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10% of which are the UK variant 

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8 hours ago, lab276 said:

 

Well, it's hard to tell how much of it was as a direct result of Covid, the biggest monthly decline (against the three year average) occurred in January, before covid, and honestly by August, the roads seemed as busy as ever to me, but we were still seeing declines in the amount of deaths.

 

And I know 297 deaths is still a lot, but it puts our roads, on a global level, at very nearly the safest in the world, and it's way way less than what it was in the 70s. 1978 was the deadliest year on record with 1384 deaths and that was just NSW, we don't even get that many nationwide anymore.

 

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January was probably most likely reduced travel to the regions due to bushfires. 

The weird outcome in Australia of the pandemic is likely to be lower on average overall deaths for years to come     due to the increased emphasis on general hygiene and mask wearing. 
 

2020 already less deaths then what would be expected. 

 

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2 hours ago, AndyK said:

10% of which are the UK variant 

English is a second language so maybe it is just maybe, but that seem a complicated way to say something.

 

Up from 5% less than 2 weeks ago

 

Is 5% less mean, up from 25%, up from 28.5%, up from just 5% ?

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2 hours ago, AndyK said:

10% of which are the UK variant 

That is NOT good news. 10% more will be more then enough to crash many national health care systems which are already strained to the limits.

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

English is a second language so maybe it is just maybe, but that seem a complicated way to say something.

 

Up from 5% less than 2 weeks ago

 

Is 5% less mean, up from 25%, up from 28.5%, up from just 5% ?

+1. I was thinking the excact same thing 

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It was 5% 2 weeks ago and now it is 30%. 

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The “good” news in LA county is that it can’t keep burning like this much longer. The youyang estimate for total infected is some 34% now, maybe ~45% by inauguration. By Feb the natural immunity levels will really be cutting into the R.

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36 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

The “good” news in LA county is that it can’t keep burning like this much longer. The youyang estimate for total infected is some 34% now, maybe ~45% by inauguration. By Feb the natural immunity levels will really be cutting into the R.

What do the scientists say about ‘natural immunity’ amd mutation like it seems to be a varying enough one in South Africa?

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17 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

What do the scientists say about ‘natural immunity’ amd mutation like it seems to be a varying enough one in South Africa?

Strictly speaking, you can’t say anything for sure about each new mutation until it’s properly been studied, had data collected, etc.    

 

However, practically speaking, most new strains (including SA) will still be protected against in large degree by immunity, natural and artificial, which works on earlier strains.

 

 

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5 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Strictly speaking, you can’t say anything for sure about each new mutation until it’s properly been studied, had data collected, etc.    

 

However, practically speaking, most new strains (including SA) will still be protected against in large degree by immunity, natural and artificial, which works on earlier strains.

 

 

Most scientists will say that there is no better innoculation than natural infection, although vaccination doesn't come with the same side effects...like death.

 

I posted some data several pages back about studies on random serialogical data that calculated the real infection rate at 5.5 times the # of cases.

 

That would put the USA currently @ 33% have been infected. It will be over 50% by spring.

 

its a pity we can't tell who the 50% are because the vaccine could go twice as far if 50% don't need it.

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52 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Most scientists will say that there is no better innoculation than natural infection

really?

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6 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Strictly speaking, you can’t say anything for sure about each new mutation until it’s properly been studied, had data collected, etc.    

 

However, practically speaking, most new strains (including SA) will still be protected against in large degree by immunity, natural and artificial, which works on earlier strains.

 

Not sure if we can count on that, had once a non-European version of an illness I was vaccinated against in the European version, according to my doctor that vaccine didn’t ... overlap, hence one of the reasons for my ‘hint’-question

 

meant more as a hint that things migt be not as secure in te future than your wording sounded like to me. It might work for all versions, it might not work for mutation .... of the future, see your first sentence in this quote. Maybe it was only a language thingie.

 

If we all are lucky it will be enough, that is what I am hoping for too, but I do not count on it.

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

Most scientists will say that there is no better innoculation than natural infection, although vaccination doesn't come with the same side effects...like death

that I never heard worded like that till today

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6 hours ago, AndyK said:

Most scientists will say that there is no better innoculation than natural infection, although vaccination doesn't come with the same side effects...like death.

 

I posted some data several pages back about studies on random serialogical data that calculated the real infection rate at 5.5 times the # of cases.

 

That would put the USA currently @ 33% have been infected. It will be over 50% by spring.

 

its a pity we can't tell who the 50% are because the vaccine could go twice as far if 50% don't need it.

The speed to adapt vaccines to variations is way faster than the initial production.

