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DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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16 minutes ago, Chicago said:

I thought Covid 19 being seasonal was common knowledge from the start? Hence all the warnings of a 2nd deadlier wave come winter? This was all discussed right at the start with examples like cold weather allowing the virus to live longer, it also causes people to group up in warm boxed rooms leaving less circulation to rid the virus whereas when its hot your windows are open and people find it easier to minimise the spread. Despite the warnings, UK's 2nd wave has been severe

The last - it feels like 10 - pages back posts are on my side NOT about if its a seasonal virus or not, but how the posts were worded, which examples got picked and prejudice shown.

I feel also that this detail was repeatedly included  in my posts, so I am a bit surprised people still try to discuss that

 

It was aso about the strange post Andy gave about he got thread-banned then because he had a certain opinion, as I think it was - again - about how he words / presents his opinions, not the opinion itself. Like all UK do this, all US do the opposite in one situation. Prejudiced wording, not oK, for me not even oK as an (alleged) ‘joke’. People can think I have no humor... I don’t care (I actually laugh a lot), no prejudice is a joke/funny.

 

People also tried to point out that an assumption can be made, even being 99% correct, but to let science have the time to actually observe,... before giving a final judgement. Again, its a thing how to word something = meant generally, not specific about the seasonal part.

 

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1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

The last - it feels like 10 - pages back posts are on my side NOT about if its a seasonal virus or not, but how the posts were worded, which examples got picked and prejudice shown.

I feel also that this detail was repeatedly included  in my posts, so I am a bit surprised people still try to discuss that

 

It was aso about the strange post Andy gave about he got thread-banned then because he had a certain opinion, as I think it was - again - about how he words / presents his opinions, not the opinion itself. Like all UK do this, all US do the opposite in one situation. Prejudiced wording, not oK, for me not even oK as an (alleged) ‘joke’. People can think I have no humor... I don’t care (I actually laugh a lot), no prejudice is a joke/funny.

 

People also tried to point out that an assumption can be made, even being 99% correct, but to let science have the time to actually observe,... before giving a final judgement. Again, its a thing how to word something = meant generally, not specific about the seasonal part.

 

No, it's about critical thinking, go see how @Barnack does it, he's probably the best one on this site at it.

 

Its about fitting to the data you have available and not just singing from the hymn sheet.

Edited by AndyK

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37 minutes ago, AndyK said:

No, it's about critical thinking, go see how @Barnack does it, he's probably the best one on this site at it.

 

Its about fitting to the data you have available and not just singing from the hymn sheet.

critical thinking has nothing to do with stating prejudice, two entirely different themes.

 

What I am sure you are aware of

 

= means for me this is the final drop, I’ll end conversations with you now, it makes seemingly no sense to try to show where the real source of irritations here is.

 

 

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3 hours ago, AndyK said:

Except it was predicted and it was predictable from all the other respiratory viruses including coronaviruses, the swedish and european data proves that point and if your southern states outbreaks had occurred at a low temperatures, they would have been 10 times worse.

 

You can't spin that any other way, that chart shows without doubt, seasonality and if seasonal in one place, its seasonal everywhere that has seasons.

 

There was a severe lack of critical thinking abilities being displayed  back in the thread.

 

ps. I apologise if I insulted anyone, but I'm still pretty bummed from that ban, particularly as many things I predicted at the time are seemingly becoming trueish.


There was a severe lack of your own reading comprehension. I'm sorry to be so direct about it, but if you want to dish it, you better be able to take it.

The point that many others were trying to make to you then, and that I am pointing out to you now, is that a blanket prediction could not be made - i.e. that it could be predicted that the disease would just fade away everywhere during the summer. Which it did not, despite the general pattern.

This distinction matters because as I believe you do understand, the seasonality of the illness is driven by changes in human behaviour rather than the nature of the virus itself. So it was important for people to understand that they couldn't just assume this would go away until October like the flu - that they should continue to be "on guard" during the summer.

Perhaps you do understand this, but you clearly did not and still do not understand it was the point others were trying to make.

In Canada, the rise in cases may appear to be seasonally driven, but the rise in cases began to happen in August, a few weeks after lockdowns were lifted, and there was a dramatic rise in cases in September. The much higher cases counts later into the fall are therefore partially an artifact of when the lockdowns were lifted - it's very possible that had we decided to lift lockdowns very quickly like they did in the southern US, we could have seen a surge in the spring as well, despite spring and summer weather that is significantly more comfortable.

It's worth noting that flu cases do not begin to start their rise here until October. The point being that the behaviour of other respiratory diseases could not be used as an exact guide in this first year.

Allow me to re-emphasize: other people did not say that COVID would not display any seasonality. In fact, the probable seasonality was directly acknowedged. They pointed out, correctly, that it could not be assumed the virus would automatically decrease in warmer weather. While the US is the only country that had a large wave in a period of warm weather, there were numerous countries that had rising case counts in periods of warm weather, Canada included. Again, this is different than what we see with the flu, where infections do not rise until the weather is quite cool.

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1 hour ago, Jason said:


There was a severe lack of your own reading comprehension. I'm sorry to be so direct about it, but if you want to dish it, you better be able to take it.

