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9 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

If the current pace can be maintained we could be at the trough that we saw between the previous surges in about 2 more weeks. 

That would be truly excellent news. 

It’s even better than that really. Testing is much higher, so going by % positive we’ve hit our previous troughs ~now. Another half dozen weeks or so of very heavy vaccination will put us in a really good spot.    
 

 

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Summer numbers will be way better but handicapped by idiot governors like Texas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, etc

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7 hours ago, AndyK said:

Italy blocks shipment of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to Australia

 

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-9285-486a-b5ad-b015284798c8

Maybe Australia can get the 250.000 vaccines from one of your AZ factorys in the UK 🤐😁instead?

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15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Summer numbers will be way better but handicapped by idiot governors like Texas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, etc

Are they all “Republican” states?

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8 hours ago, AndyK said:

Italy blocks shipment of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to Australia

 

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-9285-486a-b5ad-b015284798c8

Australia has withdrawn from Eurovision and is expected to soon commence hostilities with Italy.

 

It doesn't really have any impact. CSL in Melbourne will be shipping a million doses a week by the end of March.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-12/covid-19-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca-adenovirus-csl-manufacturing/13140104

 

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Another good day. Cases and hosp continue trending down about 2-3% daily or about 16% weekly.   
 

 

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Spoiler

 

On 1/23/2021 at 8:59 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

Just to make some offhand predictions for the end of Q1 (so this would be looking at the data on March 31st)....

2.3M 7-day dose average. 

65K daily cases 
1300 deaths 
48k hospitalized 

 

On 1/23/2021 at 9:19 PM, WandaLegion said:

Ooh, fun.   
 

I’ll say 2.6M doses.

I’m going to go with 50k for cases.   
 

If cases are 50k, that corresponds to 11 6-day generations at R .89, so cases 24 days earlier maybe ~80k. CFR of 1.6 would give 1300 deaths. On the one hand I think we’ve seen hysteresis in death reporting in the downslopes. On the other hand vaccines are being targeted toward the population subsets with radically disproportionate death rates. I’ll go for 850 for deaths.   
 

If I have cases at ~30% I’ll just go similar for hosp —  36k.   
 

This will be a useful benchmark at the time to see how things are going vs how I thought/hoped. 67 days out is a nice middle ground.

On 2/9/2021 at 8:10 PM, WandaLegion said:

 

Gonna update:  

2.6M doses

40k cases
650 deaths

23k hosp

On 2/9/2021 at 8:44 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

I'm gonna leave my doses the same but drop the rest by about 30-40%....

 

 

2.3M 7-day dose average. 

45K daily cases 
770 deaths 
31k hospitalized 

 

 

One final update before the date itself gets too close:

3.2M doses

33k cases

550 deaths
20k hospitalized  

 

the trend here is things getting better each estimate (first two were really best guesses at the time, not highballs — I even wondered if I was being too optimistic). Unless thing turn around fast here we’re heading toward some best-of-pandemic numbers pretty soon. I doubt people have much appetite for continuing restrictions when hosp goes below 10k in April.

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Just now, WandaLegion said:
  Hide contents

 

2.3M 7-day dose average. 

45K daily cases 
770 deaths 
31k hospitalized 

 

 

One final update before the date itself gets too close:

3.2M doses

33k cases

550 deaths
20k hospitalized  

 

the trend here is things getting better each estimate (first two were really best guesses at the time, not highballs — I even wondered if I was being too optimistic). Unless thing turn around fast here we’re heading toward some best-of-pandemic numbers pretty soon. I doubt people have much appetite for continuing restrictions when hosp goes below 10k in April.

 

Yea there is more vaccine that’s going to be available than even I anticipated. Our average is already over 2 million.

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Update.

 

CSL in Melbourne will be shipping 1 million doses of locally produced AZ vaccine from 22nd March.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, fmpro said:

Maybe Australia can get the 250.000 vaccines from one of your AZ factorys in the UK 🤐😁instead?

The UK AZ factories are under supplying the UK at the moment as well.

 

in other news...

 

Germany follows UK by delaying second dose of Covid vaccine

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-follows-uk-by-delaying-second-dose-of-covid-vaccine-mk65kkh9w?

 

Quote

Germany is to rewrite its vaccination protocols to follow Britain’s example as it tries to avoid a third wave by speeding up its jabs rollout.

 

Angela Merkel has agreed to extend the interval between first and second jabs of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines to offer shots to as many people as possible.

 

Officials are also expected to allow the use of AstraZeneca on over-65s having previously restricted it to younger people.

 

Everyone will be offered one free test a week from Monday and doctors’ surgeries are to be supplied with vaccines from the end of the month to speed up the programme.

 

Merkel told a news conference that she was aware Germany was in a “precarious phase” because the more virulent British variant

 

Edited by AndyK

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9 hours ago, fmpro said:

Maybe Australia can get the 250.000 vaccines from one of your AZ factorys in the UK 🤐😁instead?

I'd be happy for our country to do it. Though right now only 20% of delivered AZ vaccines have actually been administrated in the EU compared to 80% of the delivered Pfizer vaccine so if you're going to block the vaccines, atleast use them rather than allow them to go to waste collecting dust.

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5 hours ago, AndyK said:

No confirmed data yet, but leaks indicate the Oxford vaccine is effective against the Brazil variant with no modifications needed.

Excellent if true!

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Weak day on cases, just 1.3% improvement. Hopefully an isolated blip, % positive still quite good. Hospitalizations still going great. They lag, but we would also expect to see some case/hosp decoupling now from vaccine effect.   
 

On vaccine front first day of 2.5+ Brings 7-day to 2.1M. Should start to really see J&J show up next week. Going to need continued loosening of priority over the next month to keep the flow going nicely relative to supply.

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And we already hit 3 million vaccines a day. We will hit the 4 million vaccine threshold a day this month. Not an average of course but by the end of month for sure. 

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Much better day on cases, but tests are also pretty low today.   
 

 

Banging day on vaccines, ~3M

 

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by cookie

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On 3/4/2021 at 10:31 AM, Chicago said:

I think you're confusing Boris Johnson with Dominic Cummings when it comes to setting examples. But yes, we are just a dumb country with dumb scientists that make dumb decisions to lead the vaccine race in western countries. We've always been dumb though, ever since having to stop other countries from trying to achieve world domination.... twice. It really took its toll on our state of mind.

 

Try not sounding like every other teenage uni student

 

 

This is extremely hilarious coming from a british person :lol:

 

Since you know probably very well that the British Empire was the biggest in Human History and the countless countrys it invaded and subdued didnt have much say in that.

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4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

This is extremely hilarious coming from a british person :lol:

 

Since you know probably very well that the British Empire was the biggest in Human History and the countless countrys it invaded and subdued didnt have much say in that.

I assure you the irony does not go unnoticed. We don't have the best of histories going back hundreds of years, like most of Europe if we look at the Spanish, French and Portuguese. Its not even like America always housed Americans. Interestingly the world wars saw to it that our empire and wealth was corrected, something many thought needed to happen

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1 hour ago, Chicago said:

I assure you the irony does not go unnoticed. We don't have the best of histories going back hundreds of years, like most of Europe if we look at the Spanish, French and Portuguese. Its not even like America always housed Americans. Interestingly the world wars saw to it that our empire and wealth was corrected, something many thought needed to happen

 

Honestly, every country in the world has dark chapters in their history. Even the Swiss, if you dig deep enough. 

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