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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Like to get @Jason's thoughts on this article when he gets a chance.  Does seem to ring plausible to my non-educated look at it though.

 

Focusing on k though... Well, not exactly a great omen for movie theaters. qnqGT0e.png

Yikes, this line especially...

 

Quote

“prolonged contact, poor ventilation, [a] highly infectious person, [and] crowding” as the key elements for a super-spreader event. Super-spreading can also occur indoors beyond the six-feet guideline, because SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing COVID-19, can travel through the air and accumulate, especially if ventilation is poor. Given that some people infect others before they show symptoms, or when they have very mild or even no symptoms, it’s not always possible to know if we are highly infectious ourselves.

 

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1 hour ago, longlive35mm said:

Yikes, this line especially...

 

 

Tempted to post this in the Movie theater reopening thread, where a great many people are saying that movie theaters can't spread the virus. A lot of ignorance and wishful thinking in that thread.

That covid has now been proven to be airborns chages the whole issue.

Edited by dudalb

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55 minutes ago, longlive35mm said:

Yikes, this line especially...

 

Evidence has been mounting for months regarding the aerosol/airborne transmission element of COVID-19. To the point to where even the CDC a few days ago was forced to admit it was a component.  

 

The thing the article really tries to crack is the notion of the super-spreader.  Both on the how and the why.  Limiting super-spreader events as much as possible might be one of the best tools we have after months of experience with COVID-19 and plenty of real world examples, positive and negative, to draw on.

 

I suppose the second best tool we have is: Don't let your guard down, society wide.  Not for a minute.  Otherwise, the 'rona is gonna sneak right back in until there are other treatment options.  As a certain group of people in Washington, DC are finding out right now.

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1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

https://twitter.com/ https://twitter.com/Med

 

 

What's happening in France is completely crazy: yesterday France was the 1st European nation to reach 20,000 cases in 1 day, today it got 26,896 cases (and that's with fewer tests than yesterday!).

 

We're not exactly sure what's going on though apart from the fact it's mostly young people infecting their families and other people they are in contact with.

 

It's mind-boggling as France managed the crisis pretty well compared to other nations but this time it sounds like too many people decided to be stupid, these numbers are extremely high for a country of that size.

iavenir/status/1315016288717156

 

Same as in the US;people get complacent, and try to get back to "normal" too fast.

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Just now, Porthos said:

 

Evidence has been mounting for months regarding the aerosol/airborne transmission element of COVID-19. To the point to where even the CDC a few days ago was forced to admit it was a component.  

 

The thing the article really tries to crack is the notion of the super-spreader.  Both on the how and the why.  Limiting super-spreader events as much as possible might be one of the best tools we have after months of experience with COVID-19 and plenty of real world examples, positive and negative, to draw on.

 

I suppose the second best tool we have is: Don't let your guard down, society wide.  Not for a minute.  Otherwise, the 'rona is gonna sneak right back in until there are other treatment options.  As a certain group of people in Washington, DC are finding out right now.

Which is why I find the attitude yo see in the Movie theater reopening thread so troubling.

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5 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Which is why I find the attitude yo see in the Movie theater reopening thread so troubling.

Keeping the crowd inside a movie theater down AND ensuring adequate ventilation would have to be done at a minimum.  And I have no idea if that is sufficient.

 

The ventilation component, along with air purification, is one things the article talks about, and it's also one of the things I'm not sure where the science currently stands in regards to viral load and transmission.

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Keeping the crowd inside a movie theater down AND ensuring adequate ventilation would have to be done at a minimum.  And I have no idea if that is sufficient.

 

The ventilation component, along with air purification, is one things the article talks about, and it's also one of the things I'm not sure where the science currently stands in regards to viral load and transmission.

Other problem is socila distincing and wearing of masks is easy to enforce in a restaurant;a lot harder in a theater. Yo know a lot of people will take off the masks as soon as the theater goes dark.

