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DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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19 hours ago, DeeCee said:

It's working pretty well in NSW.

 

 

I don't think we need to go to a dictator in an authoritarian government to get covid under control.

In fact, I am disturbed by the number of people in this thread who seem to want some kind of dictaroship in order to control Covid. That would be a cure worse then the disease.

Edited by dudalb
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30 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I don't think we need to go to a dictator in an authoritarian government to get covid under control.

In fact, I am disturbed by the number of people in this thread who seem to want some kind of dictaroship in order to control Covid. That would be a cure worse then the disease.

 

I dont think those people meant that a dictatorship is necessary in this case or in any case period. Its just that some measures that for example China or Vietnam took were very effective against the virus.

 

However, similar measures were equally successfull in countrys like Taiwan, South Korea or Japan. Hardly dictatorships. The political system has nothing to do with the measures that are taken in a crisis like this its the societys will to accept those measures that is paramount. And i personally think the culture in many asian countrys is just vastly different towards following state rules than in the "West" and in this case way more successfull.

Edited by Brainbug
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3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I dont think those people meant that a dictatorship is necessary in this case or in any case period. Its just that some measures that for example China took were very effective against the virus.

 

However, similar measures were equally successfull in countrys like Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea or Japan. Hardly dictatorships. The political system has nothing to do with the measures that are taken in a crisis like this its the societys will to accept those measures that is paramount. And i personally think the culture in many asian countrys is just vastly different towards following state rules than in the "West" and in this case way more successfull.

Vietnam not a dictatorship? 

BS. It is about the same as China;a one party authorarian state with a Communist party in control. Granted, in both cases they are Communist In Name Only.but still dictatorships.

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16 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Vietnam not a dictatorship? 

BS. It is about the same as China;a one party authorarian state with a Communist party in control. Granted, in both cases they are Communist In Name Only.but still dictatorships.

 

For that i apologize. On the top of my head i just remembered the asian countrys that handled covid very well till now and Vietnam is one of those. The others apart from China are democracys though which i think is why i mixed it up.

 

I actually know Vietnam is an oppressive state that was just an honest mistake.

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23 hours ago, cannastop said:

 

😬

But...but....we are going to have a vaccine before the election. Dear Leader promised us that...

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Man all these famous people getting the virus. Soon it's going to be my turn to get it


I work an "essential" job after all


Where I face a lot of people without masks

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On 10/14/2020 at 6:39 AM, dudalb said:

I don't think we need to go to a dictator in an authoritarian government to get covid under control.

In fact, I am disturbed by the number of people in this thread who seem to want some kind of dictaroship in order to control Covid. That would be a cure worse then the disease.

What does that have to do with my post?

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The way it virtually disappeared here in summer and is now coming back with a vengeance as winter approaches pretty much confirms it's seasonality.

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11 minutes ago, AndyK said:

The way it virtually disappeared here in summer and is now coming back with a vengeance as winter approaches pretty much confirms it's seasonality.

I thought Europe really doesn't do air conditioning...so it may confirm that the virus thrives in old HV systems...and really hates open windows and fresh air:)...

 

It may not be seasonal as much as really adapted to spreading in enclosed old HVAC environments...

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On 10/10/2020 at 3:02 PM, Porthos said:

 

Like to get @Jason's thoughts on this article when he gets a chance.  Does seem to ring plausible to my non-educated look at it though.

 

Focusing on k though... Well, not exactly a great omen for movie theaters. qnqGT0e.png


It's a good article, one I had actually bookmarked already before you tagged me here. It's consistent with articles I've read elsewhere, and I've also previously seen some of the cited sources.

Undoubtedly, a huge part of Japan's success in controlling COVID-19 has been in nearly eliminating the superspreader events that are responsible for ~80% or more of the spread. So in theory, just by avoiding superspreader events you can keep R around or below 1. It's worth noting that Japan has neither had a lockdown (the state of emergency was voluntary and did not involve widespread business closure) nor does it have the thorough testing/tracing/isolation programs implemented by its East Asian neighbours.

There's a part of the article I want to draw attention to, especially with regard to movie theatres:
 

Quote

Cevik identifies “prolonged contact, poor ventilation, [a] highly infectious person, [and] crowding” as the key elements for a super-spreader event. Super-spreading can also occur indoors beyond the six-feet guideline, because SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing COVID-19, can travel through the air and accumulate, especially if ventilation is poor. Given that some people infect others before they show symptoms, or when they have very mild or even no symptoms, it’s not always possible to know if we are highly infectious ourselves. We don’t even know if there are more factors yet to be discovered that influence super-spreading. But we don’t need to know all the sufficient factors that go into a super-spreading event to avoid what seems to be a necessary condition most of the time: many people, especially in a poorly ventilated indoor setting, and especially not wearing masks.


Many people together is certainly a necessary condition for superspreading (by definition), and an indoor setting and not wearing masks are almost certainly necessary conditions as well. To my knowledge, there are no counterexamples - superspreader events that have occurred either outdoors, or indoors with full mask compliance. The lack of superspreader events in indoor environments with full mask compliance has actually been quite notable. A definition for "prolonged contact" is hard to pin down, but basically transmissions don't occur if you've had less that 10-15 minutes contact, and after that the longer the contact, the higher the risk of transmission.

"Many people indoors not wearing masks with prolonged contact" is may also be sufficient for a super-spreader event, but I strongly suspect another important factor is vocalization. Another common feature of the documented superspreader events is that they involve talking and/or singing. This isn't surprising; it's known that talking releases about ten times as many respiratory droplets compared to breathing.