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So remember that pharmacist in Wisconsin who (allegedly) intentionally sabotaged vials of vaccine?

 

Quote

The employee, identified in the statement as pharmacist Steven Brandenburg, is accused of intentionally removing 57 vials of the Moderna vaccine from a pharmacy refrigerator at the Aurora Medical Center and leaving them out overnight. The company said it fired the employee after he admitted to intentionally removing the vials. He was arrested last week by Grafton police. 

 

The probable cause statement, written by a Grafton police detective, alleges Brandenburg told investigators that he believed the vaccine "was not safe for people and could harm them and change their DNA." It also alleges that Brandenburg admitted that the tampering was "an intentional act." 

Someone has been watching waaaaaaay too many bad Hollywood thrillers.

 

Prob not a surprise this world view is leaking into his home life, again allegedly:

 

Quote

The pharmacist suspected of intentionally spoiling 500 doses of COVID-19 vaccine at a Wisconsin hospital because he believed they were unsafe was released from jail Monday, after a prosecutor indicated he's not positive the vaccine was actually destroyed.

 

Steven R. Brandenburg, 46, of Grafton, had concerns the vaccines could change people's DNA, an unfounded claim that has been debunkedHis estranged wife said in a divorce record that in early December, he brought her a water purifier and 30-day food supply because the world was "crashing down" due to government cyberattacks and power grid shutdowns.

 

Last week, she said she no longer felt safe around him, and a court commissioner temporarily ordered the couple's children not stay with Brandenburg.

Not gonna make many comments about this except to say that even a college education doesn't necessarily, ahem, inoculate a person from truly incoherent beliefs (that is, that this vaccine could "change people's DNA"). 

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31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Not gonna make many comments about this except to say that even a college education doesn't necessarily, ahem, inoculate a person from truly incoherent beliefs (that is, that this vaccine could "change people's DNA"). 

A school buddy of my father is a medical doctor (and was studying physics along the way) and he developed into a full-blown lunatic ... the whole program: cancer comes from personal problems, AIDS is not caused by a virus, deep into homoeapthy ... NOBODY is safe from lunacy.

 

in other news, the UK has shown a really serious trend; the mutated variant might be contagious enough to overwhelm all efforts at containment (except maybe chinese ones); the only real way out seems to be upramping the vaccine production asap. Obviously, you have to step in stateside, helping with production and logistics whereever possible.

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6 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

A school buddy of my father is a medical doctor (and was studying physics along the way) and he developed into a full-blown lunatic ... the whole program: cancer comes from personal problems, AIDS is not caused by a virus, deep into homoeapthy ... NOBODY is safe from lunacy.

 

in other news, the UK has shown a really serious trend; the mutated variant might be contagious enough to overwhelm all efforts at containment (except maybe chinese ones); the only real way out seems to be upramping the vaccine production asap. Obviously, you have to step in stateside, helping with production and logistics whereever possible.

Yep, over 1 million people (1 in 50) currently have the virus.

 

They said AZN are currently packaging 2 million doses up ready for shipping. The aim is to vaccinate 2 million per week.

 

Wether they can actually do that is another matter.

 

UK us doing it's normal thing, great at ideas, terrible at organisation.

 

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58 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Yep, over 1 million people (1 in 50) currently have the virus.

 

They said AZN are currently packaging 2 million doses up ready for shipping. The aim is to vaccinate 2 million per week.

 

Wether they can actually do that is another matter.

 

UK us doing it's normal thing, great at ideas, terrible at organisation.

 

You ain't the only one. Look at how slowly Germany is moving.

And today a new 15 kilometres rule for areas with more than 200cases/100000 (over 7 days) got introduced. Which I find kinda weird. Someone from Berlin (city centre) has about 3.4-3.5M People in that circle.

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1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

You ain't the only one. Look at how slowly Germany is moving.

And today a new 15 kilometres rule for areas with more than 200cases/100000 (over 7 days) got introduced. Which I find kinda weird. Someone from Berlin (city centre) has about 3.4-3.5M People in that circle.

It‘s about way too many idiots did day-trips to eg closed ski-resorts, ignored all rules. They make ift also tremndiously difficult to trace possible contacts after they finally got tested as a positive. In speeds up the spreading in general.

 

Many many towns in typical tourist interest are actually following the rules rather good, then tourists come amd bring with them the virus. The ones breaking the rules seem to be the ones who are more infected than the average (my impression), as the havoc they cause is so big.

 

It‘s the same with people not understanding the curfew, its not about infecting the person you visited the same day, its about the people tending to party at the evening even more than during day-time (alcohol, too many in small rooms amd so on)

 

 

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