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AstraZeneca's Oxford coronavirus vaccine accurately follows its preprogrammed genetic instructions to successfully provoke a strong immune response, an analysis has found.

 

The vaccine “is doing everything we expected and that is only good news in our fight against the illness,” said David Matthews, an expert in virology from Bristol University, which led the research.

AstraZeneca, which is developing the vaccine alongside Oxford University researchers, is considered a frontrunner in the race to produce a vaccine against Covid-19.

 

The first data from late-stage large-scale clinical trials being conducted in several countries around the world, including Brazil, the United States and Britain, are expected to be released before the end of the year.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-study-astrazeneca-covid-b1255208.html

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On 10/20/2020 at 6:22 PM, Brainbug said:

urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-201013-99-92

 

As Rick Bright said last week. We game planned for all sorts of possibilities and outcomes. The one thing we didn't game plan for was that the President of the United States would not act in the best interests of the country.

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From what i'm reading, a vaccine will be ready very soon. The problem is that many people will not take it. Against my best judgment, i read the comments on a vaccine article on the Daily Mail. It's crazy how most of the over 4k comments are skeptical about the vaccine, most saying they won't take it. :stretcher:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8870023/Coronavirus-Oxford-vaccine-works-perfectly-safely-triggering-immune-response.html#comments

Edited by Maggie
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I don't think a vaccine is anywhere as close to widespread distribution as is being suggested.

Best case scenario right now is a limited supply ready for sometime this winter - most likely for healthcare workers and maybe some of the most vulnerable.

After that, it looks like Spring or Summer before there will be enough for widespread distribution. Read an article last week with comments from alot of vaccine experts that if we could have everyone vaccinated by next fall then that would be a huge accomplishment. 

 

Right now we don't have any real safety data on vaccines. That comes in phase III when you test in large numbers and those studies are underway now. Even the farthest along of the various vaccinnes (Pfizer) has the third week of November as the earliest it will have enough data to determine efficacy and safety. 

 

And once we get a vaccine we have to have a strong supply chain set up. The vaccines talked about right now mostly require 2 doses and have to be stored at an extremely low temperature (below -70 farhenheit) and there are only so many places that can store it and so many trucks that can transport it.

 

Also as you mention, how many people take it will have a major impact. If only 50% take the vaccine then it will be of limited value as not enough people will be innoculated. Unfortunately it has become tied up in the politics in the US at least and that is causing people to doubt whether vaccines will work. I fall into that group that won't run out to get it. If the scientists say it is safe and effective than I will get it, if a politician says its safe and effective i won't.

 

Frankly, wearing masks are likely to be a stronger way to combat COVID than a vaccine in the short term. Right now, the requirements are only that the vaccine is 50% effective. So if 100% of the people got the vaccine that would still mean 50% would actually be protected - and you won't know if you are in that 50%. Given that the likely percentage to get it is going to be a fair bit lower, I would expect that the vaccine may only be in the 30-35% effective territory overall - not nearly high enough to simulate 'herd immunity'. Meanwhile if we would all wear masks, we could almost get transmission to 0 since it is largely spread through the air.

 

 

 

 

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New MMWR from the CDC. I include it because it has really interesting info on excess deaths in the US.  While in raw numbers the majority of excess deaths have occurred in older people, in terms of the highest percentage increases in excess deaths have occurred in younger people. (ie. alot more older people die than younger people in a given year, so the base is much smaller in younger people)

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm#:~:text=conduct all analyses.-,From January 26%2C 2020%2C through October 3%2C 2020%2C,excess) (Figure 1).

 

What is already known about this topic?

As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported in the United States; however, this might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality.

What is added by this report?

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.

What are the implications for public health practice?

These results inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.

 

Although more excess deaths have occurred among older age groups, relative to past years, adults aged 25–44 years have experienced the largest average percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020. The age distribution of COVID-19 deaths shifted toward younger age groups from May through August (9); 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Maggie said:

From what i'm reading, a vaccine will be ready very soon. The problem is that many people will not take it. Against my best judgment, i read the comments on a vaccine article on the Daily Mail. It's crazy how most of the over 4k comments are skeptical about the vaccine, most saying they won't take it. :stretcher:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8870023/Coronavirus-Oxford-vaccine-works-perfectly-safely-triggering-immune-response.html#comments

Y

You need to read more. You should take anything you read in the Daily Fail with a ton of salt.

From all I have heard, a virus is months away.

 

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11 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Y

You need to read more. You should take anything you read in the Daily Fail with a ton of salt.

From all I have heard, a virus is months away.

 

I didn't read in the DM about the vaccine availability.

 

Here it says the first quarter of 2021 Pfizer will become available https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/10/23/2021-coronavirus-vaccine

Edited by Maggie

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So, yeah, this isn't great:

 

 

If you want to ignore everything else, I ask you only pay attention to the third graph here of seven-day averages:

 

ElDK_7ZVcAAGyKO?format=jpg&name=small

 

Hospitalizations are clearly rising once again.  And as should be expected the death rate is now showing signs of increasing.

 

Now there are more treatment options.  We know more about the disease.  All noted in advance.  

 

But the third wave in the US is starting.  Just have to hope that enough people take enough precautions that it isn't as bad as the summer wave or the spring one.