The point that many others were trying to make to you then, and that I am pointing out to you now, is that a blanket prediction could not be made - i.e. that it could be predicted that the disease would just fade away everywhere during the summer. Which it did not, despite the general pattern.

This distinction matters because as I believe you do understand, the seasonality of the illness is driven by changes in human behaviour rather than the nature of the virus itself. So it was important for people to understand that they couldn't just assume this would go away until October like the flu - that they should continue to be "on guard" during the summer.

Perhaps you do understand this, but you clearly did not and still do not understand it was the point others were trying to make.

In Canada, the rise in cases may appear to be seasonally driven, but the rise in cases began to happen in August, a few weeks after lockdowns were lifted, and there was a dramatic rise in cases in September. The much higher cases counts later into the fall are therefore partially an artifact of when the lockdowns were lifted - it's very possible that had we decided to lift lockdowns very quickly like they did in the southern US, we could have seen a surge in the spring as well, despite spring and summer weather that is significantly more comfortable.

It's worth noting that flu cases do not begin to start their rise here until October. The point being that the behaviour of other respiratory diseases could not be used as an exact guide in this first year.

Allow me to re-emphasize: other people did not say that COVID would not display any seasonality. In fact, the probable seasonality was directly acknowedged. They pointed out, correctly, that it could not be assumed the virus would automatically decrease in warmer weather. While the US is the only country that had a large wave in a period of warm weather, there were numerous countries that had rising case counts in periods of warm weather, Canada included. Again, this is different than what we see with the flu, where infections do not rise until the weather is quite cool.

If you are seeing rises in summer due to air conditioning in southern states, then you will also see the same in every other virus that transmits that way. You may not be able to measure it easily because it is highly attenuated by herd immunity, but it almost certainly is there.

 

I'm going to make a prediction based on the amplification of symptoms this pandemic has expose in coronaviruses....

 

When this is over and scientists get back to their studies, some will go and look at the existing 4 coronaviruses that cause the common cold in more detail and they will find that they are not as benign as they thought and actually, some are still doing damage.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by AndyK

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3 hours ago, AndyK said:

If you are seeing rises in summer due to air conditioning in southern states, then you will also see the same in every other virus that transmits that way. You may not be able to measure it easily because it is highly attenuated by herd immunity, but it almost certainly is there.


No. You do not see that rise, and it simply isn't there, precisely because of pre-existing immunity. A rise in cases only occurs when R is above 1. Since a large portion of the population has at least partial immunity to pre-existing viruses, R is therefore just over 1 in the winter for the flu and colds. A slight reduction in transmission is therefore enough to push R below 1, which causes cases to decline to a negligible level, and prevents any rise until the weather is quite cool.

Since the R for COVID was at least 2, a large reduction in R (at least 50%, probably more) is required to push R below 1. Consequently, warmer weather, by itself, may not be enough to make cases go down, which is why a rise occured during warm weather periods in at least some places where lockdowns were relaxed.

May I gently suggest to you that you do not have enough knowledge and understanding in this area to be drawing your own conclusions. (Or for that matter, accusing others of lacking critical thinking.)

Edited by Jason
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As predicted, UK hits 100K deaths.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jason said:


No. You do not see that rise, and it simply isn't there, precisely because of pre-existing immunity. A rise in cases only occurs when R is above 1. Since a large portion of the population has at least partial immunity to pre-existing viruses, R is therefore just over 1 in the winter for the flu and colds. A slight reduction in transmission is therefore enough to push R below 1, which causes cases to decline to a negligible level, and prevents any rise until the weather is quite cool.

Since the R for COVID was at least 2, a large reduction in R (at least 50%, probably more) is required to push R below 1. Consequently, warmer weather, by itself, may not be enough to make cases go down, which is why a rise occured during warm weather periods in at least some places where lockdowns were relaxed.

May I gently suggest to you that you do not have enough knowledge and understanding in this area to be drawing your own conclusions? (Or for that matter, accusing others of lacking critical thinking.)

I’d also add that there is on one side the infection counts, and a maybe difference how severe it gets (eg long term, death count, ...) for parts of the people per eg weather caused differences in people’s behavior and other details too?

 

In winter the air in homes is often dry, some people’s airways might be already a bit stressed before an infection.

I also know of a lot of (mostly older) people who for whatever reason drink less water whilst being inside.

In summer, as people go more outside, they also ‘tank’ sunlight, are less 9n commonly used closed air rooms (depends on the temperature and region...)

Not saying there is an influence, only saying its too soon to be sure what plays with which pre-condition health-wise, general typ-wise, or housing / work situation into the difference between death count and infection counts.

Also the rate an infection spread already through is highly different per regions it seems, that too can skew results at a (too) fast glance

Then long term damage, is it always the same, or are there differences? In many region they do not even look into those or long-covid or....

 

All of that and many more details can influence the final conclusion, add mutations,.... its still in ~ movement (?)

 

If I should strike through any of this, I’d be glad to learn which points I may ‘forget’.