As I stated a lot of magical thinking and wilfull ignorance in the theater reopening thread.

BYW I think the major chains starting a fight with Governor Cumoi is a mistake.

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NSW has very good contact tracing.
 

Since the 1st of August there have been 505 confirmed cases from 1,325,914 tests for a positivity rate of 0.04%. 151 cases were international arrivals already in hotel quarantine. 
 

That leaves 354 cases acquired in the community. All but 22 cases were contact traced to a known source or outbreak. Through this whole period movie theatres have all been open at 50% capacity. There hasn’t been a single case or health alert linked to a movie theatre. 
 

These are the current NSW Health alerts. 
 

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/case-locations-and-alerts.aspx#self-isolate

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15 hours ago, Porthos said:

The ventilation component, along with air purification

I've mentioned this much earlier in this thread - having participated in the planning and construction of a few multiplexes, I know how the ventilation works (or is supposed to work). And purification should not come into play except as a last resort; the safe way to go is to take 100% outdoor air for your ventilation. All state-of-the-art ventilation/AC systems let you choose how much ambient air you use and how much you recirculate. Add to that that in most theaters, the air gets blown in below the seats and sucked off via the ceiling, which makes for a nearly vertical airstrem, and a movie theater should in fact be quite a safe room (provided, as mentioned, the 100% ambient air, plus maybe a stronger-than-usual airstream)

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Wash Post on Thanksgiving in Canada.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/canada-thanksgiving-coronavirus-trudeau/2020/10/09/59fc6c46-04d8-11eb-8879-7663b816bfa5_story.html

 

As a second wave of the coronavirus prompts new restrictions in several provinces, authorities across the country are urging Canadians to curtail their holiday plans. Some suggest celebrating only with others who are already living under the same roof. Others advise moving the party outdoors or online.

 

In a rare nationally televised address last month, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it might be necessary to cancel Thanksgiving to “have a shot at Christmas.”

Whether Canadians obey those pleas remains to be seen. Forty percent of Canadians surveyed by the Montreal polling firm Leger this month said they haven’t or won’t change their Thanksgiving plans because of the pandemic.

Canada’s experience Monday might offer a preview of what Americans can expect next month — and a warning about what to avoid.

 

Christian Dubé, the provincial health minister, said there’s more community transmission in more parts of the province than there was in the spring, when many outbreaks occurred in long-term care homes and cases were largely concentrated in Montreal.

In Ontario, testing centers are so overwhelmed that officials have tightened the criteria for who can get a test. A backlog of tens of thousands of samples has left officials flying blind on the source of infections and the scope of the problem. Toronto, Canada’s largest city, has scaled back contact tracing.

 

Infectious-diseases specialists say the response has been hampered by muddled messaging.

 

“There’s been a failure to recognize the inconsistent messaging . . . and an almost delusion that if you implore people to behave differently, then they will behave differently,” he said. “In almost every jurisdiction that hasn’t occurred, and we’ve failed to learn from other jurisdictions.”

 

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13 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Wash Post on Thanksgiving in Canada.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/canada-thanksgiving-coronavirus-trudeau/2020/10/09/59fc6c46-04d8-11eb-8879-7663b816bfa5_story.html

 

As a second wave of the coronavirus prompts new restrictions in several provinces, authorities across the country are urging Canadians to curtail their holiday plans. Some suggest celebrating only with others who are already living under the same roof. Others advise moving the party outdoors or online.

 

In a rare nationally televised address last month, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said it might be necessary to cancel Thanksgiving to “have a shot at Christmas.”

Whether Canadians obey those pleas remains to be seen. Forty percent of Canadians surveyed by the Montreal polling firm Leger this month said they haven’t or won’t change their Thanksgiving plans because of the pandemic.

Canada’s experience Monday might offer a preview of what Americans can expect next month — and a warning about what to avoid.

