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1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

After the surge in cases, it seems like the surge in deaths is also beginning in Europe :( 367 deaths today in the UK, 221 in Italy.

no real surprise there, we knew this was a probable development. Will be a bitter winter for much of the northern hemisphere.

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Some good articles (though not all good news) today

 

Canadian Thanksgiving could be a Cautionary Tale for US

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/27/thanksgiving-coronavirus-canada-united-states/

 

Trump is even out of touch with Republican Governors on Masks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/27/gop-governors-have-overwhelmingly-encouraged-masks-trump-still-resists-them/

Mandated masks

Strongly encouraged them

  • Alaska’s Mike Dunleavy: “Nothing is going to replace individual action and responsibility, including social distancing, wearing a mask around others, and washing your hands.”
  • Arizona’s Doug Ducey: Authorized localities to mandate mask usage, saying, “We have promoted mask use and common sense. Masks work.”
  • Georgia’s Brian Kemp: Went on a “wear a mask” tour of his state, but has fought against local mandates.
  • Idaho’s Brad Little: “The words ‘Take Care’ continue to ring true. Take care for your family, friends, the world, and yourself. Wear your face mask, keep a good social distance, wash your hands often, and stay home as much as possible.”
  • New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu: Repeatedly encouraged masks and required them for large gatherings.
  • North Dakota’s Doug Burgum: While resisting a mask mandate, has repeatedly pleaded for mask usage in moral and occasionally emotional terms, urging people not to make it a partisan issue.
  • Oklahoma’s Kevin Stitt: Resisted a mandate but repeatedly urged their usage. “Do the three W’s: wash your hands, watch your distance, and wear a mask.”
  • South Carolina’s Henry McMaster: Recently made his strongest plea yet for masks, telling people not to be “stupid.”
  • Tennessee’s Bill Lee: Has cast masks as a “choice,” but last week launched an ad campaign promoting them and is now encouraging mayors in hard-hit areas to mandate them.
  • Wyoming’s Mark Gordon: Has issued strong pleas for mask usage, saying in July, “If you’re dead-set on taking down Wyoming’s economy, don’t wear one of these. These are the things that are going to keep us open and they will keep us moving forward.”

Echoing Trump

  • Florida’s Ron DeSantis: While he has occasionally suggested mask usage, he has also spurned mandates and recently rescinded local penalties for noncompliance with mask mandates.
  • Iowa’s Kim Reynolds: Has urged people to wear masks while indoors without social distancing, but has echoed Trump’s argument that they may not be effective and has dismissed a statewide mask mandate as a “feel-good” action.
  • Missouri’s Mike Parson: Resisted a mask mandate and has declined to wear one in public. “You don’t need government to tell you to wear a dang mask,” he said in July. “If you want to wear a dang mask, wear a mask.” He tested positive for the virus last month.
  • Nebraska’s Pete Ricketts: Has threatened to sue and withhold federal funding from localities who require masks.
  • South Dakota’s Kristi L. Noem: Has echoed Trump in casting masks as a choice, while not forcefully encouraging them but also saying she’s not discouraging them. “If folks want to wear a mask, they are free to do so,” she tweeted last week. “Those who don’t want to wear a mask shouldn’t be shamed into it, and govt should not mandate it.”

I’ve written before about how Trump’s mask position was also at odds with many GOP senators, who back in late June seemed to make a concerted effort to steer this debate in a different direction. That clearly didn’t work with Trump, whose position is pretty much unchanged since then and whose fellow Republicans can’t seem to convince him of the wisdom of much of anything.

 

Trump is increasingly out on a limb on this, even when it comes to people in his own party. Some of them have held out for a while or have sought to talk about things in ways that seek to avoid alienating those who oppose mandates, but the vast majority of them have come around.

