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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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14 hours ago, dudalb said:

Apparentlyl the new vaccine takes at least two shots to become effective,and at best we will have Ten to Fiftene Million doses in the first batch..not nearly enough.

Bottom line is even with a new vaccine we will have to have social distancing and other restrictions for months to come. TGhis is going to be a long.long, haul.

Real problem is a total lack of leadership it the US and a couple of other countires as well. Politicians think they have to happy talk and make people feel good all the time, rather then level with them and prepare them for sacrifices that will have to be made. We need a Winston Churchill ..someone who can give a "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat" type speech.

The US ordered the first 100 mil vaccine though, so I assume all 50 mil vaccines being produced this year will go to the US. That's 25 mil, which should get the most of the at-risk people and essential workers covered. Not enough to stop social distancing measures, but it should decrease the R0 and death rates.

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3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

The US ordered the first 100 mil vaccine though, so I assume all 50 mil vaccines being produced this year will go to the US. That's 25 mil, which should get the most of the at-risk people and essential workers covered. Not enough to stop social distancing measures, but it should decrease the R0 and death rates.

Agreed. Thing is, a lot of people on this website think that a week or so after the vaccine becomes available, it is going to be back to normal. it iwll take months after vaccine distribution begins for things to get back to normal.

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2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

The US ordered the first 100 mil vaccine though, so I assume all 50 mil vaccines being produced this year will go to the US. That's 25 mil, which should get the most of the at-risk people and essential workers covered. Not enough to stop social distancing measures, but it should decrease the R0 and death rates.

The HHS said that the contract is also for 20M doses per month. So that means 5 months to provide those 100M doses (50M people). Which is probably why they are saying April before the average Americans to be able to get any doses.

 

For the next 5 months - assuming the FDA finds no issues with the data once they receive it, we are talking about health care workers and the most severe getting it and even that is staggered. it will certainly help, but unfortnately it is hardly going to be a game changer in the short term. 

 

Realstically we have the next 5 months where we should be having as minimal activity as we can to save lives and then hopefully by Spring we can ease up.

 

Also, keep in mind that 50M people is only about 20% of the US adult population and less than 15% of the total population. 

 

One other issue we have right now is we have no knowledge yet of how long the immunity in the vaccine will last. Will it be 3 mths, 6 mths, a yr, 5 yr. No one knows.

 

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Just saw this on a newspaper message board:

 

Quote

I think that all this crisis will turn out to have been outrageously handeled with, everywhere. And the media have their big share of responsibility: everyday one dies more out of diabetes, asthma and cancer than of covid!! This is pitiful ...and our kids, deprived of school, are taken into hostage! Selfishness is not in the nosayers ' side but on those who are exerting a social pressure on the others for them to wear their masks anywhere, even where it is not required, in the middle of the woods or on a spacious playground ! These people are frightened, scared of anything, scared of living in the first place...the people with poor health condition are the one to restrict their way of life and to protect themselves properly !The sidebacks of the masks are not known yet, but we know they are harmful to exercising adults, and even more to children playing outdoors : they need to breathe mormally, their brain requires it!. How shameful to deny them this right and to have them breathe back their own CO2 and respiratory trash! Because they are convinced to act for their own safety, they claim these are society safety measures, but whose benefit is it outdoors, when social distancing are respected? To be a decent citizen means to be able to adjust one's precaution within the environment, in order to respect the others and not let them feel they are so unwelcomed, and so far, I ve seen so few people being able to act wisely. So yes, enough of this masquarade! The l

 

The level of ignorance in this  post is astounding.

I love the way the poster tries to prove the people encouraging wearing masks are the selfish ones.

Fact is, I think the poster does not care how many people die just so long as he or she does not have to wear a mask.

Ad note how she hits all the Trumpian talking points.

 

Edited by dudalb

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6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

The US ordered the first 100 mil vaccine though, so I assume all 50 mil vaccines being produced this year will go to the US. That's 25 mil, which should get the most of the at-risk people and essential workers covered. Not enough to stop social distancing measures, but it should decrease the R0 and death rates.

The Pfizer vaccine is likely to be pretty useless as very few places will have the capability to store and ship it at the required -75C and its 10 times the cost of the Oxford vaccine.

