona) and accordingly, cases are on the rise again. This is something we have to live with until a vaccine is available. We can't have 100% safety, the difficult thing is finding the balance between safe and out-of-control, and that's what we will be doing for the rest of the year.

I can only speak for the US, but yeah, this.

 

Keeping the economy closed for the whole year or until a vaccine was found was never a feasible option. We're already seeing businesses filing for bankruptcy on top of the millions without employment right now. The economic impact of this is going to be felt for years, possibly decades.

 

It's important that we slow the spread as much as possible, but it's also important that people are able to keep a roof over their heads. Of course, finding the right balance that minimizes the damage on both sides would require the entire country going along with this new normal, and we've already seen that a portion is unwilling to do that (the total lack of leadership in this country is also part of the problem but that's another story). Thus, we're in the situation we're in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

There is going to be a much worse depression, costing more additional lives than covid (including the current depression), if bars and nightclubs can't open?

 In the US, the bars and nightclubs industry is worth $23bn.

 

https://www.statista.com/topics/1752/bars-and-nightclubs/

 

So it's not going to be a big effect.

 

Different story for the UK where it was worth £66bn in 2015.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/11692161/Clubs-and-bars-are-vital-revenue-generators-for-UK-economy-not-hotbeds-of-binge-drinking-and-drug-abuse.html

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Of course, finding the right balance that minimizes the damage on both sides

exactly. We have to keep in mind that there is no "perfect" solution to this crisis. It's like a natural catastrophe, only at least one magnitude bigger. There simply is NO WAY we can go through this unscathed. The challenge iss all about keeping the damage as low as possible.

That being said, yep, the US seem to do pretty bad in this challenge ... really embarassing for the world's strongest economic force.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This idea that you can’t close all indoor operations of bars and restaurants for a year (or earlier if vaccine goes well) seems totally unsubstantiated to me. I strongly suspect that’s the option with the least economic damage, to say nothing of its obvious superiority on the public health front.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I work in a restaurant as I’ve mentioned before. A restaurant isn’t the same as a bar, and doesn’t have the same risks, but that doesn’t mean there’s no risks. We opened our dining room Friday and have plenty of space to spread people out but there’s always going to be risk associated with coming to an enclosed space like that. Our customers have to wear masks when they enter and can take them down/off at the table and then when they leave they have to wear them again. It’s the new normal so people understand that.

 

With that said I’m not sure what the right path is for indoor dining and bars. the industry is so big and employs so many people. For example our restaurant does between 6-7 million in sales yearly, we employ 80-90 people at any given time. Since we’ve been in lockdown we’ve only had 5 staff working. So that’s 80 or so people the government has been paying. Plus add in the other relief programs the government has been helping businesses with, we have a rent relief program that the government is covering 50% rent(plus 25% from the landlord) so we’re only paying 25% rent. We also have a wage subsidy as well where the government is covering 75% wage of staff for businesses that are heavily affected. That’s supposed to last to the end of the year(wage subsidy). But even with that and having no employees working we still aren’t making money. 
 

I’m completely fine with our government shutting down indoor dining and bars, as long as they compensate the businesses and employees so the industry stays viable for when we can finally return to work. I highly doubt anything like this would ever happen though as the costs associated seem like they would be massive. Someone who is smarter then me could calculate what costs more in respects to the spaces staying open versus what it would cost the health care system. And obviously I don’t think any amount of money is worth a life but I don’t know how to solve this issue. 
 

 

Edited by cax16
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cax16 said:

I work in a restaurant as I’ve mentioned before. A restaurant isn’t the same as a bar, and doesn’t have the same risks, but that doesn’t mean there’s no risks. We opened our dining room Friday and have plenty of space to spread people out but there’s always going to be risk associated with coming to an enclosed space like that. Our customers have to wear masks when they enter and can take them down/off at the table and then when they leave they have to wear them again. It’s the new normal so and people understand that.

