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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Excellent blog post on testing issues in the US.

 

https://covidtracking.com/blog/the-last-thing-we-need-is-fewer-tests-this-week-in-covid-19-data-aug-6

 

Last week cases dropped 10.4%, testing dropped 9.1%. There are multiple states having reporting issues with testing right now including CA who may have been underreporting positive tests for the last 3 weeks. The COVID Tracking project believes that as more students return to schools and colleges, eventually we will see cases start to rise again. Might not be for some time, but they expect ultimately like the spring it will happen. Also, more Americans have died from COVID in the first 5 days of August than the entire month of March.

 

Also, Georgia had its youngest death to date - a 7 yr old with no known chronic conditions.

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/georgia-child-7-dies-of-coronavirus-as-states-death-toll-surpasses-4000/FOXXZOKK2RE5LOQVRYTUDZE6W4/

 

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A quick vaccine overnight seems to be the new Trump Grift on the Covid Virus,

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My buddy, who’s in the bubble, has been texting me stuff about the players and some of the shit that some of them are doing in there. Let’s just say, they wouldn’t want it getting out lol! 

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On 7/25/2020 at 1:02 PM, Fullbuster said:

 

Given deaths only occur several weeks after infection I suppose it's not gonna stop there....Will the US go back to their previous average of 2,000-2,500 death a day? Or maybe go beyond 3,000?

 

 

 

On 7/25/2020 at 5:04 PM, RamblinRed said:

I hope not and right now the models don't predict it.

The models that give longer range projections have the 7 day avg death rate topping out around 1,050-1,100 by mid-August (that avg right now is just under 900) and then a long slow decline with the death rate not getting below where it was in early June until early October. The upper confidence interval is around 1,700 though, so it could get really bad. 

 

The 2 longest range models are estimating about 220,000 deaths by Nov 1 (which is so sad and depressing). US was approaching 100,000 deaths on Memorial Day and we are going to be at 150,000 by July 31/Aug 1 and then likely over 200,000 by November.  

 

Right now it looks like AZ and FL may have peaked - but that could also be due to testing as the number of test have dropped in the last week. Texas looks to be approaching peak, CA is still rising and there are plenty of other states that are still increasing in cases. If you think about the progression from infections, to testing, to hospitalization to death to reporting of that death - that can take a month. Hospitalizations will likely peak a couple weeks after cases peak and deaths could peak 3-4 weeks after a positive test. So once you get past peak on cases your hospitalizations and deaths will likely continue to increase for another 2-3 weeks. 

 

On 7/25/2020 at 5:10 PM, cdsacken said:

I don't see it happening. Maybe 1500 we'll see in a week then the numbers may start falling again. Still just sad how bad we bungled this.

 

 

Quote

 

US Records Over 2,000 COVID-19 Deaths In A Day After Three Months: Report

The last time the US recorded more than 2,000 deaths in 24 hours was on May 7.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-records-over-2-000-covid-19-deaths-in-a-day-after-th

ree-months-report-2275549

 

 

Well....

 

45e8423b2bcb4a498a775f1bf2041874.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

 

 

 

 

Well....

 

45e8423b2bcb4a498a775f1bf2041874.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 2000 in 24 hours is basically an accounting trick with time of day. E.g. if on Wednesday they report a lot at 1PM, Thu report a lot of the day by 11AM, the a substantial fraction of the 2-day total is in that 24 hour window.       
 

We haven’t had a single day over 2000 from any source of data with a real daily reporting window (worldometers or covid19tracking, for instance). I wouldn’t be surprised if we do have a couple days where it happens, but the 7-day average isn’t going to get close so those comments you quoted were correct.

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Really hard to understand obsession with opening schools.  Total madness during the pandemy. And the whole thing that parents cant go to work without kids in school. Most of the families here are multigenerational with grandparents to watch for small kids.  Also generally if you are old enough to go to school you are old enough to stay at home alone for several hours.  And older siblings always care for younger.

 

I remember watching Adventures in Babysitting.  It was cool and funny but they are having a babysitter for one evening wood with a 13 or 14 years old kid. Absolutely insane. So many hollywood movies with babysitter required for early teens and preteens. Once again no one would understand it here. Such kids are usually old enough to behave responsibly, make yourself something to eat or even go to a walk with friends. 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, juni78ukr said:

Really hard to understand obsession with opening schools.  Total madness during the pandemy. And the whole thing that parents cant go to work without kids in school. Most of the families here are multigenerational with grandparents to watch for small kids.  Also generally if you are old enough to go to school you are old enough to stay at home alone for several hours.  And older siblings always care for younger.