 

edit, another thought building up in my mind since a few days, see long-covid death after - I think is was released the additional deaths not yet counted as COVID cases are happening around 5 months after a hospital stay or so - they pointed out explicit the under 70y old and ethnic minorities in the UK, maybe to look also into their countries of origin, what happens there, and if there are differences, where are differences between details of living in the UK to their origin country?

Edited by terrestrial

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/pfizer-to-deliver-u-s-vaccine-doses-faster-than-expected-ceo

 

Pfizer Inc. will be able to supply the U.S. with 200 million Covid-19 vaccine doses by the end of May, two months sooner than previously expected, according to its top executive.

 

Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla said Tuesday that the drugmaker and its partner, BioNTech SE, will be able to deliver the doses to the U.S. well before an earlier July 31 deadline due to a change in the vaccine’s label that allows health-care providers to extract an additional dose from each vial.

In all, Pfizer and BioNTech have said they plan to produce 2 billion doses in 2021, a 50% increase from estimates given last year. 

 

Edited by VenomXXR
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(China isn't included due to a lack of reliable data)

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20 hours ago, DeeCee said:

(China isn't included due to a lack of reliable data)

Not obvious what else they could do better but relying on those 6 data:

 

Confirmed cases

Confirmed deaths

Confirmed cases per million people

Confirmed deaths per million people

Confirmed cases as a proportion of tests

Tests per thousand people

 

For 4 of them not doing a good job (or lying) can help you a lot, I imagine that by now too it is way less an issue than in may. And maybe make some country pass over a Norway, S.Korea or Iceland when it was not actually a better response and result, but I imagine the gross order can be valid.

 

And the first 2 sound like they can be strange to use at all after a certain population level (say pass 10 millions people...., it would be strange to use total test for example, that part feel suspicious and could artificially make big population country that test a lot look worse than they were)

 

Happy to see Rwanda so high (maybe not surprising), the amount of success story after 1994 for that country is impressive. Only 14K case for 850K test ! 60 test by caes found that not that different than south Korea 71.55 testing effort level.

Edited by Barnack
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Coronavirus: EU demands UK-made AstraZeneca vaccine doses

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-55822602?__twitter_impression=true

 

Germany banned ventilator exports to UK.

France forced companies to cancel NHS PPE contracts and requisitioned them for themselves.

 

Now they want our vaccine which we purposely made sure it had a full UK supply chain to avoid this sort of thing.

 

I would expect this from Trump, not the EU.

 

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Daily vaccinations of Moderna+Pfizer seem to be plateauing around 1.2-1.3M for now. Should still see some slower growth, but that’s a fine pace for now.   
 

Cases and hospitalizations still in free fall. 
 

 

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12 hours ago, AndyK said:

 

Coronavirus: EU demands UK-made AstraZeneca vaccine doses

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-55822602?__twitter_impression=true

 

Germany banned ventilator exports to UK.

France forced companies to cancel NHS PPE contracts and requisitioned them for themselves.

 

Now they want our vaccine which we purposely made sure it had a full UK supply chain to avoid this sort of thing.

 

I would expect this from Trump, not the EU.

 

Production problems are to be expected if new manufacturing plants are being made to deliver the vaccine. Ordering 3 months later also doesn't help the EU. It's no surprise they were late to the party, fast decision making just isn't as easy when you have to run it by everyone at the top. 

 

As for UK allocating vaccines for our people to go to them, that won't happen. They have to appreciate charity always begins at home and right now the UK are suffering the most out of europe, we are dealing with a deadlier and more transmittance virus clocking 1500 deaths a day whilst foreign countries have rightly blocked us from travel. Lets not forget that Pfizer is also having production issues.

 

The idea that the EU can monitor and prevent companies from distributing their goods from the block does highlight some of the problems of being in the EU. All that being said its getting blown a little out of proportion. I'm sure Astra are doing their best to provide all the vaccines they can

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4 hours ago, Chicago said:

Production problems are to be expected if new manufacturing plants are being made to deliver the vaccine. Ordering 3 months later also doesn't help the EU. It's no surprise they were late to the party, fast decision making just isn't as easy when you have to run it by everyone at the top. 

 

As for UK allocating vaccines for our people to go to them, that won't happen. They have to appreciate charity always begins at home and right now the UK are suffering the most out of europe, we are dealing with a deadlier and more transmittance virus clocking 1500 deaths a day whilst foreign countries have rightly blocked us from travel. Lets not forget that Pfizer is also having production issues.

 

The idea that the EU can monitor and prevent companies from distributing their goods from the block does highlight some of the problems of being in the EU. All that being said its getting blown a little out of proportion. I'm sure Astra are doing their best to provide all the vaccines they can

The EU commission raided the Astrazenica premises today so I don't think it's blown out of proportion.

 

It seems the EMA used to be based in London before brexit and relied heavily on the MHRA for its technical work. When they moved to Amsterdam they couldn't get the staff to move, they just took jobs with MHRA and so the EMA lost its expertise.

 

They made a hash of it due to inexperience.

 

 

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10 hours ago, AndyK said:

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EU 4 years ago: Go on, leave, see how you all suffer FOOLS.

 

EU now: Can we have some of your science please? 

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