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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Just now, AndyK said:

Ditto.

 

Just to add, recently I have had 2 indirect relatives die from Covid. The first is a brother in law's wife's father, who went into hospital after a fall with a broken hip, contracted Covid in hospital and died. The second is a sisters husband's mother where virtually the same thing happened.

 

Hospitals are the last place you want to be for anything other than Covid right now.


My condolences to you and their families as well. 😢

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Just watched the first Biden Adminstration Covid briefing.....

God, I could not beleive the change.

And it wa Fauci, at last unleashed. He could say what the thought, he could explain the science,  which  he could not do before because it would take time away from Dear Leader. There was also none of the fake Happy Talk we have had in the past.

Science is back andnow in control. And, to use a line from "The Martian" if we are going to beat COvid we are going to have to science the hell out of this.

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AKIRA was right!

 

Akira-1988-anime_CNNPH.jpg

 

Just cancel them!

Edited by cannastop

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Villain of 2020:

 

#1-Jim Carry's Doctor Robotnik (Sonic The Hedgehog)

Runner-Up: Russell Crowe's Road Rage Motorist (Unhinged)

 

3. Miles (The Turning)

 

 

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First off, thanks for all the kind words.

 

On a better note, it is nice to see that hospitalizations continue to trend downward in the US. We have a long ways to go but hopefully we are past peak at this point.

 

Second, this is a good article on timelines for vaccinating people in the US. Bottom line is still a good scenario would be fall of 2021 having enough people vaccinated to start to get herd immunity. Unlikely to occur before that and if there are issues it could slip to end of 2021 or 2022.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/health/us-vaccination-timeline-analysis/index.html

 

In the past seven days, about 914,000 doses have been administered daily. If vaccination continues at this same rate, every adult in the US could be fully vaccinated by summer 2022, according to a CNN analysis.
If vaccination picks up to 1 million shots per day, in line with Biden's promise, that timeline could bump up to spring 2022.
To fully vaccinate all adults in the US by the end of the year, the pace would have to increase to about 1.3 million doses administered per day.
 
While vaccinating the full population is ideal, it's likely not necessary to start a return to normalcy.
Herd immunity -- when a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease and spread from person to person is unlikely -- would be expected to happen sooner.
 
Assuming three-quarters of US adults must be fully vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, the US could reach this threshold by February 2022 if vaccination continues at the same rate as the past seven days -- about 914,000 doses administered daily, according to a CNN analysis.
If vaccination picks up to 1 million shots per day, herd immunity in the US could be reached by the end of 2021.
 
At a Harvard Business Review event on Tuesday, Fauci said the effects of herd immunity may begin by fall.
"If we do that efficiently -- from April, May, June, July, August -- by the time we get to the beginning of the fall, we should have that degree of protection that I think can get us back to some form of normality," he said.
 
However, even if the United States reaches some level of herd immunity, the situation may be different in other parts of the world.
Last week, the World Health Organization's chief scientist, Soumya Swaminathan, warned that global herd immunity should not be expected this year.
 
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6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

On a better note, it is nice to see that hospitalizations continue to trend downward in the US. We have a long ways to go but hopefully we are past peak at this point.

 

Second, this is a good article on timelines for vaccinating people in the US. Bottom line is still a good scenario would be fall of 2021 having enough people vaccinated to start to get herd immunity. Unlikely to occur before that and if there are issues it could slip to end of 2021 or 2022.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/health/us-vaccination-timeline-analysis/index.html

 

The most important part of this article is the following, IMO...

 

"Pfizer has committed to provide 200 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine by the end of July, and Moderna said it will deliver a total of 200 million doses by June, or the end of the second quarter of the year."

 

400 million doses just from those 2, not including the J&J vaccine that will start distributing towards the end of February/beginning of March, or other vaccines coming in the time frame, means we should be able to first dose vaccinate at least 70% the adult population in this country by the 4th of July and fully vaccinate at least 50% by then. 

 

Hopefully soon (by the end of Q1) we will have seen a precipitous drop in Covid hospitalizations/deaths in the US. 

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I applied for the vaccine today as I’m classified as a essential worker(grocery store). Hoping to have the first dose within a month. I’m tired of this mess. 

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8 hours ago, dudalb said:

And, to use a line from "The Martian" if we are going to beat COvid we are going to have to science the hell out of this.

hehe, atm much of the science has already happened, now we're in the "logistic the hell out of it" phase. In Austria, this is developing into a bureaucratic nightmare since distribution of the vaccines was outsorced to the states ...

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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

hehe, atm much of the science has already happened, now we're in the "logistic the hell out of it" phase. In Austria, this is developing into a bureaucratic nightmare since distribution of the vaccines was outsorced to the states ...

States, as in Austrian states?