 

With that said I’m not sure what the right path is for indoor dining and bars. the industry is so big and employs so many people. For example our restaurant does between 6-7 million in sales yearly, we employ 80-90 people at any given time. Since we’ve been in lockdown we’ve only had 5 staff working. So that’s 80 or so people the government has been paying. Plus add in the other relief programs the government has been helping businesses with, we have a rent relief program that the government is covering 50% rent(plus 25% from the landlord) so we’re only paying 25% rent. We also have a wage subsidy as well where the government is covering 75% wage of staff for businesses that are heavily affected. That’s supposed to last to the end of the year(wage subsidy). But even with that and having no employees working we still aren’t making money. 
 

I’m completely fine with our government shutting down indoor dining and bars, as long as they compensate the businesses and employees so the industry stays viable for when we can finally return to work. I highly doubt anything like this would ever happen though as the costs associated seem like they would be massive. Someone who is smarter then me could calculate what costs more in respects to the spaces staying open versus what it would cost the health care system. And obviously I don’t think any amount of money is worth a life but I don’t know how to solve this issue. 
 

 

Canadian healthcare system, like the UK, is funded out of taxation. If the government is not collecting taxes, eventually there will be no money for the healthcare system.

 

There is a limit to how long they can keep borrowing to fund the measures and that's the bottom line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

There is going to be a much worse depression, costing more additional lives than covid (including the current depression), if bars and nightclubs can't open?

Yeah. If we shut down everything because of covid for the rest of the year it will cripple everything.

 

USA has shown it's not willing to support the people in times of crisis. The rich will be fine. The majority will be fucked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, cax16 said:

 

 

snip

 

That's awesome there is so much support there. Hope it stays that way!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

exactly. We have to keep in mind that there is no "perfect" solution to this crisis. It's like a natural catastrophe, only at least one magnitude bigger. There simply is NO WAY we can go through this unscathed. The challenge iss all about keeping the damage as low as possible.

That being said, yep, the US seem to do pretty bad in this challenge ... really embarassing for the world's strongest economic force.

I agree. Many present shut it all down as the perfect solution. It's one with disastrous effects, same as bars staying open with indoor dining.

 

Outdoor dining all seems reasonable. Bars are brutal, options suck but man they are huge spreaders.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The relationship between economic hardship and death is quite complex.

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/recessions-dont-lead-to-an-overall-increase-in-deaths/

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0

 

As death from some issues rise, deaths from others fall. 

 

I'd agree with those that say just shutting down is largely a bad thing. That is basically a hammer you use when you have nothing else in your toolbox - or its gotten so bad no other tool will work. i think they were necessary in the Spring, now at worst you may have a few areas that need to go back to that type of mitigation meaure, but in general what you have to be willing to do is pause and potentially go more restrictive in an area where things are popping. 

 

As others have said, there will be no perfect options and there will be tradeoffs involved in any decision. 

 

At the end of the day you need a plan and you need metrics that you can follow and use both a gating criteria that allows you to open more of the economy up, and also as tripwires to pull back if it appears spread is going the wrong way. Unfortunately for the US there has been little appetite, other than a couple of the states in the NE, to employ that type of process. We are in danger of creating a bifurcation of the economy in the US where some states are able to get their economies going stronger due to have good metrics in place while others end up stuck in an endless cycle of reduced economic activity due to not understanding the need for that process and so they open up, have an outbreak and have to pull back again.

 

It feels very tortoise and the hare where the tortoise is likely to win in the end. 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pause and go backward or threaten to at least. Mandatory masks everywhere inside and in public gatherings bigger than 5 seems reasonable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Australia and New Zealand they are in a position for complete eradication if they so wished.

 

It may be the cheapest option in their case, but it means closed borders for the foreseeable future.

 

In other news "How bad will winter Covid really be?"

 

Nothing new, but interesting read...

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-53515077?__twitter_impression=true

 

Edited by AndyK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"This is the sixth time a global health emergency has been declared under the International Health Regulations, but it is easily the most severe".

Quote

 

 

 

Edited by MrGlass2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.