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With the new strain from the UK, i believe vaccine efforts will be in vain. Natural imunization will happen imo. This year will be as bad as last one

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1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

You ain't the only one. Look at how slowly Germany is moving.

And today a new 15 kilometres rule for areas with more than 200cases/100000 (over 7 days) got introduced. Which I find kinda weird. Someone from Berlin (city centre) has about 3.4-3.5M People in that circle.

It‘s about way too many idiots did day-trips to eg closed ski-resorts, ignored all rules. They make ift also tremndiously difficult to trace possible contacts after they finally got tested as a positive. In speeds up the spreading in general.

 

Many many towns in typical tourist interest are actually following the rules rather good, then tourists come amd bring with them the virus. The ones breaking the rules seem to be the ones who are more infected than the average (my impression), as the havoc they cause is so big.

 

It‘s the same with people not understanding the curfew, its not about infecting the person you visited the same day, its about the people tending to party at the evening even more than during day-time (alcohol, too many in small rooms amd so on)

 

 

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We’re barely getting 5000 people done a day in Ontario, we have almost 15m people here alone in our province.
 

Our premier thought vaccines could save him from this situation and how terribly he’s dealt with it, but he can’t even get people vaccinated cause he’s such a fuck up.

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My wife got lucky.  She works for Walgreens and her boss was in a nursing home giving vaccines and they had 2 extra doses that were drawn and had to be used.  So she got offered one and jumped at it.

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32 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

My wife got lucky.  She works for Walgreens and her boss was in a nursing home giving vaccines and they had 2 extra doses that were drawn and had to be used.  So she got offered one and jumped at it.

The stupid thing here is that Pfizer told everyone that the vials hold 5 doses and they actually hold 6. Because you have to book to get a shot, they are throwing the rest away.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, terrestrial said:

It‘s about way too many idiots did day-trips to eg closed ski-resorts, ignored all rules. They make ift also tremndiously difficult to trace possible contacts after they finally got tested as a positive. In speeds up the spreading in general.

 

Many many towns in typical tourist interest are actually following the rules rather good, then tourists come amd bring with them the virus. The ones breaking the rules seem to be the ones who are more infected than the average (my impression), as the havoc they cause is so big.

 

It‘s the same with people not understanding the curfew, its not about infecting the person you visited the same day, its about the people tending to party at the evening even more than during day-time (alcohol, too many in small rooms amd so on)

 

 

I know about that, but you can most definitely find other rules for that than some 15 km radius. Despite all those people driving to ski resorts, I think people ignoring rules of meeting each other is a bigger reason, especially because that is mostly happening inside and 15 km radius won't stop that in the cities etc.

And my point was just that 15 km is a whole city (unless you want skiing) that changes nothing. In "rural" areas there isn't that much within 15 km of a village.

Also getting everyone vaccinated isn't the short term strategy (most politicians act like it is). But with how slow we are and especially how slow states like lower Saxony are (that won't make a difference until probably May/June or later considering Moderna got approved  just now and AstraZenca (the EU ordered more of this than of Modern and BioNTech/Pfizer combined) is unlikely to get one in the next month (or two) and Johnson and Johnson is probably an additional month further away. And Curvec (the biggest portion of the EU order) is even farther away and we won't even star speaking about Sanofi.

 

But putting a curfew in place changes little if its rarely enforced or people will move it to earlier in the day or still do it and honestly that didn't seem to help much if at all.

People still speed a shit load on the streets despite the possibility that they can kill themselves or that we have a load of speed cameras.

 

My point is the politicians just decide stuff without actually doing anything to enforcing any of the earlier rules or they set them as guidelines or whatever.

 

Edited for EMA approval of Moderna (didn't expect that today).

Edited by Taruseth

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One of the weirdest turn of events this week in the UK.....arch brexiteer Nigel Farage has recommended arch Europhile PM Tony Blair be put in charge of the UKs vaccination program.

 

Causing quite a few people to scratch their heads but it appears Blair came up with idea of delaying the second jab to get more throughput.

 

 

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First, my mom and dad were able to get their first vaccine shots yesterday in GA and have their second shots set for Feb 2nd. That was very happy news for me as everywhere else has been miserable as my best friend's dad has been in the hospital since Christmas Day with COVID (it has been attacking his kidneys but so many techs at the hospital are out sick with COVID that he has only been able to get dialysis twice since he entered the hospital) and yesterday by son's best friend's dad was admitted to ICU with COVID. i also have a cousin who has been significantly ill with it for over a week.

