Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

Recommended Posts

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-surges-culprit-emerges-pandemic-152612732.html

When the coronavirus began sweeping around the globe this spring, people from Seattle to Rome to London canceled weddings and vacations, cut off visits with grandparents and hunkered down in their homes for what they thought would be a brief but essential period of isolation.

 

That's the problem. As early as possible any government should have told people that this is really serious and this is for a very long time, They should have made transparent plans at least for a year with no false hopes. No normal life for a long time.  Plain and simple. And it wasn't really that hard. Masks, reasonable social distancing, hard travel control, maybe no holidays for many but so what? People are whining like this is the end of the world, Yes for many business it will be tough but any alternative is much worse. Probably would be much easier for bars or even cinemas close for a year and open with some government support. Closing and reopening do not work, just make things worse eventually.

 

For example all spring and summer you could have worked how to improve distance learning in schools and universities.  Instead of that everyone was focusing how to reopen schools. And now in many countries and regions they are closing again with abysmal distance learning instead.

 

But they were too scared to say unpopular things. They were too scared to impose strict lockdowns.  Authorities should have told that everyone need to were a mask for a year or two in spring or early summer. The same for many restrictions. Create restrictions for several weeks or even a couple of months and then lift them is not a solution.  Very soon you will lose everything gained and things will be even worse. And now Europe and America pay dearly for that. I see everywhere "people are tired, they want it to be over", But it will not.  So much time was wasted and now people are not even listening. China won big time because they were not afraid of harsh measures and tougn decisions. Some asian countris like Japan did reasonably well too. But we failed miserably.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-surges-culprit-emerges-pandemic-152612732.html

When the coronavirus began sweeping around the globe this spring, people from Seattle to Rome to London canceled weddings and vacations, cut off visits with grandparents and hunkered down in their homes for what they thought would be a brief but essential period of isolation.

 

That's the problem. As early as possible any government should have told people that this is really serious and this is for a very long time, They should have made transparent plans at least for a year with no false hopes. No normal life for a long time.  Plain and simple. And it wasn't really that hard. Masks, reasonable social distancing, hard travel control, maybe no holidays for many but so what? People are whining like this is the end of the world, Yes for many business it will be tough but any alternative is much worse. Probably would be much easier for bars or even cinemas close for a year and open with some government support. Closing and reopening do not work, just make things worse eventually.

 

For example all spring and summer you could have worked how to improve distance learning in schools and universities.  Instead of that everyone was focusing how to reopen schools. And now in many countries and regions they are closing again with abysmal distance learning instead.

 

But they were too scared to say unpopular things. They were too scared to impose strict lockdowns.  Authorities should have told that everyone need to were a mask for a year or two in spring or early summer. The same for many restrictions. Create restrictions for several weeks or even a couple of months and then lift them is not a solution.  Very soon you will lose everything gained and things will be even worse. And now Europe and America pay dearly for that. I see everywhere "people are tired, they want it to be over", But it will not.  So much time was wasted and now people are not even listening. China won big time because they were not afraid of harsh measures and tougn decisions. Some asian countris like Japan did reasonably well too. But we failed miserably.

Leonardo Dicaprio Point GIF by Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-surges-culprit-emerges-pandemic-152612732.html

When the coronavirus began sweeping around the globe this spring, people from Seattle to Rome to London canceled weddings and vacations, cut off visits with grandparents and hunkered down in their homes for what they thought would be a brief but essential period of isolation.

 

That's the problem. As early as possible any government should have told people that this is really serious and this is for a very long time, They should have made transparent plans at least for a year with no false hopes. No normal life for a long time.  Plain and simple. And it wasn't really that hard. Masks, reasonable social distancing, hard travel control, maybe no holidays for many but so what? People are whining like this is the end of the world, Yes for many business it will be tough but any alternative is much worse. Probably would be much easier for bars or even cinemas close for a year and open with some government support. Closing and reopening do not work, just make things worse eventually.

 

For example all spring and summer you could have worked how to improve distance learning in schools and universities.  Instead of that everyone was focusing how to reopen schools. And now in many countries and regions they are closing again with abysmal distance learning instead.

 

But they were too scared to say unpopular things. They were too scared to impose strict lockdowns.  Authorities should have told that everyone need to were a mask for a year or two in spring or early summer. The same for many restrictions. Create restrictions for several weeks or even a couple of months and then lift them is not a solution.  Very soon you will lose everything gained and things will be even worse. And now Europe and America pay dearly for that. I see everywhere "people are tired, they want it to be over", But it will not.  So much time was wasted and now people are not even listening. China won big time because they were not afraid of harsh measures and tougn decisions. Some asian countris like Japan did reasonably well too. But we failed miserably.

Hard to disagree with any of this.

