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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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On 9/13/2020 at 7:20 PM, titanic2187 said:

Can somebody explain why France have such low death number despite they have seen thousands of cases in a day for one month.  

That is because deaths lag new cases by a few weeks. And since Macron is worse than DeSantis/Trump (he won't even close bars and restaurants), it is not going to get any better.

On 9/16/2020 at 9:04 AM, AndyK said:

The rest of Europe is now following the Swedish "model" so you must be thrilled. Just need a few months of mass contamination and deaths. And we will see how long the current situation in Sweden lasts.

 

Also:

Quote

 

 

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 I wouldn't put too much weigth on Swedish numbers ... their daily new cases and "serious" cases are extremely low compared to their neighbors, yet deaths / cap. are still higher. Doesn't really compute.

 

In the end, Covid19 mortality will be counted by statistic methods, just like the seasonal flu. And one thing that's exceptional about Sweden is that the weekly death numbers (overall) are higher than their weekly average from the last years, week by, week, since week #12 2020. Even if it's not much higher (meaning, statistically significant), it's still the only European country where weekly deaths don't fluctuate around the average but are consistently higher. In all other countries, even those with quite big overmortality figures like Spain, Italy or the UK, after the decline in numbers there have been weeks where there was an undermortality. Not so in Sweden.

 

My thoughts would be that either there is an unknown factor driving Swedish mortality up, or there is a known factor that gets underreported.

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On 9/19/2020 at 8:28 PM, MrGlass2 said:

That is because deaths lag new cases by a few weeks. And since Macron is worse than DeSantis/Trump (he won't even close bars and restaurants), it is not going to get any better.

The rest of Europe is now following the Swedish "model" so you must be thrilled. Just need a few months of mass contamination and deaths. And we will see how long the current situation in Sweden lasts.

 

Also:

 

150,00 people in Sweden with chronic Covid 19 symptoms when they have only had a total of 88,000 cases? 🤔

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6 hours ago, AndyK said:

150,00 people in Sweden with chronic Covid 19 symptoms when they have only had a total of 88,000 cases? 🤔

 

Official cases are always a vast understimate of the real amount of cases, which we will never really know. And asymptomatic cases can have serious long-term affects as well, thats been pretty well documented.

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35 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Official cases are always a vast understimate of the real amount of cases, which we will never really know. And asymptomatic cases can have serious long-term affects as well, thats been pretty well documented.

Not sure I buy the 150k either. Seems way too high 

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26 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Not sure I buy the 150k either. Seems way too high 

It's complete and utter bollocks.

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On 9/19/2020 at 10:18 PM, IndustriousAngel said:

 I wouldn't put too much weigth on Swedish numbers ... their daily new cases and "serious" cases are extremely low compared to their neighbors, yet deaths / cap. are still higher. Doesn't really compute.

 

In the end, Covid19 mortality will be counted by statistic methods, just like the seasonal flu. And one thing that's exceptional about Sweden is that the weekly death numbers (overall) are higher than their weekly average from the last years, week by, week, since week #12 2020. Even if it's not much higher (meaning, statistically significant), it's still the only European country where weekly deaths don't fluctuate around the average but are consistently higher. In all other countries, even those with quite big overmortality figures like Spain, Italy or the UK, after the decline in numbers there have been weeks where there was an undermortality. Not so in Sweden.

 

My thoughts would be that either there is an unknown factor driving Swedish mortality up, or there is a known factor that gets underreported.

Unless there is a massive surge in winter deaths, Swedens 2020 mortality figures are going to be right in line with previous years.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

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8 hours ago, AndyK said:

150,00 people in Sweden with chronic Covid 19 symptoms when they have only had a total of 88,000 cases? 🤔

88,000 found case is quite different than actual case (has I imagine you know), if there would have been really only 88K in Sweden that would be an IFR of 6.6%.

 

I would imagine that in reality there was around 100-200K case, now 150K people with 8 weeks of symptoms, the 150K numbers seem to be from this article:

https://www.expressen.se/debatt/stoppa-utforsakringarna-av-langtidssjuka-i-covid-19/

According to the opinion company Novus, around 150,000 Swedes have experienced covid-19-like symptoms for more than 10 weeks.

 

That seem to be about people making benefit claims saying they had covid-19 like symptoms, i.e. actual people with a cold would answer yes to that (without even considering lying here), it mean close to absolutely nothing.

