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Donald Trump Jr just tested positive for Covid.

Oh, the Irony.

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In Austria, we're now close to 700 ICU patients with Covid19 (we've got about 9mil pop) and that's pretty much the limit - elective surgery and other luxuries have been suspended by now, but of course there's still the "usual" ICU occupancy - heart attacks, strokes, cancer, accidents ...

 

Thankfully, the number of new infections is slowly dropping after two weeks of "soft" lockdown (basically, only gastronomy was closed except take-away) and one week of "hard" lockdown (schools and non-essential businesses closed). From my own observation (confirmed by google motion profile metrics), even this "hard" lockdown is far less severe than the one in spring, so it's probably no big surprise that numbers are dropping slower than in March/April. With our health system (which is about as well-equipped as Germany's, same number of ICUs) working on the limit, and contact tracing overwhelmed, numbers have to drop much more before we can return to at least the "soft" lockdown.

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6 hours ago, Eric Karga said:

 

This is true. 
 

I’ve seen Fatman. 

  • Astonished 1

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Important data collecting info to remember. Over the next 10 days or so data collection will not really be normal and weird results should be expected. Will have to wait until the week after Thanksgiving to get a strong sense of where things stand in the US. Given what has happened in Canada post their Thanksgiving i'm not optimistic. 

 

No release yet for tonight but US has had 3 straight days of over 1,800 deaths (will likely be a little lower today) and the 7 day avg deaths has increased by 200 in 2 days. The chart right now looks really similar to early April.

 

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Covid sucks but hotel being dead is great. Haven't seen a soul. Upgraded to corner suite, $100 dinner credit, $60 breakfast credit. Total price is $12 higher than today's rate for superior room. Check out virtuoso folks. Laters

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Absolute 🔥 🔥 🔥 (and pretty compact) death prediction via CFR blogpost imo: http://htmlpreview.github.io/?https://github.com/cmu-delphi/covidcast-modeling/blob/master/cfr_analysis/cfr_analysis.html#Forecasting:_national_trajectories
 

Though,  I do have one issue issue, but I will keep it to myself for now so as not to taint other’s impressions.   
 

I’m generally loathe to tag people, but I have to wonder what @Jason thinks of it, and I bet @Porthos and @Menor at least would likely consider it a good read (among people who don’t seem to be checking this thread so actively anymore).

Edited by WandaLegion

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15 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Absolute 🔥 🔥 🔥 (and pretty compact) death prediction via CFR blogpost imo: http://htmlpreview.github.io/?https://github.com/cmu-delphi/covidcast-modeling/blob/master/cfr_analysis/cfr_analysis.html#Forecasting:_national_trajectories
 

Though,  I do have one issue issue, but I will keep it to myself for now so as not to taint other’s impressions.   
 

I’m generally loathe to tag people, but I have to wonder what @Jason thinks of it, and I bet @Porthos and @Menor at least would likely consider it a good read (among people who don’t seem to be checking this thread so actively anymore).

Way beyond my paygrade to comment on intelligently, but an interesting (and depressing) read nonetheless.

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I am at a loss of words.

She compared herself to Sophie Scholl (a member of the white rose an organisation of students who tried to put attention to the atrocities that happened during the Nazi-regime) who was killed with a Guillotine in 1943.

 

Don't know exactly how they are called - stewards or something like that, to keep order at public events; one of them said that he won't do if for someone playing down the holocaust.

After which she apparently starts to cry and drops the mic and runs off the stage.

 

This video perfectly illustrates who has a problem with freedom of speech, they want to say they are like the people killed by the Nazis etc. (which is simply wrong), but don't want anyone to say anything about that, which is a first step (more like step number 20) towards becoming an extremist movement.

And they prove that our schools still have to find a way to get better at education people about our past.

 

That whole "Querdenker" (could be translated to lateral thinker - meaning thinking outside / against what the common opinion is) movement has lost even the tiny little bit of credibility it still had.

