Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

Recommended Posts

On 11/22/2020 at 10:26 AM, cdsacken said:

I don't buy the death count jumping that vertical. We treat the disease so much better than we did in March. A much bigger chunk of hospitalizations don't stay beyond 7/14 days and a lot less go to the ICU. The death rate for those in the ICU is now much lower.

Still not buying it?

 

On 11/22/2020 at 12:35 PM, RamblinRed said:

I can buy 2,500 avg deaths by 2nd week of December

With the CFR on a clear upward trajectory at this point I’m thinking we hit that Dec 4. New 7-day avg record Dec 1.    
 

Thanksgiving reporting could affect that a bit though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

Still not buying it?

 

With the CFR on a clear upward trajectory at this point I’m thinking we hit that Dec 4. New 7-day avg record Dec 1.    
 

Thanksgiving reporting could affect that a bit though.

It's possible but still unclear to me. Hope not but we shall ser

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Yep. Just shameful that there wasn't a push to mass produce them and get them out the door to the populace at large.

 

As an aside thanks to some persuading commentary from Zeynep Tufekci over at The Atlantic a couple weeks back over just how dangerous this winter surge was going to be, I found out that KN95s are now on sale to the general public over at Amazon.  Picked up a few for when I visit very high volume traffic areas in the next few months. 

 

Not completely sure about all of this paper bag rotation business she mentions in the article, but I see it referenced in more than a few places that talk about the medical recommended use of K/N95 masks, so it sounds like there is a decent amount of scientific basis on that.  As long as one is very very careful about handing them, of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And here is another reason why I  have come to hate the right:

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/527466-dont-let-experts-ruin-your-thanksgiving

 

What a bunch of total nonsense.

And the writer is NOT a Medical Doctor despite the Dr. before his name. He has a Phd, but no a MD.Nice bit of diisinformation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

It's possible but still unclear to me. Hope not but we shall ser

Almost all the medical experts are saying expect really horrible numbers over the next few weeks.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Yep. Just shameful that there wasn't a push to mass produce them and get them out the door to the populace at large.

 

As an aside thanks to some persuading commentary from Zeynep Tufekci over at The Atlantic a couple weeks back over just how dangerous this winter surge was going to be, I found out that KN95s are now on sale to the general public over at Amazon.  Picked up a few for when I visit very high volume traffic areas in the next few months. 

 

Not completely sure about all of this paper bag rotation business she mentions in the article, but I see it referenced in more than a few places that talk about the medical recommended use of K/N95 masks, so it sounds like there is a decent amount of scientific basis on that.  As long as one is very very careful about handing them, of course.

There is more than one type of N95 mask.

 

Some of them are definitely not recommended and are worse than cloth masks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep in mind that Tuesday might be the last unaffected number for a week or so. If not today definitely will be.

As the blog points out, it will be early December before the numbers start to normalize out again so don't pay much attention to high or low numbers for the next 10 days.

 

It also points out that affects from Thanksgiving will not be seen in the data until the 2nd week of December due to the various time lags. Anything before that does not have to do with Thanksgiving.

 

To put yesterday's death total in real terms. That's one American dying every 42 seconds. The 7 day avg is one American dying every 55 seconds.

 

The total death toll is also something that is almost unimaginable at this point.

If you took every person in the US who died by accident last year (car, home, work, drug over dose, etc - every one of them), add every person who committed suicide, then add every person who died from the flu, then add every person who was murdered (by any means, gun, knife, hands,etc) - add all that together and you get about how many people have been officially classified of dying from COVID in the US in less than 9 months.

 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ANybody who thinks the next few weeks..at least in the US are not going to be horrible has his or her head in the sand.

It's like a good deal of the US population have decided to do a Lemming imitation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we expect the data from the USA - if the next two weeks or so will be wonky in that regard - to get corrected/updated in December?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, dudalb said:

Almost all the medical experts are saying expect really horrible numbers over the next few weeks.

 

Agreed I forecasted 2500 deaths daily at some point. Hoping it doesn't get worse but not optimistic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, AndyK said:

There is more than one type of N95 mask.

 

Some of them are definitely not recommended and are worse than cloth masks.

I made sure to buy some explicitly tested and recommended by the FDA. 👍

Edited by Porthos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ugh an article about Astra Zeneca which doubts their vaccine. This is bad news for Europe, who would have relied on this vaccine

 

 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/

 

 

Another article about the same thing.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/business/coronavirus-vaccine-astrazeneca-oxford.html

Edited by Maggie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sacramento County is now under a "Stay At Home" order.

This will be the worst Holiday season every, except for maybe 1941, where Pearl Harbor Hapeened two weeks before Christmas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Sacramento County is now under a "Stay At Home" order.

This will be the worst Holiday season every, except for maybe 1941, where Pearl Harbor Hapeened two weeks before Christmas.

 

It might be more accurate to say "the worst you've experienced"...the famine of the Great Depression...the horror of the world wars and subsequent modern war years (like Vietnam)...the internment times of the Japanese...etc, etc...