Movie theatres certainly meet the conditions of "many people indoors with prolonged contact". In theory, they need not meet the condition of "not wearing masks", if a mask-wearing policy were enforced. Of course, concessions would need to be banned, and that combined with reduced capacity might mean theatres wouldn't be profitable.

There's definitely variation in expert opinion about how risky theatres are, which makes sense because you can reasonably give the aforementioned factors different weighting, and also make different assumptions about mask compliance, concessions, ventilation etc.

The ultimate authority in my view is empirical evidence, but of course the problem there is that we may not have any applicable evidence to review. Taiwan has effectively eliminated the virus, and SK, China, and Vietnam very nearly so. Japan hasn't eliminated the virus, but has an extraordinarily high degree of mask compliance, so the lack of superspreader events in movie theatres there may not mean anything for us.

Canada and other non-US Western countries had a period where movie attendance was decent (Tenet), but there isn't much in the way of publicly available data for contact tracing. The public health authorities here are telling us that half of traced cases are coming from bars and restaurants, but that's about it - they don't tell us which establishments, nor about the rest of traced cases. I do know that cinemas have been added to the list of businesses that are being closed back down in response to our cases rising, but I don't know if that's based on perceived risk or on probable transmissions we're not being told about.

I guess in conclusion what it comes down to is that even though movie theatres aren't a main driver of superspreader events - that'd be social gatherings, bars, and indoor dining - they're probably going to be a casualty of the insufficient number of citizens in (at least most) Western countries willing to commit to wearing masks indoors, and consequently to sacrifice indoor activites that conflict with mask wearing.

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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

I thought Europe really doesn't do air conditioning...so it may confirm that the virus thrives in old HV systems...and really hates open windows and fresh air:)...


To expand on this point, I think it's almost certainly not how the virus is effected by the weather that drives the apparent seasonality, but rather how the virus shapes human behaviour.

It's worth noting that the US actually had a big spike in transmission in the hottest part summer in the southeast where people tend to flee the heat by going indoors to air-conditioned environments. At that same time, in the northern US where people tend to go outside in the summer after hibernating in the winter, the virus waned.

Now that the weather is getting lousy in the north but it's nice and comfortable outside in the south, the pattern is reversing.

Anything that causes people to spend more time indoors and with less ventilation (closed windows etc.) is going to increase transmission, and vice versa.

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23 hours ago, cannastop said:

Man all these famous people getting the virus. Soon it's going to be my turn to get it


I work an "essential" job after all


Where I face a lot of people without masks

Welcome to "Herd Immunity".

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12 hours ago, DeeCee said:

What does that have to do with my post?

Because you said that your gregion in Oz got the virus under contorl without resorting to authoratairn measures.

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1 hour ago, dudalb said:

Because you said that your gregion in Oz got the virus under contorl without resorting to authoratairn measures.

It has for the last 4-5 months. I specifically said New South Wales. NSW had restrictions similar to most of the US back in March/April and since May has mostly been fairly open. Cafes, restaurants, pubs, gyms and movie theatres have been open with capacity restrictions of generally 1 person per 4sqm.  Schools have been open for months.  Thousands having been going to sporting events with 40,000 allowed to attend the NRL Grand Final next weekend. 
 

NSW has achieved this with the government encouraging people to wear masks and social distance. NSW Health has consistently high testing rates with excellent contact tracing. 
 

 

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20 hours ago, AndyK said:

The way it virtually disappeared here in summer and is now coming back with a vengeance as winter approaches pretty much confirms it's seasonality.

The experience of the US this summer would like to say hello.

It still doesn't appear to be seasonal. It appears to lessen if people take mitigating measures like wearing masks and keeping distance. If you don't do that it doesn't matter what season it is.

 

Parts of Europe flared up very quickly toward the end of summer once they relaxed restrictions and people stopped using mitigating measures.

 

Edited by RamblinRed

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47 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

The experience of the US this summer would like to say hello.

It still doesn't appear to be seasonal. It appears to lessen if people take mitigating measures like wearing masks and keeping distance. If you don't do that it doesn't matter what season it is.

 

Parts of Europe flared up very quickly toward the end of summer once they relaxed restrictions and people stopped using mitigating measures.

 

You're right that mitigating measures make a difference. That's been proven. There may also be a link between HVAC use and COVID spread, regardless of season, though. This virus doesn't appear to be as temperature sensitive as the one behind influenza, but it seemed to spread worse over the summer in areas where AC is heavily used.

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Good article on rising hospitalizations in the US

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/pandemic-states-virus-rebound-429753

 

Utah, WI, IN, MO, Dakotas, parts of TX, NM all seeing all-time highs in hospitalizations

 

Covid Tracking Projects weekly blog

https://covidtracking.com/blog/weekly-update-oct-15

 

Third wave is here. Looks different than the first 2. Much more spread out across the country with rising numbers just about everywhere. Worst places are some of the spots in the Midwest, Plains and Mountain states but seeing increases all over the country. 

 

Also, WHO said today that if Europe does't get things under control quickly its deaths could be 4-5X what they were in April by January.

 

One other note. FL continues to outpace all other states in terms of deaths. On a per capita basis only AL and SD are doing worse. It is also one of the worst states in terms of testing, just 1 per 1,000. Only MS is worse and most states are testing 2-4 times or more per capita.

 

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