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Back on the Pfizer vaccine.

 

Couple of notes.

The CEO of Pfizer sold $5.6M worth of stock the day of the Press release for the vaccine.

 

Also, i'm not sure we know exactly about the distribution. It doesn't sound like based on this report that all the early doses are going to the US. I'm going to stick with what was reported yesterday by HHS Head Azar. US has a contract for 20M doses a month. That would mean 100M doses in the first 5 months (which probably not coincidentally brings you to a Apr/May timeframe). The article below says BioNTech expects to start providing doses to Europe by the end of 2020.

 

The European Union has formally authorized a fourth contract with US pharmaceutical firm Pfizer and German lab BioNTech to procure up to 300 million doses of their candidate coronavirus vaccine, should it be proven to be safe and effective against the virus. 

“In the wake of Monday's promising announcement by BioNTech and Pfizer on the prospects for their vaccine, I'm very happy to announce today's agreement ... to purchase 300 million doses,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in a statement on Wednesday.

According to BioNTech, the contract will guarantee the supply of 200 million doses, with an option to procure an additional 100 million doses. The pharmaceutical company says it expects deliveries to begin by the end of 2020, pending approval of the vaccine by the European Medical Agency. 

“As a company founded in the heart of Europe, we are looking forward to supplying millions of people upon regulatory approval,” BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin said in a company statement Wednesday. 

“Our aim is to develop a safe and effective vaccine to contribute to bringing this pandemic to an end. Only through joint efforts will we be able to do so,” Sahin added. 

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134 383 new cases and 1859 deaths in US. And probably it will be much worse.

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1 hour ago, juni78ukr said:

134 383 new cases and 1859 deaths in US. And probably it will be much worse.

It's going to skyrocket after the Thanksgiving holidays. Looks like the worst Chritsmas the US has seen since 1941...right after Pearl Harbor.

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Today in worldometer:

10th country hits 1M confirmed cases 

probably California will become the 2nd state to hit 1M confirmed cases

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Background

SARS-CoV-2 infection is transmitted predominately by respiratory droplets generated when people cough, sneeze, sing, talk, or breathe. CDC recommends community use of masks, specifically non-valved multi-layer cloth masks, to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Masks are primarily intended to reduce the emission of virus-laden droplets (“source control”), which is especially relevant for asymptomatic or presymptomatic infected wearers who feel well and may be unaware of their infectiousness to others, and who are estimated to account for more than 50% of transmissions.1,2  Masks also help reduce inhalation of these droplets by the wearer (“filtration for personal protection”). The community benefit of masking for SARS-CoV-2 control is due to the combination of these effects; individual prevention benefit increases with increasing numbers of people using masks consistently and correctly.

Source Control to Block Exhaled Virus

Multi-layer cloth masks block release of exhaled respiratory particles into the environment,3-6 along with the microorganisms these particles carry.7,8  Cloth masks not only effectively block most large droplets (i.e., 20-30 microns and larger)9 but they can also block the exhalation of fine droplets and particles (also often referred to as aerosols) smaller than 10 microns ;3,5which increase in number with the volume of speech10-12 and specific types of phonation.13 Multi-layer cloth masks can both block up to 50-70% of these fine droplets and particles3,14  and limit the forward spread of those that are not captured.5,6,15,16Upwards of 80% blockage has been achieved in human experiments that have measured blocking of all respiratory droplets,4 with cloth masks in some studies performing on par with surgical masks as barriers for source control.3,9,14

Filtration for Personal Protection

Studies demonstrate that cloth mask materials can also reduce wearers’ exposure to infectious droplets through filtration, including filtration of fine droplets and particles less than 10 microns. The relative filtration effectiveness of various masks has varied widely across studies, in large part due to variation in experimental design and particle sizes analyzed. Multiple layers of cloth with higher thread counts have demonstrated superior performance compared to single layers of cloth with lower thread counts, in some cases filtering nearly 50% of fine particles less than 1 micron .14,17-29 Some materials (e.g., polypropylene) may enhance filtering effectiveness by generating triboelectric charge (a form of static electricity) that enhances capture of charged particles18,30 while others (e.g., silk) may help repel moist droplets31 and reduce fabric wetting and thus maintain breathability and comfort.