 

  • ...wtf 1

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I don't buy the death count jumping that vertical. We treat the disease so much better than we did in March. A much bigger chunk of hospitalizations don't stay beyond 7/14 days and a lot less go to the ICU. The death rate for those in the ICU is now much lower.

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I can buy 2,500 avg deaths by 2nd week of December. The rate of cases to deaths has been pretty consistent since June. As long as cases continue to increase and hospitalizations continue to increase deaths are going to increase. It's a simple function of the time lag. 

 

Hospitalizations are up over 50% in the last 2 weeks and up about 75% in 3 weeks. Deaths will follow that. As of last night the avg death rate was almost 1,450.

 

I'm most concerned with how long the numbers will stay at elevated levels. With Thanksgiving coming this week and Christmas 4 weeks later it's hard to see numbers decreasing at all. Canada has seen a significant rise in cases since their Thanksgiving.

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1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

I can buy 2,500 avg deaths by 2nd week of December. The rate of cases to deaths has been pretty consistent since June. As long as cases continue to increase and hospitalizations continue to increase deaths are going to increase. It's a simple function of the time lag. 

 

Hospitalizations are up over 50% in the last 2 weeks and up about 75% in 3 weeks. Deaths will follow that. As of last night the avg death rate was almost 1,450.

 

I'm most concerned with how long the numbers will stay at elevated levels. With Thanksgiving coming this week and Christmas 4 weeks later it's hard to see numbers decreasing at all. Canada has seen a significant rise in cases since their Thanksgiving.

Certainly. Travel is expected to be over 80% of last Thanksgiving. This will likely lead to a surge in cases. Likely 250k+ cases daily average in early December

 

If we had this case count in March we would be looking at 10000 or more daily deaths. 2500-2800 sucks but thank God we have some amazing medical folk here.

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3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Certainly. Travel is expected to be over 80% of last Thanksgiving. This will likely lead to a surge in cases. Likely 250k+ cases daily average in early December

 

If we had this case count in March we would be looking at 10000 or more daily deaths. 2500-2800 sucks but thank God we have some amazing medical folk here.

Agree with that. The much lower CFR makes a huge difference in that death count right now. Though it is really depressing that we are likely to easily surpass the death counts we saw in April.

 

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57 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Agree with that. The much lower CFR makes a huge difference in that death count right now. Though it is really depressing that we are likely to easily surpass the death counts we saw in April.

 

Just think if we didn't have medical breakthroughs with treatment and a vaccine otw in a few weeks. We would be looking 600k+ dead just in America

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I mean, the CFR dropped precipitously since spring primarily since the case detection rates improved. It’s still pretty unclear whether the IFR has even improved that much.


FWIW the 22 day lag CFR has risen a bit *above* 1.8% recently rather than show any sign of decline. 1.8% suggests around 712 deaths be reported by covid19tracking (dropping in the next hourish) so curious to compare.

 

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889 deaths on a Sunday. That is really bad.

 

 

One issue I suspect we will see though is that next week, especially toward the end of the week numbers will be down since it is a Holiday weekend and there will be people who think things are getting better. 

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Seems like cases are getting better and may peak below 190k in wave 3A. OTOH, CFR seems to be getting worse. Unclear how we’ll hold up in wave 3B (post Thanksgiving spreader events).

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15 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Seems like cases are getting better and may peak below 190k in wave 3A. OTOH, CFR seems to be getting worse. Unclear how we’ll hold up in wave 3B (post Thanksgiving spreader events).

Every metric was still increasing last week - though at slower rates. 

 

Looks like we are seeing a slow leveling off of cases, but that still means 2-3 more weeks of increasing hospitalizations and deaths and then we could likely see the Thanksgiving effect happen, and that would be starting at such an elevated place that we could then burst through a 200K avg.

 

All the traveling over Thanksgiving is just going to seed this everywhere (though i'm not sure how many places it isn't already highly seeded. - here in the SE the numbers are better than some other areas, but are starting to approach the highs of the summer surge).

 

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