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1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

Seems like we may finally hit a Fauci right before eDay.

I can see 100k on Tuesday.

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In 1 day the US has now had 3 times  more cases then Australia has had in total since the beginning of the pandemic. 
 

“Rounding the corner.”

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Does Trump think it helps him. if we are in COVID crisis come election day, it affects poor more than rest and that will affect Democratic vote base? Otherwise this behavior is beyond ridiculous. Its not just trump. He is just symptom of bigger issue. Almost 40% of population seem to believe in living as if this does not exist !!!! That is a recipe for disaster. Next up I am expecting a push for not so effective vaccine early. I hope we vote him out decisively without question. Otherwise this country is headed for disaster. 

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Head of NIH says there may not be a vaccine authorized for EUA by end of the year.

 

While he remains "cautiously optimistic" that the United States could have a Covid-19 vaccine authorized by the end of the year, the National Institutes of Health's Dr. Francis Collins warned on Friday that "it might take longer."

"I’m cautiously optimistic that by the end of 2020, there will be at least one vaccine that has reached that stage of an emergency use authorization but I don't know that for sure — and it might not happen and it might take longer," Collins, director of the NIH, said while speaking to the National Press Club in a virtual event on Friday. 

Collins added that it remains "a good thing" the US has more than one vaccine candidate in development.

"It’s a good thing we have this menu of diverse scientific approaches," Collins said. "If you were betting the whole thing on one vaccine I'd be a lot more worried."

Additionally, a potential Covid-19 vaccine will need to have at least 50% effectiveness to be considered for approval by the US Food and Drug Administration, Collins said.

"FDA is not going to approve a vaccine that has less than 50% effectiveness," he added.

 

Fauci starting to lean towards thinking we need a mask mandate

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci said the country should probably mandate mask use, even if people complain about the trouble with enforcing it.

“If everyone agrees that this is something that's important, and they mandate it and everybody pulls together and say, you know, 'We're going to mandate it but let's just do it'. I think that would be a great idea to have everybody do it uniformly,” he said Friday on CNN. “I get the argument, say, ‘Well, if you mandate a mask, then you're going to have to enforce it and that'll create more of a problem.’ Well, if people are not wearing masks, then maybe we should be mandating it."

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This winter is going to be rough. All the more reason to vote for getting someone who will deliver at least something resembling leadership (instead of adding to the chaos) back in charge of this country again in 11 days.

Edited by filmlover

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2 hours ago, Porthos said:

So, yeah, this isn't great:

 

 

If you want to ignore everything else, I ask you only pay attention to the third graph here of seven-day averages:

 

ElDK_7ZVcAAGyKO?format=jpg&name=small

 

Hospitalizations are clearly rising once again.  And as should be expected the death rate is now showing signs of increasing.

 

Now there are more treatment options.  We know more about the disease.  All noted in advance.  

 

But the third wave in the US is starting.  Just have to hope that enough people take enough precautions that it isn't as bad as the summer wave or the spring one.

Hospitalizations have been rising for about 3 weeks and really took off this week. That is a bad sign considering we haven't even made it to Nov yet. 

And now we are seeing deaths start their typical increase 2-3 weeks after hospitalizations. 7 day avg deaths went up by almost 100 this week.

 

I'm concerned that the last chart is going to have a much higher spike than we saw during the summer. We're starting at a place where deaths were already 40% higher than when the last surge started and cases are about 75% higher.

 

As I linked in an earlier post, medical professionals are really worried because it is happening in so many places now that simply moving medical personnel from one area to another likely isn't going to be as available as the 1st two waves and if the personnel get stretched thin, then all the gains made in the last 6 months in treatments that lower the mortality rate can disappear if you don't have the personnel capable of providing the level of care necessary - not to mention if the theraputics are in short supply.

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56 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This winter is going to be rough. All the more reason to vote for getting someone who will deliver at least something resembling leadership (instead of adding to the chaos) back in charge of this country again in 11 days.

Not 11 days. My big fear is what happens between 11 days from now and 20 January. 

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2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does Trump think it helps him. if we are in COVID crisis come election day, it affects poor more than rest and that will affect Democratic vote base? Otherwise this behavior is beyond ridiculous. Its not just trump. He is just symptom of bigger issue. Almost 40% of population seem to believe in living as if this does not exist !!!! That is a recipe for disaster. Next up I am expecting a push for not so effective vaccine early. I hope we vote him out decisively without question. Otherwise this country is headed for disaster. 

We already have a COVID disaster. Trump being relected will make it a COVID catastrophe.

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43 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Not 11 days. My big fear is what happens between 11 days from now and 20 January. 

Biden and the Dems cannot do a thing until after Jan 20th if they win.

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

This winter is going to be rough. All the more reason to vote for getting someone who will deliver at least something resembling leadership (instead of adding to the chaos) back in charge of this country again in 11 days.


edit: point was already made by several others. :lol: 

Edited by Plain Old Tele

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57 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Not 11 days. My big fear is what happens between 11 days from now and 20 January. 

Oh same here. The fact we still have to put up with this idiot for another 2.5 months (especially when that period is looking to be especially bleak) even if he loses is enough make anyone feel deflated.

Edited by filmlover
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