 

I remember watching Adventures in Babysitting.  It was cool and funny but they are having a babysitter for one evening wood with a 13 or 14 years old kid. Absolutely insane. So many hollywood movies with babysitter required for early teens and preteens. Once again no one would understand it here. Such kids are usually old enough to behave responsibly, make yourself something to eat or even go to a walk with friends. 

 

 

In the US, there is an overwhelming abundance of both dual-working parent families and single parent families, especially in major metro areas.  The "cliche 1950's" one parent stays home, one parent works families are the minority, especially in suburban and urban metros.

 

And in those same places, you tend to have smaller families and smaller housing footprints, so you don't tend to have "in home" family babysitting from older siblings or grandparents.

 

So, put those issues together, and keeping schools closed does put inordinate strains on those families...and thus, follow on strains on the community.

 

While public schools may have never been intended to be childcare, with the extension of days and hours, especially for the younger K-6 set, who truly don't need 6-8 hours of academics a day, it has become the prime provider of that function in the urban and suburban communities.  Take away that function, and you stress those whole communities, and probably come up with piecemeal answers to solve the childcare problem as bad or worse for the community in all ways as just opening the schools in a limited way would...

 

 

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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

In the US, there is an overwhelming abundance of both dual-working parent families and single parent families, especially in major metro areas.  The "cliche 1950's" one parent stays home, one parent works families are the minority, especially in suburban and urban metros.

 

And in those same places, you tend to have smaller families and smaller housing footprints, so you don't tend to have "in home" family babysitting from older siblings or grandparents.

 

So, put those issues together, and keeping schools closed does put inordinate strains on those families...and thus, follow on strains on the community.

 

While public schools may have never been intended to be childcare, with the extension of days and hours, especially for the younger K-6 set, who truly don't need 6-8 hours of academics a day, it has become the prime provider of that function in the urban and suburban communities.  Take away that function, and you stress those whole communities, and probably come up with piecemeal answers to solve the childcare problem as bad or worse for the community in all ways as just opening the schools in a limited way would...

 

 

The loss of education is much more important.

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This is a great article and animations on herd immunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-simulation-vaccine/?itid=lk_inline_manual_77

 

At the end it has a nice feature where you can put in a herd immunity percentage and a fatality rate and it will give you how many people have to die to reach herd immunity in the US. For example a 60% herd immunity threshold and a 1% fatality rate would mean 1.97M deaths.

 

it also has this great comment at the end by a biologist

“The epidemic doesn’t stop on a dime when you hit herd immunity,” said Carl Bergstrom, a biologist at the University of Washington who uses computer simulations to model populations’ vulnerability to disease.

“The herd immunity point is when you’re at the peak of the epidemic. So you’ve come up the curve," Bergstrom added. "But you still got to go all the way back down.”

 

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This study from one of the CDC's recent weekly MMWR reports is illuminating in understanding that while just like most diseases COVID is going to strike harder at the most vulnerable, - that doesn't mean it won't affect other age groups and healthy people as well.

 

What was interesting is that under 10 yr olds actually have higher rates of hospitalization, ICU and deaths than 10-19 yr olds - they just have fewer cases. So the key question to me becomes, is that because they are less likely to be infected, or because parents protect them more so they have fwer chances to be infected. That is an important question to find the answer to.

0-9 had a hospitalization rate of 4.1% (22.3% among those with underlying conditions). Death rate was 0.1% (0.6% with underlying health conditions)

10-19 was hospitalization of 2.5% (14.9%) and death rate 0.1% (0.8% underlying)

 

If you assume infections are 10X higher than case rates than one out of every 250 young kids infected end up being hospitalized (as opposed to 1 out of every 400 older kids)

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6924e2.htm?s_cid=mm6924e2_w#T2_down

 

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US ranks near the bottom in assessment of global pandemic response

From CNN's Jen Christensen

The US response to Covid-19 ranks near the bottom of the list of countries assessed by Foreign Policy Magazine.

The magazine’s Covid-19 Global Response Index puts the US among the six worst-performing countries in the world, alongside Turkey, Iran, Mexico and Indonesia.