Human Studies of Masking and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

Data regarding the “real-world” effectiveness of community masking are limited to observational and epidemiological studies.

  • An investigation of a high-exposure event, in which 2 symptomatically ill hair stylists interacted for an average of 15 minutes with each of 139 clients during an 8-day period, found that none of the 67 clients who subsequently consented to an interview and testing developed infection. The stylists and all clients universally wore masks in the salon as required by local ordinance and company policy at the time.32
  • In a study of 124 Beijing households with > 1 laboratory-confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, mask use by the index patient and family contacts before the index patient developed symptoms reduced secondary transmission within the households by 79%.33
  • A retrospective case-control study from Thailand documented that, among more than 1,000 persons interviewed as part of contact tracing investigations, those who reported having always worn a mask during high-risk exposures experienced a greater than 70% reduced risk of acquiring infection compared with persons who did not wear masks under these circumstances.34
  • A study of an outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an environment notable for congregate living quarters and close working environments, found that use of face coverings on-board was associated with a 70% reduced risk.35
  • Investigations involving infected passengers aboard flights longer than 10 hours strongly suggest that masking prevented in-flight transmissions, as demonstrated by the absence of infection developing in other passengers and crew in the 14 days following exposure.36,37

Seven studies have confirmed the benefit of universal masking in community level analyses: in a unified hospital system,38 a  German city,39 a U.S. state,40 a panel of 15 U.S. states and Washington, D.C.,41,42 as well as both Canada43 and the U.S.44nationally. Each analysis demonstrated that, following directives from organizational and political leadership for universal masking, new infections fell significantly. Two of these studies42,44 and an additional analysis of data from 200 countries that included the U.S.45 also demonstrated reductions in mortality. An economic analysis using U.S. data found that, given these effects, increasing universal masking by 15% could prevent the need for lockdowns and reduce associated losses of up to $1 trillion or about 5% of gross domestic product.42

Conclusions

Experimental and epidemiological data support community masking to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The prevention benefit of masking is derived from the combination of source control and personal protection for the mask wearer. The relationship between source control and personal protection is likely complementary and possibly synergistic14, so that individual benefit increases with increasing community mask use. Further research is needed to expand the evidence base for the protective effect of cloth masks and in particular to identify the combinations of materials that maximize both their blocking and filtering effectiveness, as well as fit, comfort, durability, and consumer appeal. Adopting universal masking policies can help avert future lockdowns, especially if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, hand hygiene, and adequate ventilation.

 

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Great thread from trevb that expands on my earlier point: 

 

 

With 200k daily avg cases rapidly approaching, it suggests we will see 3500+ daily avg deaths by mid Dec — easily blowing away the spring NYC peak.    
 

There was a time when I was hopeful we might be able to avoid 300k when this was all over. Now I hope we keep it under 500k.

Edited by WandaLegion

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This will  a truly terrible Holiday Season. only thing keeping it from bein the worst was the Holiday season in 1941..when  Pearl Harbor was attacke3d  two weeks before CHristmas.

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3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Great thread from trevb that expands on my earlier point: 

 

 

With 200k daily avg deaths rapidly approaching, it suggests we will see 3500+ daily avg deaths by mid Dec — easily blowing away the spring NYC peak.    
 

There was a time when I was hopeful we might be able to avoid 300k when this was all over. Now I hope we keep it under 500k.

If ti goes to 620K, it will be the deadliest single event in US History with the Civil War taking second with 213K.

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5 hours ago, dudalb said:

It's going to skyrocket after the Thanksgiving holidays. Looks like the worst Chritsmas the US has seen since 1941...right after Pearl Harbor.

I think skyrock is unlikely for death totals. The president has given up even trying to fight covid. He's too busy faking a fight on the election. I suspect another 5 to 8 million new cases by the end of the year and a lot more dead. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, dudalb said:

If ti goes to 620K, it will be the deadliest single event in US History with the Civil War taking second with 213K.

 

The Spanish Flu deaths in the US ist estimated at roughly 675.000 so i believe that would be the mark we would never want to see crossed.

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8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Unless the mask is 100% effective or you are immune, if you spend enough time in an unventilated room with an infected person, you will get infected, mask or no mask.

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