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DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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The vaccine has landed.

 

 

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7 hours ago, DeeCee said:

The vaccine has landed.

 

 

I believe the AZ vaccine is being manufactured in Oz.

 

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11 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Despite high PS and OW hype, the variants don’t appear to be legging well OS

 

#ReleaseTheUKvariant

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Vaccine data reporting disrupted a bit by the holiday.  
 

Case/test/death data today and tomorrow might also be  little affected, but hospitalizations today are showing the continuation of the previous trend:

Case avg -3.5%, hosp avg -2.8%.   
 

Weekly we’re averaging -3.5% Case avg and hosp -2.8%.   
 

3 weeks from now at that rate (Mon after Raya) would be about 42k cases (implying ~500 deaths end of March) and 36k hospitalizations, quite close to record low.

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On 2/14/2021 at 11:24 PM, WandaLegion said:

Despite high PS and OW hype, the variants don’t appear to be legging well OS

 

 

Yah well, this basically ran through all of south africa looking at excess mortality. There was a week where 24k people died, 8k were expected.

So yeah, they might run out quickly, especially in UK and SA, where measures were pretty much non-existant in December compared to many other countries.

 

But do we really want to pay that prize? 120k people more than expected died in SA, Same for UK. 

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21 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

Yah well, this basically ran through all of south africa looking at excess mortality. There was a week where 24k people died, 8k were expected.

So yeah, they might run out quickly, especially in UK and SA, where measures were pretty much non-existant in December compared to many other countries.

 

But do we really want to pay that prize? 120k people more than expected died in SA, Same for UK. 

huh? Total deaths in South Africa is 48k

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2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Vaccine data reporting disrupted a bit by the holiday.  
 

Case/test/death data today and tomorrow might also be  little affected, but hospitalizations today are showing the continuation of the previous trend:

Case avg -3.5%, hosp avg -2.8%.   
 

Weekly we’re averaging -3.5% Case avg and hosp -2.8%.   
 

3 weeks from now at that rate (Mon after Raya) would be about 42k cases (implying ~500 deaths end of March) and 36k hospitalizations, quite close to record low.

what is the explanation? Is this gonna be like the flu and we'll see a new surge in the winter?

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You mean like December of 2021? Unlikely.

 

Deaths will drop another 50% in short order. To clarify 4,000 a day down to 500 a day. Teachers all need to be vaccinated ASAP. Those that don't want to go to school after being vaccinated should seek employment elsewhere

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1 hour ago, Maggie said:

what is the explanation? Is this gonna be like the flu and we'll see a new surge in the winter?

Ask different experts, get pointed to a different balance of factors.   
 

I do think it’s pretty clear that there is a strong seasonal component at this point. The other thing is that immunity from previous infections has actually gotten appreciably high, especially  in geographical regions and among individuals who are most prone to spread. Behavioral changes in response to the really high levels in many areas in early Jan likely plays a role. Lack of holiday gatherings might be a helping factor, though I’m skeptical of it being a large one.   
 

Crucially this is not due to vaccines yet. Covid19-projections shows a drop from 633k new infections daily on Jan 1 to 252k on Jan 31 (a nice 60% drop in 30 days) but estimates that 0-2% of the US population (and mostly seniors, who contribute less than average to transmission) had even 1st dose immunity during that period.  
 

So, the picture might get even better in the next couple months, as artificial immunity really starts to grow. On the other hand B117 is increasing in prevalence in the US, which is not good. Those might roughly cancel out, depending on the continued vaccine ramp-up, but unfortunately we have rather poor genomic surveillance so the state of the variants in the US isn’t as clear as we’d like.
 

Another winter wave would be very likely this year except that we should have over 70% or so of the country vaccinated, including anybody who wants one (and isn’t unable for some rare medical reason). So in practice we’re unlikely to see much of one.

Edited by WandaLegion
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Wonder what effect the weather is going to have. The low temperatures in southern states is pretty unusual.

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UK shares have taken a nice bump this week. Cineworld is up around 15% from last week

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10 hours ago, Poseidon said:

 

Yah well, this basically ran through all of south africa looking at excess mortality. There was a week where 24k people died, 8k were expected.

So yeah, they might run out quickly, especially in UK and SA, where measures were pretty much non-existant in December compared to many other countries.

 

But do we really want to pay that prize? 120k people more than expected died in SA, Same for UK. 

Measures were not nonexistent in the UK in December. UK spent Nov in lockdown and Dec in the tier system where most of the country was in a high tier and measures were quite strict. Measures in the UK have been far stricter than those in the USA.

Edited by AndyK
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27 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Measures were not nonexistent in the UK in December. UK spent Nov in lockdown and Dec in the tier system where most of the country was in a high tier and measures were quite strict. Measures in the UK have been far stricter than those in the USA.

Measures were in place but no-one was abiding by them until the sudden surge in deaths gave people's head a wobble. Too many people abused Christmas too

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3 hours ago, Chicago said:

Measures were in place but no-one was abiding by them until the sudden surge in deaths gave people's head a wobble. Too many people abused Christmas too

And they are not being abused in the USA?

 

Retail are still open, restaurants are open, yet cases and deaths are going down.

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18 hours ago, Maggie said:

huh? Total deaths in South Africa is 48k

https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa

 

Excess deaths from early may 2020 to february 6 2021 in south africa are of :

137,731 (so probably close to 140K overall)

 

South Africa estimate of 48K is maybe low but maybe the excess death are due to other cause which would be surprising considering it seem like almost all the excess occur in 2 surge that look like wave of the virus.

 

If you compare with say france:

https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4931039?sommaire=4487854#tableau-figure1

 

Estimated Covid death follow excess way more closely,  same for the USA.

 

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Vaccine and case/death data affected by holiday/weather events. Covid Hospitalizations continue their steady (actually mildly accelerating at this point) march downward.  
 

Projecting to set record low (post April 2020) covid hosp in about 1 month.

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Melbourne lockdown gets lifted at midnight. 
 

It was complete success. It worked. Lockdowns work. 
 

(Actually, it’s been pointless so far. Not a single case outside of those already isolating or their close contacts)

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Its important to consider that the official cases and deaths numbers are in most castes vast underestimates. For exampple in Russia, even offical state reprentitives 2 months back or so had admitted that the true death number there is over 180.000, yet official numbers are "only" 81.000.

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