Edited by Barnack
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On 9/19/2020 at 5:18 PM, IndustriousAngel said:

 I wouldn't put too much weigth on Swedish numbers ... their daily new cases and "serious" cases are extremely low compared to their neighbors, yet deaths / cap. are still higher. Doesn't really compute.

 

There average 7 days death has been around 1 or 2 for a while according to this:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

 

The average 7 days new case is around of a month ago is around 300, that seem in line with an usual 0.5% death rate (if you find 50% of the cases).

Edited by Barnack

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I believe even under that scenario 150k is too high.

 

Us has 34x their population with a worse healthcare situation and equally bad response.

 

That would put the use at 5 million with chronic covid complications. Way above actual numbers.

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15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I believe even under that scenario 150k is too high.

 

And that numbers is not a total it is what it was at that time I think, in May it was 350K:

 

https://novus.se/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/20200519engnovusnumberofsickandsocialdistancing.pdf

 

Being sick with COVID like symptoms include having sniffling, it is a study of how many people decide to work from home because they have (or say they have) any symptoms if I understand correctly.

 

It was never said to be covid complication, but covid symptoms

Edited by Barnack

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

And that numbers is not a total it is what it was at that time I think, in May it was 350K:

 

https://novus.se/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/20200519engnovusnumberofsickandsocialdistancing.pdf

 

Being sick with COVID like symptoms include having sniffling, it is a study of how many people decide to work from home because they have (or say they have) any symptoms if I understand correctly.

 

It was never said to be covid complication, but covid symptoms

For more than 10 weeks right?

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2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

For more than 10 weeks right?

English is a second language, but it feel like it is a strange Swedish traduction:

 

Although a large proportion of Swedes are sick for a strange time, 350,000 Swedes are sick now and have been there for over 10 weeks as presented in last Corona status, we still see that the majority are healthy and the proportion of sick decreases in Swede

 

Not sure what they exactly mean, but the vast majority of the sicks have lite sniffle has their symptoms.

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

English is a second language, but it feel like it is a strange Swedish traduction:

 

Although a large proportion of Swedes are sick for a strange time, 350,000 Swedes are sick now and have been there for over 10 weeks as presented in last Corona status, we still see that the majority are healthy and the proportion of sick decreases in Swede

 

Not sure what they exactly mean, but the vast majority of the sicks have lite sniffle has their symptoms.

 

In german surveillance, Rhinovirus is pretty much the only virus detected in people in the last couple of weeks and it is very active. Rhinovirus is your typical distributor of a common cold and light sniffle. 

 

And well, who, before Covid, would even look after having a runny nose from time to time. There are so many light allergies out there nobody would have a second look after. But we live in different times now. 

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6 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

In german surveillance, Rhinovirus is pretty much the only virus detected in people in the last couple of weeks and it is very active. Rhinovirus is your typical distributor of a common cold and light sniffle. 

 

And well, who, before Covid, would even look after having a runny nose from time to time. There are so many light allergies out there nobody would have a second look after. But we live in different times now. 

Main reason why a Second COvid wave is almost inevitable is with the coming cold season, the number of people with the cold and the flu will go up as usual, and the Covid virus will Hitchhike  on those normal maladies.

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1 hour ago, dudalb said:

Main reason why a Second COvid wave is almost inevitable is with the coming cold season, the number of people with the cold and the flu will go up as usual, and the Covid virus will Hitchhike  on those normal maladies.

That's the question. I don't think that's going to be the case anymore. I have the impression that people are way more sensitive now in this department. 

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6 hours ago, dudalb said:

Main reason why a Second COvid wave is almost inevitable is with the coming cold season, the number of people with the cold and the flu will go up as usual, and the Covid virus will Hitchhike  on those normal maladies.

it hasn't even hit America yet they're in for a rude awakening in October and November

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

it hasn't even hit America yet they're in for a rude awakening in October and November

Already hitting Utah. Huge spikes this past week, far and away record highs. Largely due to college and high school students socializing irresponsibly outside of school.

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21 hours ago, Poseidon said:

That's the question. I don't think that's going to be the case anymore. I have the impression that people are way more sensitive now in this department. 

In some countires but not the US where  there is enournous resistence to wearing Masks and a scary portion of the population thinks the Covid Virus is a Hoax or exaggerrated by the "Evil Liberal Media" because Dear Leader says so....

Your optimise about people's intelligence is  misplaced.

Edited by dudalb

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