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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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6 hours ago, Chicago said:

This is very insightful. What do you do for a loving if you don't mind me asking?


I'm a science teacher. I did a graduate degree in the area of evolutionary biology and my undergrad major was biochemistry. (so I also had courses in molecular genetics and immunology, which are highly related fields - at my alma mater those majors were collectively referred to as "BIG", for biochemistry, immunology, and genetics)

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Still some Texas effect in the 7-days, but it’s fading. 2.2M vaccines today, new record. I expect to hit that on the 7-day in early March.   
 

Hosp continue trending down 2-3% daily. 7-day cases of 68k is down  30% in 14 days, about 2.5% per day or 16% per week. I would say that we really are decelerating a little bit, which was probably inevitable as I’ve been saying. But to get so far so fast was really great, and hopefully we can keep up at least 2% daily drops for a while more now.   

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, terrestrial said:

❤️❤️❤️❤️

 

Mr. Lover Lover...

 

 

What an advert

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How trustworthy to take is that outlet?

 

 

Storage mistakes should not even be able to happen, especially as already a non-mistake had happened.

A whole’s district teachers now waiting even longer 

 

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Assuming 2m in average daily vaccine doses in March, USA could get another 60m inoculation in March, on a 1:1 ratio between first/ 2nd administration, this would mean by end-of March, at least 78m people will have some sort of protection with 52m of which fully shielded

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6 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Still some Texas effect in the 7-days, but it’s fading. 2.2M vaccines today, new record. I expect to hit that on the 7-day in early March.   
 

Hosp continue trending down 2-3% daily. 7-day cases of 68k is down  30% in 14 days, about 2.5% per day or 16% per week. I would say that we really are decelerating a little bit, which was probably inevitable as I’ve been saying. But to get so far so fast was really great, and hopefully we can keep up at least 2% daily drops for a while more now.   

 

 

 

The number of death is so much more stubborn than both new cases and hospitalization. The number of death didn't drop proportionally with both metrics even after factoring the time lagging between diagnostics but somehow stalling off quickly when new cases stop dropping.   

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France and Italy's daily infection rate remains stubbornly high at >20K.

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one nice and one of the opposite here

 

 

 

 

Here the schools are open for grade 1-4 and final grades since last Monday (was closed countrywide from mid December till 21. February) my county‘s schools will be open till Monday at least, might be closed again Tuesday, neighboring county already closed again based on Inzidenz again risen over the limits. 

Non grocery/essential stores are still closed, DIY... will open Monday in the counties the limit is not too high, other stores still do not know when they will be able to reopen (in at least one state flower stores are allowed to open Monday too), eg clothes, furniture, book stores/... earliest at 7 March, one week before they all reach 3 months of being closed.

Next Wednesday they will discuss what will be the next steps, what will be allowed when, depending on which (rising) numbers.

Yesterday’s numbers (countrywide) in comparison to one week earlier were 10% higher beside hard lockdown, I only took a look ino my county’s details, here the UK version get’s increasingly found, even a few of the South African strain are assumed (actual in testing)

 

We had a time of (too long) stagnation or way too slow fall of the 7-day Inzidenz that should not have happened based on the hard lock-down enforced here, and now arises anew beside people being at fresh air, having a more strong sun.

Fingers crossed its only a temporary setback.

 

 

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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Assuming 2m in average daily vaccine doses in March, USA could get another 60m inoculation in March, on a 1:1 ratio between first/ 2nd administration, this would mean by end-of March, at least 78m people will have some sort of protection with 52m of which fully shielded

Is that including 20-30 mill one shots from J&J?

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2 hours ago, AndyK said:

France and Italy's daily infection rate remains stubbornly high at >20K.

Do you know if there is a spread of the south african variant in these countries? Its beginning to spread here in Denmark and many are freaked out. Especially those who got the AZ vaccine

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

The number of death is so much more stubborn than both new cases and hospitalization. The number of death didn't drop proportionally with both metrics even after factoring the time lagging between diagnostics but somehow stalling off quickly when new cases stop dropping.   