China ranked last, in part, for its failure to report reliable test data, its minimal financial response, and its failure to communicate clearly and honestly with the public. 

But, the US got the lowest score for “fact-based communication.”

Foreign Policy described the US government as “relatively weak” in this category, as “it has engaged in misinformation as much as any country in the Index.” 

Best on the list is New Zealand with a perfect score. Senegal came in second.

How the scoring works: The index assesses 36 countries for pandemic performance based on its public health and financial response, along with how well the country’s leaders communicate using facts and science. The US came in at 31.

Countries that scored higher in the index generally have a lower death and case rate and a lower number of positive test results. Countries that reacted quickly and had a targeted response tended to have better outcomes, the index showed.

The magazine singles out President Trump specifically for “amplifying misinformation and conspiracy theories about the virus.”

It highlights his remarks during the July 4 celebration in which he claimed 99% of the cases are “harmless.”  

The US also got low marks for its lack of testing and for how little it has spent on emergency healthcare, compared to other countries.

The US’s financial response to the pandemic was just above the median. That score may not tell the whole story though, according to one of the authors of the index, Fouad Pervez. Just because the US has an unemployment system, doesn’t mean families can access that money, Pervez said. 

“Versus in a European country where they have the same policy, but the mechanism, it works, and people don’t lose their jobs or benefits, they just get less salary, but they get enough salary that they can put food on the table,” Pervez said. Pervez is the senior quantitative and policy analyst on the project.

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4 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Really hard to understand obsession with opening schools.  Total madness during the pandemy. And the whole thing that parents cant go to work without kids in school. Most of the families here are multigenerational with grandparents to watch for small kids.  Also generally if you are old enough to go to school you are old enough to stay at home alone for several hours.  And older siblings always care for younger.

 

I remember watching Adventures in Babysitting.  It was cool and funny but they are having a babysitter for one evening wood with a 13 or 14 years old kid. Absolutely insane. So many hollywood movies with babysitter required for early teens and preteens. Once again no one would understand it here. Such kids are usually old enough to behave responsibly, make yourself something to eat or even go to a walk with friends. 

 

 

It's insane to suggest it's not a big deal. Trump hates helping people and is frankly evil. States have no extra funds to subsidize care. Plenty of people will go bankrupt, lose their homes, commit suicide, be fired etc without the built in system of child care that school provides. How many people do you think have an extra $10000 per kid because schools can't open? 

 

I have to commit through June for this pod. We have committed 5 families and bunch of uncommitted, wishy washy indecisive families (rightfully so I get it).

 

I've seen several suggestions of let's just do remote till next September. Imagine how many will die directly as of that sort of policy.

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14 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

 

 

 

 

Well....

 

45e8423b2bcb4a498a775f1bf2041874.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

actually I nailed it :D 

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Excess deaths per CDC:

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

actually I nailed it :D 

 

You expected 1,500 at best, you got 2,060 yesterday.

 

So no.

 

I'd love to put a mocking gif but it'd be inappropriate given we're talking about people who died but just know the spirit is there :ph34r:

Let's hope I'm wrong though, nobody wants this to happen.

Edited by Fullbuster

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2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

You expected 1,500 at best, you got 2,060 yesterday.

 

So no.

 

I'd love to put a mocking gif but it'd be inappropriate given we're talking about people who died but just know the spirit is there :ph34r:

Let's hope I'm wrong though, nobody wants this to happen.

 

 

It wasn't 2060 this was already explained to you. I'd like to deal in reality not fake news, I got enough from the press conference guaranteeing preexisting health conditions by EO after Trump tried to dismantle that protection afforded by the ACA in the courts.

 

8/5 US officials reported 1,253 deaths.

Edited by cdsacken
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watching single days in statistics is crap; always look at the 7-day average.

https://covid19-projections.com/us has a pretty graph in that respect with the average clearly visible (the dashdotted line) - that has about doubled since the start of July but has now reached a plateau a bit above 1.000 deaths / day. Clearly not a good number but not as bad as, say, Mexico or Brazil, compared to the population.

 

And considering the US potential - financial, medical - yep, it really is doing exceedingly bad in this crisis. It's doing as bad as the UK and that's saying a lot.

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Oh let's be real is the United States wasn't a complete f****** our total death count would be maybe 20,000

 That's just how s***** we are.

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