 

Study shows anti-bodies falling after 3 months

https://www.politico.eu/article/study-finds-sharp-fall-in-immunity-three-months-after-coronavirus-infection/

 

Finally, I hope to watch this over the weekend. Washington Post has a 3-part video documentary on the failed Coronavirus reponse in the US

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/administrations-pandemic-documentary/?itid=hp-top-table-high

 

 

Part 1: ‘Fair warning’

Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush never faced a pandemic, but both came to understand what a major global health crisis could mean for the United States, and each took steps to prepare. Through interviews with former high-ranking officials — including Kenneth Bernard, Tommy Thompson, Mike Leavitt and Frances Townsend — “Fair warning” documents Clinton’s creation of the Strategic National Stockpile in 1999, Bush’s response to outbreaks of SARS and avian flu, and the passage of the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act in 2006, which fast-tracked the production of future vaccines.

 

Part 2: ‘Guided by the science’

President Barack Obama put pandemic preparedness to the side upon taking office, focusing instead on an economy in free fall. But the 2009 outbreak of H1N1, the first flu pandemic in 40 years, made health security an urgent priority for his administration; later, it would confront the emergence of Ebola in West Africa. Through interviews with former top officials — including Dennis Carroll, Nicole Lurie, Ron Klain and Chris Kirchhoff — “Guided by the science” portrays a White House that quickly gained critical expertise and that left behind a pandemic playbook for the next administration to draw upon.

 

Part 3: ‘Playing it down’

Despite decades of warnings and preparation, President Trump has claimed that the novel coronavirus “came out of nowhere.” He downplayed the coronavirus as it began to take hold in the United States, disregarding the advice of experts and politicizing a health crisis. Through interviews with former Trump administration officials Mark Harvey and Olivia Troye, along with Washington Post reporters Dan Balz and Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Playing it down” explores why the White House was slow to respond to the pandemic, and the far-reaching consequences of its inaction. After months of mixed messages, contradictory policies, divisive rhetoric — and more than 225,000 deaths — the president continues to insist the virus will one day disappear.

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3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

After the surge in cases, it seems like the surge in deaths is also beginning in Europe :( 367 deaths today in the UK, 221 in Italy.

Should be noted that Tuesday numbers are always inflated as they play catchup from the weekend.

 

But its now up to 200+ per day average, doesn't look good, its only going to get worse in the next few weeks.

 

Hopes that new treatments would lower the death count look overoptimistic.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if the Oxford vaccine is run out early, there is a new NHS vaccine trial that has over 300,000 people signed up to.

 

EDIT: Damn @ those France numbers !

Edited by AndyK

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6 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

Some good articles (though not all good news) today

 

Canadian Thanksgiving could be a Cautionary Tale for US

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/27/thanksgiving-coronavirus-canada-united-states/

 

Trump is even out of touch with Republican Governors on Masks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/27/gop-governors-have-overwhelmingly-encouraged-masks-trump-still-resists-them/

Mandated masks

Strongly encouraged them

  • Alaska’s Mike Dunleavy: “Nothing is going to replace individual action and responsibility, including social distancing, wearing a mask around others, and washing your hands.”
  • Arizona’s Doug Ducey: Authorized localities to mandate mask usage, saying, “We have promoted mask use and common sense. Masks work.”
  • Georgia’s Brian Kemp: Went on a “wear a mask” tour of his state, but has fought against local mandates.
  • Idaho’s Brad Little: “The words ‘Take Care’ continue to ring true. Take care for your family, friends, the world, and yourself. Wear your face mask, keep a good social distance, wash your hands often, and stay home as much as possible.”
  • New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu: Repeatedly encouraged masks and required them for large gatherings.
  • North Dakota’s Doug Burgum: While resisting a mask mandate, has repeatedly pleaded for mask usage in moral and occasionally emotional terms, urging people not to make it a partisan issue.
  • Oklahoma’s Kevin Stitt: Resisted a mandate but repeatedly urged their usage. “Do the three W’s: wash your hands, watch your distance, and wear a mask.”
  • South Carolina’s Henry McMaster: Recently made his strongest plea yet for masks, telling people not to be “stupid.”
  • Tennessee’s Bill Lee: Has cast masks as a “choice,” but last week launched an ad campaign promoting them and is now encouraging mayors in hard-hit areas to mandate them.
  • Wyoming’s Mark Gordon: Has issued strong pleas for mask usage, saying in July, “If you’re dead-set on taking down Wyoming’s economy, don’t wear one of these. These are the things that are going to keep us open and they will keep us moving forward.”

