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9 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Case and death data still seem skewed severity of the midcountry coldsnap. Hospitalization avg down 2.5% is good though. 
 

 

Positivity rate continues to drop though, which likely would be less affected by weather.

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1 hour ago, Maggie said:

I'm just reading about the South Africa variant.

 

It's sad news. It means they'll have to update the vaccine. What about those already vaccinated? They'll probably need another booster shot. It's a disaster. We'll always play catch up as i imagine more variants will emerge..

They may work on that variant at some point but the vaccine is still effective against it. Even if you get covid It will greatly diminish your symptoms similar to flu shots that don't cover all flu variants. Again South Africa's numbers are absolutely plummeting so I doubt it'll impact America as bad as people fear. 100 million vaccines next month

Edited by cdsacken
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6 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Yep exactly no matter how it's being counted their case count is absolutely plummeting 

Well, if a wave runs through whole of the country by exponential growth, it will plummet at one point an shrink the same way and SA might very well have had one of those waves that literally infected everybody.

 

Some models say, mortality for Covid is "only"0,3%.

 

SA has about 60m inhabitants. Not all 60 Mio will get it or be immune either way, so let's say 80% will get it through a wave. That's 48 Mio who will get infected. 0,3% of them dying is 144k deaths. And now look at SA Excess mortality....

 

Well, there you go.

 

Of course there are other factors to look at. F.E. more than 7 Million South Africans are HIV positive and thatfor at risk of getting severely sick. 

 

But again: Do we want to pay that high of a prize? Especially in countries with a much higher average age and thafor a higher mortality rate? 

Edited by Poseidon
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On 2/16/2021 at 1:51 PM, AndyK said:

Measures were not nonexistent in the UK in December. UK spent Nov in lockdown and Dec in the tier system where most of the country was in a high tier and measures were quite strict. Measures in the UK have been far stricter than those in the USA.

 

The UK went out of Lockdown with what? About 14k new cases/day and straight into christmas shopping, opening pubs, open schools, 1000 people capacity in theaters in the middle of winter.

 

As for the US: Their numbers are just as bad, aren't they? 500k+ excess deaths. That's just horrible and the result of the same politics and a horrible role model in charge of the country. 

 

Do people really think it's coincidence, that women lead countries fared way better during the pandemics? 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Well, if a wave runs through whole of the country by exponential growth, it will plummet at one point an shrink the same way and SA might very well have had one of those waves that literally infected everybody.

 

Some models say, mortality for Covid is "only"0,3%.

 

SA has about 60m inhabitants. Not all 60 Mio will get it or be immune either way, so let's say 80% will get it through a wave. That's 48 Mio who will get infected. 0,3% of them dying is 144k deaths. And now look at SA Excess mortality....

 

Well, there you go.

 

Of course there are other factors to look at. F.E. more than 7 Million South Africans are HIV positive and thatfor at risk of getting severely sick. 

 

But again: Do we want to pay that high of a prize? Especially in countries with a much higher average age and thafor a higher mortality rate? 

.3% if you have adequate healthcare for the whole country. They do not

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4 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

The UK went out of Lockdown with what? About 14k new cases/day and straight into christmas shopping, opening pubs, open schools, 1000 people capacity in theaters in the middle of winter.

 

As for the US: Their numbers are just as bad, aren't they? 500k+ excess deaths. That's just horrible and the result of the same politics and a horrible role model in charge of the country. 

 

Do people really think it's coincidence, that women lead countries fared way better during the pandemics? 

 

 

USA did a horrible job. Excess deaths could be under 100k had they actually tried. 

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57 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

.3% if you have adequate healthcare for the whole country. They do not

SA is a very young country, though. Same for India. Nobody really knows why numbers are down, but on the other hand, nobody knows how many people REALLY died. It's a good possibility, that it rolled through India and due to the young age of the country, overall it wasn't as severe as in older countries.

 

Only time will tell I guess. 

Edited by Poseidon
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18 hours ago, AndyK said:

Pretty much predicted by the Imperial model back in march

 

It seem to me, none of the curve in that model look like the one above (you add different curve of different scenario to have the one that happened)

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

.3% if you have adequate healthcare for the whole country. They do not

.3% I think would be more something possible if you have not a lot of your population elderly, south africa median age is 27.6 year's old with around just 5% of it's population above 65 (8.7% above 60).

 

USA median age is 38.1 year's with 65+ going on the 16.5/17%

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2 hours ago, Barnack said:

.3% I think would be more something possible if you have not a lot of your population elderly, south africa median age is 27.6 year's old with around just 5% of it's population above 65 (8.7% above 60).

 

USA median age is 38.1 year's with 65+ going on the 16.5/17%

Thank you for pointing that out again, I feel like it gets forgotten too often

 

Germany‘s median age:

total:  47.8 years
male:  46.5 years
female:  49.1 years  (2020 est.)
 
In Niger the est. combined median age for 2020 is less than 15y, means only 14.8y
 
The mini-state of the rich Monaco has the highest (they do have a bad curve too), with combined 55.4y (fem the highest worldwide with 57y)
 
For combined , amd female median age the US is only at #61 worldwide, many small, and poorer countries fare better in that regard.
 

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4 hours ago, Barnack said:

It seem to me, none of the curve in that model look like the one above (you add different curve of different scenario to have the one that happened)

The model predicted a big first wave if we did nothing. 

 

What it means is the first lockdown in the UK was completely pointless because the infections had already occured and was over the peak before lockdown happened.

 

Either that or the model was completely wrong and the WHO should never have adopted it.

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https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1362859971684237315?s=20

 

edit (text seeing as tweet isn't linking for some reason):

 

Pfizer CEO: Expect to double number of doses shipped for the U.S. from avg of 5M doses per week now starting in the next couple of weeks.

 

Pfizer is on track to provide 120M doses to US by end of March and 200M doses released by the end of May, 2 months ahead of original schedule

 

Edited by Jamiem
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This thing is gonna be pretty much wrapped up by end of April. 

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Vacc, case, death all remain heavily weather affected. Hosp remain good. %+ remains great.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Vacc, case, death all remain heavily weather affected. Hosp remain good. %+ remains great.

 

 

I don't think today's case number is especially affected by weather. From the test number (which is higher than it was even last week) it seems like a bit of backlog from the last few days was cleared. 

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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't think today's case number is especially affected by weather. From the test number (which is higher than it was even last week) it seems like a bit of backlog from the last few days was cleared. 

Very large weather effect today still. Evident in state by state nums. Not sure where the test dump is from though, might go track that down.

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3 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

This thing is gonna be pretty much wrapped up by end of April. 

Daily deaths will go down another 80% by April. 95% from peak

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12 hours ago, Jamiem said:

https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1362859971684237315?s=20

 

edit (text seeing as tweet isn't linking for some reason):

 

Pfizer CEO: Expect to double number of doses shipped for the U.S. from avg of 5M doses per week now starting in the next couple of weeks.

 

Pfizer is on track to provide 120M doses to US by end of March and 200M doses released by the end of May, 2 months ahead of original schedule

 

When will this bizarre snowstorm stop? This is severely impacting the vaccination as we have started to see the drop in number of inoculation in recent days. 

 

Going by 2m per day in an ideal world (1m first does and 1m 2nd does) , USA needs at least 14m does per week. Hope Moderna will make up the remianing supply  

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