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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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9 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Yes, vaccinating teachers instead of 80 year olds is the most stupid idea imaginable.

I agree with that. Protect the ones i most danger of death first. We do that here too.

But im still not convinced that its apples to apples due to so much difference in doses in arms

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11 minutes ago, AndyK said:

 

That is fantastic news. Lets hops they can scale up production quick

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36 minutes ago, fmpro said:

I agree with that. Protect the ones i most danger of death first. We do that here too.

But im still not convinced that its apples to apples due to so much difference in doses in arms

The less doses you have the more need to target the people at most risk. Italy have 15% vaccinated, if they had used a single dose and targeted over 80s first, their death chart would be on a downward trajectory.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/19cb0b7d-cc0b-4193-8808-7b39e04e9f93

 

Canada is making the same mistake.

 

 

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11 hours ago, AndyK said:

Profile of non aged-ordered vaccination strategy - Italy

italy-png.1493348

 

Profile of strict age-ordered vaccination strategy - UK

 

uk-png.1493349

 

Canada is using the Italy strategy.:wintf:


Big part of the problem is that Italy has a much lower total proportion of people vaccinated. (regarding the comparison to the UK)

Canada has actually been doing a solely age-priority strategy until very recently, the switch to also prioritizing essential workers is underway based on scientific advice - modelling shows that now since most of the very elderly are protected, deaths will be reduced the most overall by also slowing down transmission in the younger essential workers that are main vector for continued spread.
 

10 hours ago, AndyK said:

The less doses you have the more need to target the people at most risk. Italy have 15% vaccinated, if they had used a single dose and targeted over 80s first, their death chart would be on a downward trajectory.


It's worth noting that more than 80% of people over 80 have been vaccinated here, and around 60% of 70+. Overall vaccination rate here is similarly 15% of adults. Also, before eligibility was lowered below age 70, appointments were actually being unfilled in Toronto.

Admittedly, the provincial government isn't implementing mixed-priority vaccination perfectly - there's no good epidemiological reason to target teachers specifically among all essential workers. That said, right now in Ontario they've lowered age eligibility to 50 based on living in high-risk neighbourhoods and the next phase will involve essential workers more broadly. Overall, it's tough to balance what portion of vaccines should go based on highest mortality risk and highest transmission risk.

Edited by Jason
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23 hours ago, AndyK said:

We are down to under 2000 cases total, 99.3% of which are UK variant. So not really, UK variant seems to crowd all the others out.

 

Spoke too soon....

 

 

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@AndyK

Addition to my post above, regarding why I don't think the comparison with what Canada is doing and what Italy has done is accurate.

Here's a graph of cases and deaths for Canada, on a log scale. You can see that a combination of premature re-opening and the new variants is causing case counts to soar, from around 2,000 daily in late Feb to close to 10,000 daily now. Over that time frame, daily deaths have fallen from around 50 a day to around 20 a day. You can see a clear decoupling of deaths from cases in the graph, beginning in late February.

QMBtKHQ.png

Compare that to a similar graph for Italy. Italy's cases have risen less dramatically than ours over that period, from around 10,000 to 20,000 per day, although falling slightly recently. But no obvious decoupling from deaths can be observed, going from around 300 to 500 per day over that time period,

uBdNdvG.png

Canada has already vaccinated the most vulnerable at this point and reduced deaths as much as possible among the elderly. Given the rapidly rising caseloads, the best strategy for us from this point is to start prioritizing individuals at high risk of transmission. (based on where they live, and following that based on essential work)

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42 minutes ago, AndyK said:

 

What an odd remark !

Must be in remarks to fear of variants. But we have to live with them for a long long time and have to open up and see what happens

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48 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Must be in remarks to fear of variants. But we have to live with them for a long long time and have to open up and see what happens

Yeah we can't stay locked in forever. If vaccines don't work then it has to be herd immunity I'm afraid 

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1 minute ago, AndyK said:

Not good at all,

 

Without AZ and J&J, the world vaccine programme is going to take a huge hit.

 

The boss of Pfizer is seeing $$$$$$ roll before his eyes. 

Yeah. Looks like mRNA is the future

 

Fuuuuuuuck

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1 hour ago, Chicago said:

Yeah we can't stay locked in forever. If vaccines don't work then it has to be herd immunity I'm afraid 

But does`ent vaccines have bigger effect than those who were infected naturally and got “immune”?

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1 minute ago, Menor said:

6 out of 7 million...you have to be kidding me.

Happens after 1-2 weeks. There could be more over the next week or 2 from those 7 mill jabs

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1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

This may impact biden's goal to achieve 200m shot in his first 100 days in office

Could still happen. It was a very unambitious goal he knew they would hit easy

 

if we don`t use it here in Denmark along with AZ it would set back our program 2-4 months

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I still think it's down to dosing levels. I doubt the mRNA ones are generating significantly different types of antibodies to any other vaccine otherwise they wouldn't work.

 

AZ vaccine efficacy went up to 90% when they used a half dose in the trials.

 

MHRA needs to approve Novavax ASAP.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Menor said:

6 out of 7 million...you have to be kidding me.

Honestly at this point I totally understand why people come up with conspiracies that the government wants to control them. This is patently absurd. 

This is a Republican's dream. I thought America was smarter than that, however I shouldn't have been so naive.

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