Echoing Trump

  • Florida’s Ron DeSantis: While he has occasionally suggested mask usage, he has also spurned mandates and recently rescinded local penalties for noncompliance with mask mandates.
  • Iowa’s Kim Reynolds: Has urged people to wear masks while indoors without social distancing, but has echoed Trump’s argument that they may not be effective and has dismissed a statewide mask mandate as a “feel-good” action.
  • Missouri’s Mike Parson: Resisted a mask mandate and has declined to wear one in public. “You don’t need government to tell you to wear a dang mask,” he said in July. “If you want to wear a dang mask, wear a mask.” He tested positive for the virus last month.
  • Nebraska’s Pete Ricketts: Has threatened to sue and withhold federal funding from localities who require masks.
  • South Dakota’s Kristi L. Noem: Has echoed Trump in casting masks as a choice, while not forcefully encouraging them but also saying she’s not discouraging them. “If folks want to wear a mask, they are free to do so,” she tweeted last week. “Those who don’t want to wear a mask shouldn’t be shamed into it, and govt should not mandate it.”

I’ve written before about how Trump’s mask position was also at odds with many GOP senators, who back in late June seemed to make a concerted effort to steer this debate in a different direction. That clearly didn’t work with Trump, whose position is pretty much unchanged since then and whose fellow Republicans can’t seem to convince him of the wisdom of much of anything.

 

Trump is increasingly out on a limb on this, even when it comes to people in his own party. Some of them have held out for a while or have sought to talk about things in ways that seek to avoid alienating those who oppose mandates, but the vast majority of them have come around.

 

Study shows anti-bodies falling after 3 months

https://www.politico.eu/article/study-finds-sharp-fall-in-immunity-three-months-after-coronavirus-infection/

 

Finally, I hope to watch this over the weekend. Washington Post has a 3-part video documentary on the failed Coronavirus reponse in the US

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/administrations-pandemic-documentary/?itid=hp-top-table-high

 

 

Part 1: ‘Fair warning’

Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush never faced a pandemic, but both came to understand what a major global health crisis could mean for the United States, and each took steps to prepare. Through interviews with former high-ranking officials — including Kenneth Bernard, Tommy Thompson, Mike Leavitt and Frances Townsend — “Fair warning” documents Clinton’s creation of the Strategic National Stockpile in 1999, Bush’s response to outbreaks of SARS and avian flu, and the passage of the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act in 2006, which fast-tracked the production of future vaccines.

 

Part 2: ‘Guided by the science’

President Barack Obama put pandemic preparedness to the side upon taking office, focusing instead on an economy in free fall. But the 2009 outbreak of H1N1, the first flu pandemic in 40 years, made health security an urgent priority for his administration; later, it would confront the emergence of Ebola in West Africa. Through interviews with former top officials — including Dennis Carroll, Nicole Lurie, Ron Klain and Chris Kirchhoff — “Guided by the science” portrays a White House that quickly gained critical expertise and that left behind a pandemic playbook for the next administration to draw upon.

 

Part 3: ‘Playing it down’

Despite decades of warnings and preparation, President Trump has claimed that the novel coronavirus “came out of nowhere.” He downplayed the coronavirus as it began to take hold in the United States, disregarding the advice of experts and politicizing a health crisis. Through interviews with former Trump administration officials Mark Harvey and Olivia Troye, along with Washington Post reporters Dan Balz and Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Playing it down” explores why the White House was slow to respond to the pandemic, and the far-reaching consequences of its inaction. After months of mixed messages, contradictory policies, divisive rhetoric — and more than 225,000 deaths — the president continues to insist the virus will one day disappear.