This is not really true. Deaths are basically following cases lagged, it’s just that reporting disruptions hit both in real time rather than on that same lag, which produces some artificial bumps and dips in the lagged CFR. Check out the 22 day lagged CFR stats here (4th pic):

 

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Assuming 2m in average daily vaccine doses in March, USA could get another 60m inoculation in March, on a 1:1 ratio between first/ 2nd administration, this would mean by end-of March, at least 78m people will have some sort of protection with 52m of which fully shielded

Probably closer to 3M in March, and some of them J&J. Call it maybe 15M J&J, 35M first shots of Moderna/Pfizer (~70M total doses) will be about 50M new people with artificial immunity for 100M total (~70M full).

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1 hour ago, fmpro said:

Do you know if there is a spread of the south african variant in these countries? Its beginning to spread here in Denmark and many are freaked out. Especially those who got the AZ vaccine

I don't know, they said here in the UK, the SA variant is not making a lot of headway. Maybe it's been crowded out by the UK variant.

 

 

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2 hours ago, fmpro said:

Is that including 20-30 mill one shots from J&J?

Not yet, And i doubt they can provide this amount as scheduled, Actually i prefer J&J for youngster since generally even when they have covid, younger group tend to have milder symptom which mean J&J effectiveness was just fine for them.

 

2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

This is not really true. Deaths are basically following cases lagged, it’s just that reporting disruptions hit both in real time rather than on that same lag, which produces some artificial bumps and dips in the lagged CFR. Check out the 22 day lagged CFR stats here (4th pic):

 

Probably closer to 3M in March, and some of them J&J. Call it maybe 15M J&J, 35M first shots of Moderna/Pfizer (~70M total doses) will be about 50M new people with artificial immunity for 100M total (~70M full).

If TX factor is so huge, it could only mean the drop in new cases and death before Texas Stprm weren't that "sharp"

 

Even if we factor in J&J approval, the population with partial protection will still be lesser than 100m by GvK opening , considering it takes 10-14 days for vaccine to work. Add in people with nature immunity, that number could jump high to 125m-130m , about 40% of total.

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

 

But black people especially, for a variety of reasons, have much less desire to take the vaccines. So I really don't think this is something that the administration can address. 

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

I don't know, they said here in the UK, the SA variant is not making a lot of headway. Maybe it's been crowded out by the UK variant.

 

 

Okay. 2/3 of cases here now is the UK variant. Spreading like wildfire. Lets hope it keeps the SA one down to minimum

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18 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Okay. 2/3 of cases here now is the UK variant. Spreading like wildfire. Lets hope it keeps the SA one down to minimum

Yeap, same here. This is the third wave in Europe. It's gonna be baaad

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1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Yeap, same here. This is the third wave in Europe. It's gonna be baaad

We are under lockdown for the 3rd month now and have it under control here. But i know other countries in EU are going into the 3rd wave now

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48 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If TX factor is so huge, it could only mean the drop in new cases and death before Texas Stprm weren't that "sharp"

Yes, the week before this looked artificially good. We were suddenly getting like 5% improvements in daily cases/deaths after a pretty steady pace of around 3%. It was too good to be true, and it was not true, as I pointed out at the time.

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57 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

Even if we factor in J&J approval, the population with partial protection will still be lesser than 100m by GvK opening , considering it takes 10-14 days for vaccine to work. Add in people with nature immunity, that number could jump high to 125m-130m , about 40% of total.

 

There will be about 100M with natural immunity. But the lag between first dose and developing robust resistance is a quite important factor, and there is (unfortunately) some serious overlap in natural immunity and artificial immunity groups. The Youyang Gu model currently forecasts 135M with immunity on GvK OD, about 41% of total. I’m a bit more bullish based on how Pfizer and Moderna supply has been cranking up, maybe 145M or 44%.

Edited by WandaLegion

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