Politicians hate to deliver bad news and most will turn themselves into pretzels to try to prevent having to be super negative.

 

The 1918 Flu Pandemic ran for 3 years. i suspect we will see something similar. Their mitigation measures were not much different then today.

 

In regards to the BBC article on the re-infection. They still seem pretty rare, but it does suggest that any vaccine is more likely to have to be a re-occurring vaccine -like the flu - rather than a one time event like MMR, Polio, etc. The key will be what will be the frequency and over time will newer vaccines arrive that will have higher efficacy and/or longer immunity than early vaccines.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a petty distressing thought from a Wash Post article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/19/coronavirus-spike-united-states-europe-reaction/

 

Nor does it seem that any society has achieved anything close to herd immunity. “One of the hopes in some quarters had been that herd immunity could provide some protection, with places hard-hit in the spring sheltered from the worst of any resurgence in the virus due to increased antibody levels,” noted the Financial Times. “Unfortunately, that has proved not to be the case so far, with many of the centers of the outbreak in the spring also suffering the worst in the autumn, both at the country and subnational region level.”

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

This is a petty distressing thought from a Wash Post article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/19/coronavirus-spike-united-states-europe-reaction/

 

Nor does it seem that any society has achieved anything close to herd immunity. “One of the hopes in some quarters had been that herd immunity could provide some protection, with places hard-hit in the spring sheltered from the worst of any resurgence in the virus due to increased antibody levels,” noted the Financial Times. “Unfortunately, that has proved not to be the case so far, with many of the centers of the outbreak in the spring also suffering the worst in the autumn, both at the country and subnational region level.”

 

It's likely Russian flu that killed 1 million was actually a Corona virus, OC43 which nowadays is one of the common cold Corona viruses. The appearance of other common cold coronaviruses line up with other pandemics.

 

Nowadays they just causes a few sniffles. That's herd immunity, not through antibodies, through  natural selection.

 

I don't think a vaccine is going to help.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trump just called Dr. Fauci and the medical experts "Idiots'.

It in the opoen now. Trump is leading a crusade against sceince and rational thinking.

If he is relected, expet the US death toll to up into the millions.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given current case numbers and hospitalisations it will probably be pretty bad on Election Day. 
 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UK vaccine challenge trials to start in Jan.

 

People will be deliberately infected.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54612293

 

...Belgium contemplating going back into full lockdown.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/video/20201020-coronavirus-pandemic-belgium-may-need-to-return-to-full-lockdown

Edited by AndyK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, AndyK said:

UK vaccine challenge trials to start in Jan.

 

People will be deliberately infected.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54612293

 

...Belgium contemplating going back into full lockdown.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/video/20201020-coronavirus-pandemic-belgium-may-need-to-return-to-full-lockdown

That is SOP In testing for vaccines, unless the virus has a high death rate like Ebola.

Medical research is like making sausage:You probably don't want to know the details.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The GOAT said:

The Countries Best Prepared To Deal With A Pandemic    

Where did it all go wrong? :whosad:

urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-201013-99-92

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/19/2020 at 2:02 AM, AndyK said:

Person reinfected second time and second time worse.

 

Doesn't bode well for vaccination hopes.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54512034


The bulk of evidence indicates that true re-infections are rare and that most people develop at least short-term immunity. I don't think news of these re-infections is inherently bad news for the effectiveness of a vaccine.

Of course, the short incubation time of the virus and moderate mutation rate are strongly suggestive that any vaccine won't offer permanent protection, but that was already known.

 

On 10/19/2020 at 1:58 PM, AndyK said:

Nowadays they just causes a few sniffles. That's herd immunity, not through antibodies, through  natural selection.


That's not actually herd immunity. Herd immunity is when chains of transmission come to a halt altogether because of a lack of susceptible individuals.

The mildness of modern OC43 is also almost certainly not a result of natural selection on humans.

 

It's much more likely because once transmission in human populations slows because of a large number of immune individuals, milder strains of the virus can propagate more effectively, and they outcompete more severe strains.

 

On 10/20/2020 at 5:03 PM, dudalb said:

That is SOP In testing for vaccines, unless the virus has a high death rate like Ebola.


Not quite SOP. It's more common to rely on natural infection, exceptions are mild diseases, ones for which there is an effective treatment, or when comparing a new vaccine to an older one known to be effective. I think COVID-19 is in a bit of a gray zone for the first two qualifications at this point. (Regardless, it's understandable why a human challenge trial is being pursued, and they're taking precautions and seeking informed consent etc.)

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my best friend's wife got a positive COVID test today. Today's her birthday :apocalypse:  :apocalypse:

  • Sad 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is Coronavirus so deadly?

 

 

Quote

Master of deception

In the early stages of an infection the virus is able to deceive the body.