 

Christian Dubé, the provincial health minister, said there’s more community transmission in more parts of the province than there was in the spring, when many outbreaks occurred in long-term care homes and cases were largely concentrated in Montreal.

In Ontario, testing centers are so overwhelmed that officials have tightened the criteria for who can get a test. A backlog of tens of thousands of samples has left officials flying blind on the source of infections and the scope of the problem. Toronto, Canada’s largest city, has scaled back contact tracing.

 

Infectious-diseases specialists say the response has been hampered by muddled messaging.

 

“There’s been a failure to recognize the inconsistent messaging . . . and an almost delusion that if you implore people to behave differently, then they will behave differently,” he said. “In almost every jurisdiction that hasn’t occurred, and we’ve failed to learn from other jurisdictions.”

 

We have Donald Trump of the North as our Premier in Ontario. His response was ok at the start of the pandemic but once we opened things back up it was game over.
 

Rolling things back in certain parts of Ontario won’t do much when those parts just border other regions that those people can go to. Like for example I live North of Toronto, and basically all you have to do is walk across one street to get from Toronto to my “region”, bad decision making has cost people their lives.

 

I’m hoping for the best but expecting the worst. 

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In India, daily cases have reduced from 98k to 67k in 20 days. Active cases came down from 1.017mn to 0.86mn. I think by December we may be done from this here.

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Seems like every western country still doing the same mistake. Implore, ask, plea, encourage, recoomend didnt work. Too many people wouldnt even listen. You have to order, punish and enforce. China did exactly that and now live more or less normal life.

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Every month that passes China’s response looks better and better.   
 

Lot of smaller Asian democracies did even better than that though. 

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11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In India, daily cases have reduced from 98k to 67k in 20 days. Active cases came down from 1.017mn to 0.86mn. I think by December we may be done from this here.

 

Yes, but Indias official cases are very probably only a very small fraction of the actual numbers. When the Virus is able to come back larger than ever in countrys like Iceland or Poland (where cases very few even back in March/April) than i see no way whatsoever that the virus will be out of India by December. When you have over 7 Million offical cases and its known that testing in India is extremely limited, than its clear the virus is all over the country and impossible to eradicate without a vaccine.

 

5 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Seems like every western country still doing the same mistake. Implore, ask, plea, encourage, recoomend didnt work. Too many people wouldnt even listen. You have to order, punish and enforce. China did exactly that and now live more or less normal life.

 

I agree. The main "problem" so to speak is just that western countrys just have a totally different culture than asian countrys where personal freedim is deemed more important for many than state regulations. In case of this pandemic, that has proven to be a weakness.

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12 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Seems like every western country still doing the same mistake. Implore, ask, plea, encourage, recoomend didnt work. Too many people wouldnt even listen. You have to order, punish and enforce. China did exactly that and now live more or less normal life.

real problem is lack of leadership. Political leaders are too focused on keepng the voters happy, trying to put a happy face on everything.rather then level with voters. DOnald Trump is an extreme example of this, but you get a milder version in many countrieis.

I don't mow if any leader today is capable of giving it to the people straight, make a Churchill style "I have nothing to offer but blood, sweat and tears" type speech.

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13 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Seems like every western country still doing the same mistake. Implore, ask, plea, encourage, recoomend didnt work. Too many people wouldnt even listen. You have to order, punish and enforce. China did exactly that and now live more or less normal life.

It's working pretty well in NSW.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Yes, but Indias official cases are very probably only a very small fraction of the actual numbers. When the Virus is able to come back larger than ever in countrys like Iceland or Poland (where cases very few even back in March/April) than i see no way whatsoever that the virus will be out of India by December. When you have over 7 Million offical cases and its known that testing in India is extremely limited, than its clear the virus is all over the country and impossible to eradicate without a vaccine

Yes Testing is an issue, but its not as bad as it was initially. The normal life has almost come back here.

 

We have lowest deaths per capita across many nations.

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