 

As I've discussed with my spouse many times...we got lucky to be born and live when we did...we had very little hardship compared to those born even a decade or two before...the fact we made it to 40 with really just 9/11 as a sole huge negative life-altering event was very, very lucky...hardship is normally a normal human condition, so it's one we may have for quite a few years now (with all that has come from 2020), but that's more the norm than the exception...

Edited by TwoMisfits
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It might be more accurate to say "the worst you've experienced"...the famine of the Great Depression...the horror of the world wars and subsequent modern war years (like Vietnam)...the internment times of the Japanese...etc, etc...

 

As I've discussed with my spouse many times...we got lucky to be born and live when we did...we had very little hardship compared to those born even a decade or two before...the fact we made it to 40 with really just 9/11 as a sole huge negative life-altering event was very, very lucky...hardship is normally a normal human condition, so it's one we may have for quite a few years now (with all that has come from 2020), but that's more the norm than the exception...

How are you feeling? Doing ok?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2284 deaths today. 7th highest of the entire pandemic and worst since May 7th. Also, the Positivity rate today is not good at all, almost 11%

 

 

Finally, both CA (18K) and TX  (15K) had record high case counts today.

One death every 38 seconds. 

Happy Thanksgiving.

 

Remember numbers are going to be both abnormally low and abnormally high over the next 7-10 days. 

Likely will have to wait until around Dec 7th to really know how bad of shape we are in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It might be more accurate to say "the worst you've experienced"...the famine of the Great Depression...the horror of the world wars and subsequent modern war years (like Vietnam)...the internment times of the Japanese...etc, etc...

 

As I've discussed with my spouse many times...we got lucky to be born and live when we did...we had very little hardship compared to those born even a decade or two before...the fact we made it to 40 with really just 9/11 as a sole huge negative life-altering event was very, very lucky...hardship is normally a normal human condition, so it's one we may have for quite a few years now (with all that has come from 2020), but that's more the norm than the exception...

Absolutely true. Christmas/Holidays in the 70s gas crisis was worse, Christmas during the wars worse. Christmas during depression worse.

 

Many things were way easier for my parents than they are for me. My dad stayed at 2 employers most of his life and got great raises. They got a house for a really cheap price with a high interest rate and then refinanced down to a reasonable payment. House they bought in 91 for 100k is now worth 475k.

 

Most of my raises have sucked in 12 years. 80% of base increase has come from doing 8 different jobs. With covid I plan of sticking this one out until 2022 and hope to stay with the current employer until I vest 2 more years after. Beyond that I probably will go into position #9 and 10 with a different employer in the next 5 years.

 

Funny enough though I started right in the middle of the global depression in finance. That is still WAY better than starting right now.

 

Edited by cdsacken
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Maggie said:

How are you feeling? Doing ok?

Yeah, I am - thanks for checking:). 

 

I made a few life changes this summer (thanks to some CLL experts) on top of those I'd made in 2019 for food allergies and for now, while my genetic markers at diagnosis in July should have indicated a really, really rapid disease progression, it seems I've slowed it down (although not stopped it).  And slow is what one wants a lot with CLL:).  

 

My goal is to stay untreated through 2021, so I'm thinking ahead and longer term:).

 

PS - For those who do leukemia, on top of my crappy deletions and rearrangements, my CD38 positivity at diagnosis was 65% - that's normally the sign it's all going rapid and badly quickly...it's how I earned 6 week blood tests, when most folks at diagnosis get 3 month ones:)...and how I earned getting approved for every old person vaccine now, but one at a time (to not overload my immune system).  I just got done the pneumonia series, and next up will probably be Shingles before Covid, b/c my sis has had shingles (so it's in the family), b/c you can't take the shingles one once you need treatment, and b/c I don't know which Covid vaccine is gonna work for my protein deletions (so, that's gonna wait on the doc getting up to speed - we're gonna chat in Dec at my next appt, but I think he'll want Shingles series 1st, then Covid one)...

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yeah, I am - thanks for checking:). 

 

I made a few life changes this summer (thanks to some CLL experts) on top of those I'd made in 2019 for food allergies and for now, while my genetic markers at diagnosis in July should have indicated a really, really rapid disease progression, it seems I've slowed it down (although not stopped it).  And slow is what one wants a lot with CLL:).  

 

My goal is to stay untreated through 2021, so I'm thinking ahead and longer term:).

 

PS - For those who do leukemia, on top of my crappy deletions and rearrangements, my CD38 positivity at diagnosis was 65% - that's normally the sign it's all going rapid and badly quickly...it's how I earned 6 week blood tests, when most folks at diagnosis get 3 month ones:)...and how I earned getting approved for every old person vaccine now, but one at a time (to not overload my immune system).  I just got done the pneumonia series, and next up will probably be Shingles before Covid, b/c my sis has had shingles (so it's in the family), b/c you can't take the shingles one once you need treatment, and b/c I don't know which Covid vaccine is gonna work for my protein deletions (so, that's gonna wait on the doc getting up to speed - we're gonna chat in Dec at my next appt, but I think he'll want Shingles series 1st, then Covid one)...

 

I wish you the best and I hope everything turns out okay

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.