Coronavirus can be running rampant in our lungs and airways and yet our immune system thinks everything is a-ok.

"This virus is brilliant, it allows you to have a viral factory in your nose and feel completely well," says Prof Paul Lehner from the University of Cambridge.

Our body's cells start releasing chemicals - called interferons - once they are being hijacked by a virus and this is a warning signal to the rest of the body and the immune system.

But the coronavirus has an "amazing capability" of switching off this chemical warning, Prof Lehner says, "it does it so well you don't even know you're ill".

He says when you look at infected cells in the laboratory you cannot tell they have been infected and yet tests show they are "screaming with virus" and this is just one of the "joker cards" the virus can play.

It behaves like a 'hit and run' killer

The amount of virus in our body begins to peak the day before we begin to get sick.

But it takes at least a week before Covid progresses to the point where people need hospital treatment.

"This is a really brilliant evolutionary tactic - you don't go to bed, you go out and have a good time," says Prof Lehner.

So the virus is like a dangerous driver fleeing the scene - the virus has moved on to the next victim long before we either recover or die.

In stark terms, "the virus doesn't care" if you die, says Prof Lehner, "this is a hit and run virus".

This is a massive contrast with the original Sars-coronavirus, back in 2002. It was most infectious days after people became ill, so they were easy to isolate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-54648684?__twitter_impression=true

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

America Poised to Enter its Worst Stretch Yet

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/23/covid-us-spike-cases/

 

The unprecedented geographic spread of the current surge makes it especially dangerous, with experts warning it could lead to dire shortages of medical staff and supplies. Already, hospitals are reporting shortfalls of basic drugs needed to treat covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

 

And it’s not simply a matter of increased testing identifying more cases. Covid-19 hospitalizations increased in 38 states over the past week and are rising so quickly that many facilities in the West and Midwest are already overwhelmed.

 

“One key way we got through previous waves was by moving health-care workers around. That’s just not possible when the virus is surging everywhere,” said Eleanor J. Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University.

 

The high case numbers of recent days have stoked concerns because the country has not even hit the stretch of holidays and cold weather, which experts have long warned will send cases soaring even higher. More interactions could mean more transmission during celebrations of Halloween, Christmas and the New Year. The winter’s cold, dry air will also help the virus stay stable longer, even as it drives people to hunker down together indoors.

 

Hospitals from Missouri to Idaho are starting to reach capacity. On Thursday, America had more than 40,000 current covid-19 hospitalizations — the first time that level has been reached since August. In the past three weeks, 34 states saw sizable increases in hospitalizations, and the number has more than doubled in Connecticut, Montana, New Mexico and Wyoming.

 

 

Experts said the problem facing many hospitals this winter won’t be finding enough beds. It will be ensuring that hospitals have sufficient specialized staffing.

 

“Creating beds is relatively easy, but what do you do when you outstrip ICU nurses, doctors and teams?” said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

 

 

In recent months, health-care workers have been able to lower mortality rates — the ratio of patients who die once infected. Much of that progress has come through hard-earned expertise by ICU staff — new approaches and knowledge about how to combat the virus, such as when to use ventilators, the adoption of treatments such as steroids and proning patients, which helps with breathing by shifting them onto their abdomens.

But the hard-won battle to lower mortality rates could be imperiled as hospitals are overwhelmed and staffing gets stretched, Osterholm said. And as the pandemic has seeped into rural swatches of the Midwest, skeleton staffs at smaller hospitals are shrinking further as doctors and nurses fall ill.

 

A report this week by Osterholm’s center showed shortages in 29 of the 40 basic but critical drugs often used for covid-19 patients. That includes antibiotics, sedatives like propofol that are used to calm patients during intubation and heart medication such as norepinephrine. And because of the widespread nature of the infections, hospitals are finding it harder to draw from excess supplies of such drugs elsewhere.

 

Even as hundreds of people are dying each day, “there’s this false sense of calm right now,” said Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “We have the president saying, ‘We’re rounding the corner.’ We have state leaders openly defying public health guidances.”

 

Inglesby pointed to plans and metrics many states laid out last spring for reopening. “That’s been completely disregarded in many places,” he said.

 

“It’s been framed as this false choice between full shutdowns and doing nothing, but that’s not the case,” said Inglesby, who urged people to wear masks and avoid large gatherings.

Politicians also need to stop minimizing the risk posed by the virus and start discussing openly with the public the hard decisions and trade-offs that lie ahead, Murray said. Is it, for example, worth keeping bars open if it means having to close schools?

“I worry sometimes about being too pessimistic,” she said. “We are not making predictions and saying this dark winter is somehow inevitable. We’re trying to warn people this is how it will be if we don’t do something about it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   1 member

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.