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5 hours ago, AndyK said:

States, as in Austrian states?

yep, Austria has only 9mil inhabitants, but is divided in 9 "Bundesländer" - the biggest is Vienna, with about 2mil pop, while the smallest one, Burgenland, has <300k pop. Each of those nine has a parliament and government of its own, with complete administration, and while they're not as independent as in the US, there's still lots of themes that get organised on this federal level - among them health.

 

About one year through the pandemic, it's obvious that this federal structure is very good when it comes to diluting responsability. If something goes wrong (missing PPE, rising infections, vaccination chaos ...), it's very easy to blame it on some other level of administration, just not one's own.

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12 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The most important part of this article is the following, IMO...

 

"Pfizer has committed to provide 200 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine by the end of July, and Moderna said it will deliver a total of 200 million doses by June, or the end of the second quarter of the year."

 

400 million doses just from those 2, not including the J&J vaccine that will start distributing towards the end of February/beginning of March, or other vaccines coming in the time frame, means we should be able to first dose vaccinate at least 70% the adult population in this country by the 4th of July and fully vaccinate at least 50% by then. 

 

Hopefully soon (by the end of Q1) we will have seen a precipitous drop in Covid hospitalizations/deaths in the US. 

Keep in mind that we found our last month that the delivery of those doses, at least in the US, is likely to come toward the end of the timeframe listed. 

After Pfizer delivers its first 100M doses it has said it second 100M doses won't go to the US until June/July as they have contracts with other countries for all their dose before then.

 

in the US in order to not have a shortage of doses the J&J has to come online or we will hit a period in the spring when there will not be available doses.

 

Everyone has to keep in mind that these companies have contracts with many countries and have to manage those contracts and when they have to provide doses to different countries. Don't assume that there is a steady stream of doses coming from companies to countries. It's more like dumps. They will give a large bunch of doses to one set of countries, and then another dump to a different set of countries in the next month.

 

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12 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The most important part of this article is the following, IMO...

 

"Pfizer has committed to provide 200 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine by the end of July, and Moderna said it will deliver a total of 200 million doses by June, or the end of the second quarter of the year."

 

400 million doses just from those 2, not including the J&J vaccine that will start distributing towards the end of February/beginning of March, or other vaccines coming in the time frame, means we should be able to first dose vaccinate at least 70% the adult population in this country by the 4th of July and fully vaccinate at least 50% by then. 

 

Hopefully soon (by the end of Q1) we will have seen a precipitous drop in Covid hospitalizations/deaths in the US. 

We should have a springtime drop helped by weather and everyone going back outdoors as they did in early fall (Sept/Oct), but we could have the summer surge when everyone goes back inside and hits ac, ala Florida last year...so it may look good in April/May, and then start deteriorating in June/July, although vaccination should help alot if the vaccines cover all the variants... 

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Found a ~ local county press release, used a translation software

 

Quote

According to an evaluation by the health department, more than half of the newly infected persons in the district have been infected in private surroundings since the first Lockdown Light at the beginning of November. 12 per cent were infected at work, 10 per cent in care facilities and 7 per cent in medical facilities. 2 per cent were confirmed to have been infected in day-care centres and schools, and in 10 per cent of the cases the original source of infection cannot be determined

 

We have since early November at first a light lock-down, since 15 December a way harder lockdown including all schools, kindergarten, libraries, non-essential stores,... are closed, since a short time in my state we need ffp2 masks for public transportation and buying groceries (before it was simple mask allowed too, but always with masks), but country-wide it will be changed from whatever to medical or ffp2 only too.

 

No exceptions for mask carrying beside medical special cases, but those have to follow stricter distance rules instead.

 

7-day/Inzidenz went down from something over 300 per 100.000 to ~ slightly under 130 to nearly 200 (high new numbers at Wednesday/Thursday), I think the ffp2 too new for having a bigger impact yet.

 

Interesting to me is to observe how a part of the privately meeting people seem to assume usually a basic feel of security, like its family, they still give hugs.... (saw a few of those eg looking out of windows at different places)

 

Was the first split to reasons list I’ve seen here, but I had not searched for one

 

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They broke up a wedding party with 150 guests a few days ago...this is why we can't have nice things...

 

 

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

They broke up a wedding party with 150 guests a few days ago...this is why we can't have nice things...

 

 

you're not alone ... such things happen everywhere.

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On 1/22/2021 at 12:36 PM, AndyK said:

Confirmed... Not only is the UK variant more infectious it's also more lethal.

 

That goes for many of the early rules of thumb that often said (IIRC):

Significant New strain will almost certainly not happen

If they do, if they are more infectious (because of the distianciation measure it almost need to be) it will achieve that by being less lethal.

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Over in the theater closing thread we have one person saying how everything will be normal in the US bt May, and how looking at the death rates is "Silly"/

The curse of this website is people who reject reality in favor of fantasy.

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