If Trump is relected, COivd deaths in the US will easily reach the Million Mark.

 

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making a vaccine is hard. Pfizer does not know if its vaccine works yet. Likely won't see any vaccines on a large scale until well into 2021.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/27/vaccine-race-meets-harsh-reality-432964

 

The company’s failure to meet its self-imposed goal — having proof of efficacy in October — is the latest reminder that vaccine development is a long, complicated process that doesn’t stick to political deadlines.

 

“All [government and drugmaker] timelines assume that we have a vaccine that is actually shown to work and is safe before the end of the year,” says Peter Hotez, a virologist and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. “But we still have no guarantee.” Vaccines normally take years to produce, he adds.

 

“It’s a bit frustrating, but I think it would be unrealistic to expect that this is going to be widely available to older adults and people with high-risk conditions in early ‘21. That’s clearly not going to be the case,” said Edward Belongia, a director at the Marshfield Clinic Research Institute who has advised CDC on its vaccine committee.

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3 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

making a vaccine is hard. Pfizer does not know if its vaccine works yet. Likely won't see any vaccines on a large scale until well into 2021.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/27/vaccine-race-meets-harsh-reality-432964

 

The company’s failure to meet its self-imposed goal — having proof of efficacy in October — is the latest reminder that vaccine development is a long, complicated process that doesn’t stick to political deadlines.

 

“All [government and drugmaker] timelines assume that we have a vaccine that is actually shown to work and is safe before the end of the year,” says Peter Hotez, a virologist and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. “But we still have no guarantee.” Vaccines normally take years to produce, he adds.

 

“It’s a bit frustrating, but I think it would be unrealistic to expect that this is going to be widely available to older adults and people with high-risk conditions in early ‘21. That’s clearly not going to be the case,” said Edward Belongia, a director at the Marshfield Clinic Research Institute who has advised CDC on its vaccine committee.

Given what a vaccine does...gives you a mild version of the virus to enable you immune system....of course it's hard to make a virus. One miscalculation and the mild version could be a killer version.

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These interviews with Jared and Woodward if anything are worse than the ones between Trump and Woodward. (it also shows once again that Trump and his closest advisors if they were ever really serious about tackling the virus had given up by mid-April). Worth listening to the actual interviews. Posting due to the COVID content

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/woodward-kushner-coronavirus-doctors/index.html

 

There were three phases. There’s the panic phase, the pain phase and then the comeback phase. I do believe that last night symbolized kind of the beginning of the comeback phase. That doesn’t mean there’s not still a lot of pain and there won’t be pain for a while, but that basically was, we’ve now put out rules to get back to work. Trump’s now back in charge. It’s not the doctors. They’ve kind of – we have, like, a negotiated settlement.

 

"It was almost like Trump getting the country back from the doctors. Right?" Kushner told Woodward on April 18. "In the sense that what he now did was, you know, he's going to own the open-up."

 

 

"The states have to own the testing," Kushner said. "The federal government should not own the testing. And the federal government should not own kind of the rules. It's got to be up to the governors, because that's the way the federalist system works." 
"But the President also is very smart politically with the way he did that fight with the governors to basically say, no, no, no, no, I own the opening. Because again, the opening is going to be very popular. People want this country open. But if it opens in the wrong way, the question will be, did the governors follow the guidelines we set out or not?"
 
"So if you basically say this is coming back in the fall, don't gear up, then people won't rehire, people will stay unemployed," Kushner told Woodward. "And if you're planning for the worst-case scenario, that will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. One of the things that the President's great at is he's a cheerleader. He's trying to make people feel good about the outcome."
 