 

2nd, numbers starting to rebound. Hospitalizations in the South and West are now worse than the peak of the Midwest's number this fall and the NE is close to passing that peak as well. Here in metro Atlanta almost all the hospitals are full. At the one closest to me they had 19 ambulances parked outside on Saturday because they had no beds available and no other hopsital had beds available to send the ambulances to. The state has re-opened its field hospital, it has 120 beds available, but lack of staffing means they are likely to only to be able to use 60 at most.

 

 

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And Covid will go back being the #1 Story tommorow, after losing the place to a attempted copu in Washington.

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Its not over until it's over 

 

 

 

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On 1/4/2021 at 4:20 PM, WandaLegion said:

The “good” news in LA county is that it can’t keep burning like this much longer. The youyang estimate for total infected is some 34% now, maybe ~45% by inauguration. By Feb the natural immunity levels will really be cutting into the R.


I’d be cautious about using those guesstimates to claim we’re remotely close to any sort of herd immunity here. Even the local public health officials aren’t saying that. The spread of the B117 variant also means if it’s prevalent, its higher transmission rate takes what would be a lower R0 and kicks back up above 1. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Plain Old Tele said:


I’d be cautious about using those guesstimates to claim we’re remotely close to any sort of herd immunity here. Even the local public health officials aren’t saying that. The spread of the B117 variant also means if it’s prevalent, its higher transmission rate takes what would be a lower R0 and kicks back up above 1. 

Even if you take the low end estimates it’s like 22% by inauguration, and if things don’t slow down about 30% my mid Feb. That takes an R of 1.4 to slightly below 1.   
 

I’m not saying that it’s all going to magically go away in a few weeks or something, I think optimistically it will be a humanitarian disaster for like another month, realistically, another two, and perhaps pessimistically another three.
 

But the current rates of infection are so bad that it mathematically must either: 

1) continue at around current levels or even higher, resulting in immunity levels that are really taking a bite out of R by early spring 

2) end up with lower levels of immunity than in 1 by having the case curve come down faster/earlier (from a combination of NPIs, vaccination, seasonality, etc)   
 

And to be clear, I don’t think this ND/SD type situation is a good spot for any locale to be, thus the air quotes. 

Edited by WandaLegion
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6 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Even if you take the low end estimates it’s like 22% by inauguration, and if things don’t slow down about 30% my mid Feb. That takes an R of 1.4 to slightly below 1.   
 

I’m not saying that it’s all going to magically go away in a few weeks or something, I think optimistically it will be a humanitarian disaster for like another month, realistically, another two, and perhaps pessimistically another three.
 

But the current rates of infection are so bad that it mathematically must either: 

1) continue at around current levels or even higher, resulting in immunity levels that are really taking a bite out of R by early spring 

2) end up with lower levels of immunity than in 1 by having the case curve come down faster/earlier (from a combination of NPIs, vaccination, seasonality, etc)   
 

And to be clear, I don’t think this ND/SD type situation is a good spot for any locale to be, thus the air quotes. 

The higher the R value, the higher the herd immunity level.

 

The herd immunity level for the English variant is estimated at 80%.

 

 

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2 hours ago, AndyK said:

The higher the R value, the higher the herd immunity level.

 

The herd immunity level for the English variant is estimated at 80%.

 

 

It would require 10x the amount of deaths though. We will all be vaccinated by then.

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2 hours ago, Chicago said:

It would require 10x the amount of deaths though. We will all be vaccinated by then.

Vaccination is herd immunity.

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Why hasn't vaccination pick up any speed?

 

Are people busying taking their second dose? 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, AndyK said:

The higher the R value, the higher the herd immunity level.

 

The herd immunity level for the English variant is estimated at 80%.

 

 

People focus too much on the “herd immunity threshold” of 1-1/R_0 imo. The R_t in practice is always changing because of population behavior, the immunity is a bit more effective because of population heterogeneity, and immunity has a continuous effect rather than a binary.   
 

If you’re dealing with some new strains which we’ll say has an R_0 of 5 (if this end up correct it will be a tragedy). In a lot of areas right now it might end up having an R_t before considering immunity of around 2 (extremely dangerous). But if you have like 30% natural immunity and 10% vaccination immunity, that can cut the R_t to 1.2 — or with heterogeneity, maybe even more like 1-1.1. That’s still a growing virus, but not a fast exploding one. You’re very far from the HIT, but also seeing big effects already from the combo of partial immunity and continued NPIs.

Edited by WandaLegion

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Posted (edited)

 

(edit, UK cleared Moderna too)

Edited by terrestrial
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