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Portugal has reported no new coronavirus deaths for the first time since March, when a lockdown was put in place, and the lowest number of new infections in almost three months.

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The figures, reported on Monday, showed that the country’s total confirmed cases rose by 106 from Sunday to 51,568, with 62% of new infections reported in and around Lisbon.

 

Meanwhile, Portugal’s death toll remained unchanged at 1,738.

 

“It has been very difficult in recent times - we are very happy this happened,” the secretary of state for health, Antonio Sales, said as he teared up during a news conference. “I want to leave this message of hope to the Portuguese but I want to ask them to help us maintain these numbers.”

 

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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

It has always been more important that anyone working in the Executive Branch parrots whatever the President says than to be accurate. That hasn't changed in the entire time he has been President, or quite frankly, the entire time he has been alive and run a business.

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Based on how it's handled the pandemic, the USA does not deserve to be a self-governing nation anymore. Get rid of every political authority and become a colony of a civilized place.

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2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Based on how it's handled the pandemic, the USA does not deserve to be a self-governing nation anymore. Get rid of every political authority and become a colony of a civilized place.

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26 minutes ago, juni78ukr said:

Tests: 2.5% of Italians had COVID-19, far more in the north. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/tests-2-5-italians-had-192019695.html

 

 

That is surprising low that would be an almost 2.5% death rate in that country if the 35K is accurate.

 

Like the article said:

Numerous countries have also conducted tests to try to determine how many people may have been infected with the virus, including Austria, Germany, Spain, France, and the U.K. Most countries have found prevalence levels of about 5% to 15%.

 

The test was maybe not fully random too:

 

The tests were originally supposed to be conducted on some 150,000 Italians in 2,000 cities and towns nationwide. However, the Red Cross ran into resistance from some Italians who declined to participate since a positive test for antibodies required an automatic quarantine and test to see if they still had the virus.

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46 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That is surprising low that would be an almost 2.5% death rate in that country if the 35K is accurate.

 

Like the article said:

Numerous countries have also conducted tests to try to determine how many people may have been infected with the virus, including Austria, Germany, Spain, France, and the U.K. Most countries have found prevalence levels of about 5% to 15%.

 

The test was maybe not fully random too:

 

The tests were originally supposed to be conducted on some 150,000 Italians in 2,000 cities and towns nationwide. However, the Red Cross ran into resistance from some Italians who declined to participate since a positive test for antibodies required an automatic quarantine and test to see if they still had the virus.

Not sure how useful antibody tests are for C19 as its been shown that many mild/asymptomatic cases have not created measurable antibodies yet do produce plenty of T-Cell specific cells.

 

They did random C19 T-Cell tests on blood donors and found 30% had them.

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5 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

 

I suppose all things being equal, the IFR is going to be the same everywhere in the world, so technically he's right. The way to compare how well countries have done is the # of deaths per population.

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9 minutes ago, AndyK said:

They did random C19 T-Cell tests on blood donors and found 30% had them.

In a specific city or Italy wide ?

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55 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That is surprising low that would be an almost 2.5% death rate in that country if the 35K is accurate.

 

Like the article said:

Numerous countries have also conducted tests to try to determine how many people may have been infected with the virus, including Austria, Germany, Spain, France, and the U.K. Most countries have found prevalence levels of about 5% to 15%.

 

Maybe the thing is that Italy closed movement really early. So thanks to that they have extremely low numbers in many regions, especially in islands. 

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6 minutes ago, AndyK said:

I suppose all things being equal, the IFR is going to be the same everywhere in the world, so technically he's right. The way to compare how well countries have done is the # of deaths per population.

Who is right ?

 

I am not sure about the premise, country that were hit first (italy/spain/iran) could have even adjusted for the population getting infected (age, pre-condition) and the strength of the "strain" have a worst than country that have a lot of them later in the game, let alone among of resource in general and the presence or absence of healthcare system getting overcrowded.

 

At least in is presentation, flattening of the curve was reducing IFR (for 2 factor better health focus by patient and more patient later in the pandemy when what to do with it is more understood), would probably need to compare country a bit by when they got most of their case as well when talking IFR.

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3 minutes ago, juni78ukr said:

Maybe the thing is that Italy closed movement really early. So thanks to that they have extremely low numbers in many regions, especially in islands. 

That what they seem to point at, that Sicile and other place with almost no case reduce Italy average case load, but that would be a low number of case for the numbers of death (but again, very early, it did hit hospital/elderly and so on, maybe a strain that hit a bit harder, it is possible, but it sound low)

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17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Who is right ?

 

I am not sure about the premise, country that were hit first (italy/spain/iran) could have even adjusted for the population getting infected (age, pre-condition) and the strength of the "strain" have a worst than country that have a lot of them later in the game, let alone among of resource in general and the presence or absence of healthcare system getting overcrowded.

 

At least in is presentation, flattening of the curve was reducing IFR (for 2 factor better health focus by patient and more patient later in the pandemy when what to do with it is more understood), would probably need to compare country a bit by when they got most of their case as well when talking IFR.

To be honest, I'm not sure whos saying what in that interview.

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Seroprevalence studies done in April/May were probably quite accurate generally speaking, they showed that the tests correctly identified PCR-positive individuals >90% of the time.

PCR-positive individuals testing negative on antibody tests tends to be an issue >2 months after infection.

That might be part of the problem for this Italian study, but I don't think it's the entire issue. Individuals testing negative after a few months seem to be around 30% or less, and I think the Italian study is underestimating prevalence by about 50%, based on the IFR and the fact that the Lombardy subsample was only at 7.5%. Previous studies in Lombardy measured seroprevalence around 13-15%.

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