Jared's disdain for the Republican Party and Trump's hostile takeover
I learned this early on that neither party is really a party. They’re collections of tribes. Right? And so the Republican Party was a collection of a bunch of tribes. And then, you know, parties as they grow tend to be more about being exclusive than inclusive. And so, you know, you look at, like, the Republican Party platform, it’s a document meant to, like, piss people off basically. Because it’s done by activists.
 
"I say he basically did a full hostile takeover of the Republican Party," he said on April 18. "And I don't think it's even as much about the issues. I think it's about the attitude."
 
Overconfident idiots 
The most dangerous people around the president are over-confident idiots. Right? Because that has a way, sometimes, of getting past his defense mechanism because if you’re overconfident, then sometimes, you know, on a topic where he doesn’t have other people around to kind of validate it, then he can sometimes say, okay, let’s go with that. So that’s kind of – I think if you look at the evolution over time, we’ve gotten rid of a lot of the over-confident idiots, and now he’s got a lot more thoughtful people who kind of know their place and know what to do.
 

 

 

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20 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

These numbers aren’t good for the upcoming holiday season. 
 

 

If you were'nt expecting a bad Second Wave in the wintertiem, you have not been paying attention...

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2 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

These interviews with Jared and Woodward if anything are worse than the ones between Trump and Woodward. (it also shows once again that Trump and his closest advisors if they were ever really serious about tackling the virus had given up by mid-April). Worth listening to the actual interviews. Posting due to the COVID content

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/woodward-kushner-coronavirus-doctors/index.html

 

There were three phases. There’s the panic phase, the pain phase and then the comeback phase. I do believe that last night symbolized kind of the beginning of the comeback phase. That doesn’t mean there’s not still a lot of pain and there won’t be pain for a while, but that basically was, we’ve now put out rules to get back to work. Trump’s now back in charge. It’s not the doctors. They’ve kind of – we have, like, a negotiated settlement.

 

"It was almost like Trump getting the country back from the doctors. Right?" Kushner told Woodward on April 18. "In the sense that what he now did was, you know, he's going to own the open-up."

 

 

"The states have to own the testing," Kushner said. "The federal government should not own the testing. And the federal government should not own kind of the rules. It's got to be up to the governors, because that's the way the federalist system works." 
"But the President also is very smart politically with the way he did that fight with the governors to basically say, no, no, no, no, I own the opening. Because again, the opening is going to be very popular. People want this country open. But if it opens in the wrong way, the question will be, did the governors follow the guidelines we set out or not?"
 
"So if you basically say this is coming back in the fall, don't gear up, then people won't rehire, people will stay unemployed," Kushner told Woodward. "And if you're planning for the worst-case scenario, that will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. One of the things that the President's great at is he's a cheerleader. He's trying to make people feel good about the outcome."
 
Jared's disdain for the Republican Party and Trump's hostile takeover
I learned this early on that neither party is really a party. They’re collections of tribes. Right? And so the Republican Party was a collection of a bunch of tribes. And then, you know, parties as they grow tend to be more about being exclusive than inclusive. And so, you know, you look at, like, the Republican Party platform, it’s a document meant to, like, piss people off basically. Because it’s done by activists.
 
"I say he basically did a full hostile takeover of the Republican Party," he said on April 18. "And I don't think it's even as much about the issues. I think it's about the attitude."
 
Overconfident idiots 
The most dangerous people around the president are over-confident idiots. Right? Because that has a way, sometimes, of getting past his defense mechanism because if you’re overconfident, then sometimes, you know, on a topic where he doesn’t have other people around to kind of validate it, then he can sometimes say, okay, let’s go with that. So that’s kind of – I think if you look at the evolution over time, we’ve gotten rid of a lot of the over-confident idiots, and now he’s got a lot more thoughtful people who kind of know their place and know what to do.
 

 

 

Jared's scheming to use the  increased death rate from reopeingin for poliical advantage is just pure Evil.

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France on lockdown on Friday at midnight.

 

The President said this second wave will probably be deadlier than the 1st one.

I won't be here with you to comment it, I in tend to use this lockdown to improve my personal well-being through entertaining activities, that's my last comment here as I must protect my mental health from now on as numbers become horrible.

 

Wish you luck everyone, be safe during these last weeks of 2020.

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1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

France on lockdown on Friday at midnight.

 

The President said this second wave will probably be deadlier than the 1st one.

I won't be here with you to comment it, I in tend to use this lockdown to improve my personal well-being through entertaining activities, that's my last comment here as I must protect my mental health from now on as numbers become horrible.

 

Wish you luck everyone, be safe during these last weeks of 2020.

Stay safe dude and look after yourself.

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Europe now running at nearly 3 times the daily infections of USA.

 

Random tests show that new daily infections in UK are running at 5 times the official rate, 100,000 new cases per day.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962

Edited by AndyK

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Europe relaxed in summer even more than US. And tourism and vacations with millions of people moving around created huge problem eventually. Also school opened pretty much everywhere,

Edited by juni78ukr

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21 hours ago, AndyK said:

Europe now running at nearly 3 times the daily infections of USA.

 

Random tests show that new daily infections in UK are running at 5 times the official rate, 100,000 new cases per day.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962

It’s genuinely staggering just how badly the UK government has handled this. These hilariously ineffective “tiers” are clearly not working but BoJo and his mates seem content to sit at the nose of the Titanic while it sinks.

 

I saw a report earlier today on ITV News that London currently had an R rate of 2.8 (and rising) but is still somehow in tier 2? Utterly ludicrous, and it just shows where their priorities are: Money over health.

 

I can’t wait to vote these clowns out.

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5 hours ago, SnokesLegs said:

It’s genuinely staggering just how badly the UK government has handled this. These hilariously ineffective “tiers” are clearly not working but BoJo and his mates seem content to sit at the nose of the Titanic while it sinks.

 

I saw a report earlier today on ITV News that London currently had an R rate of 2.8 (and rising) but is still somehow in tier 2? Utterly ludicrous, and it just shows where their priorities are: Money over health.

 

I can’t wait to vote these clowns out.

In hindsight, the first lockdown was a mistake.

 

We were already over the peak and heading into summer when they locked down and spent 15+% GDP doing it.

 

Now we are at 100+% debt/GDP and nothing to show for it, right back where we started.

 

Sweden held their nerve and are sitting at 37% dept/GDP and have money in the bank for anything that hits them this winter. 

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So it's okay now measure thousands of dead people in % of GDP? How many dollars or pounds cost exactly a human life? Next step would be that it's okay to let old people die because they are useless for the national ecomomy. That's pretty much what Sweden did. 

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2 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

So it's okay now measure thousands of dead people in % of GDP? How many dollars or pounds cost exactly a human life? Next step would be that it's okay to let old people die because they are useless for the national ecomomy. That's pretty much what Sweden did. 

They locked down to late. It made no diffence and made a winter lockdown impossible.

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Actually for UK it was quite possible to contain or even to eliminate virus. Scotland nearly did it but it was impossible without borders and cooperation from other parts.  Yes, british lockdown was too tame and rather late but it rather did the job. 

 

But right now scientists say that nearly 80% of UK cases originate from spanish virus strain. Letting millions of people to go uncontrollably for holidays abroad was a huge mistake. All those air bridges were based on wishful thinking and hopes that half-measures somehow will work. Opening bars and pubs in one day without major restrictions didnt help either.  "Eating out to help out" was a pure madness.  The goverrnment always wanted to appease people and even more business instead of prepare for the worst.  In Jule Jonhson promised "normal life" for Christmas or even in November. But once again almost nothing was done to prepare for a different scenario. 

 

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