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Posted (edited)

We got to know about COVID in mid Jan 2020.

 

How did it took 2 more months for it to start wreaking havoc everywhere in world, in a world that is super connected, and then it was super duper instantly everywhere in world, that too after China was closed for 2 months and getting ready to open.

 

I am being a noob here prolly, just an after thought.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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15 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Indian variant

I am saying not that because of India, for matter of fact I criticize India most here.

 

Why are variants called out by country name but saying its Chinese virus was wrong. It was UK variant in winter. Just asking.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am saying not that because of India, for matter of fact I criticize India most here.

 

Why are variants called out by country name but saying its Chinese virus was wrong. It was UK variant in winter. Just asking.

Easier to know where to block flights from I guess.

 

Its funny the SNP leader in Scotland made the same comment, deciding to name the Indian Variant 'April 02' but in the same statement referred to the Kent Variant lol. She is known to be biased and a little thick though. Its better than calling them b713.2103

 

Also there's nothing wrong with calling it the China Virus but personally i prefer Kung Flu and Vindaflu. No reason we can't have fun with the names. Cant find a good name for the Kent variant yet but I'm all ears

Edited by Chicago
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18 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Just so you know the Epoch Times is, quite literally, run by a far right group that, if it isn't a cult, is close enough as not to make much difference in the end.  Even if one doesn't want to think of them as a cult, they are a bunch of people who push disinformation, shamelessly traffic in QAnon conspiracies and, as I check, have embraced anti-vaccine conspiracies.

 

The actual news story about a NZ court might be correct (haven't checked), but their spin and commentary is one million percent bullshit.

 

Better sources out there to let us know about this, is more or less what I am saying.

 

*checks*

 

Yeah, what I thought.  'reasonably arguable that the rollout was problematic'.

 

 

So what she appears to be saying is that the current law as written potentially might not allow for such a large class of people to be given shots under currently drafted emergency use.

 

If the Epoch Times article has anything else to say, I frankly don't give a damn.  I refuse to even give them a hate click as it still rewards their outrageous behavior.

 

EDITED:::

 

Ah, I see @cdsacken beat me to the punch.  That what I get for researching and trying to carefully word my reply. :lol: 

 

Mine was short and sweet, yours was long and eloquent. Good com bo

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Fortunately we are finally getting to where we were basically at the beginning of the summer of last year.

Avg cases in the US is around 25K per day. Avg deaths is around 560 per day. That's still higher than we need it to be but is much better than just a few months ago.

 

A bad flu year avg about 140 deaths per day. An avg flu year avg about 100 deaths per day. Since most of that occurs within a smaller time period during flu season the avg number of deaths per day would be in roughly the 250 per day area. IMO that should be the target. So that still means we need to reduce the numbers by another 50% to get to that level.

 

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Taking a look at the rolling seven day averages in Cali, our numbers are the lowest they've been since mid-April... 2020.

 

Daily New Cases: 1,204 [last seen: April 19th, 2020 - 1,189]

Daily Deaths:            35 [last seen: April 6th, 2020 - 34]

 

Accoding to a tracker over at NPR:

Fully Vaccinated Adults:     52.5% 

At Least One Shot [Adults]: 68.5%

 

If some of the stories about medium to long term benefits about getting even just one shot of Pfizer/Moderna is at all accurate, California is well on its way to getting herd immunity.

 

Now the proviso to that is that California is a honking huge state with lots of regional variation.  So, say, there might be more of a herd immunity in Los Angeles than the Central Valley.

 

===

 

As for nationally, the seven day rolling vaccination average is ticking back up again. 👍

Whether it's people deciding to get a vaccine shot thanks to the CDC relaxing mask guidelines [have both shots?  No longer need a mask and go be your bad bad self!] or vaccine lotteries or more age groups being opened up, it's good to see the uptick again.

 

Memorial Day Weekend will probably muck with the seven day average a bit, but should stabilize fairly quickly.

 

So, looking good. 👍  (Just need the Deep South to get with the program, but that's another post for another day. 😕

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

We got to know about COVID in mid Jan 2020.

 

How did it took 2 more months for it to start wreaking havoc everywhere in world, in a world that is super connected, and then it was super duper instantly everywhere in world, that too after China was closed for 2 months and getting ready to open.

 

I am being a noob here prolly, just an after thought.


This is how exponential growth works. Throughout the time from the earliest known cases in China in December through to March, rates of growth in areas where no measures were being taken to control it were pretty consistent with an R of about 2.5, or very roughly a tripling of cases per week.

I could share the weekly numbers but those aren't hard to look up, the problem is that very big numbers are hard to actually understand. There's an analogy of water filling a stadium that's been passed around the internet, I don't know the original source, but I'm grabbing this particular version of it from a post made last March on Medium:
 

Quote

The best example to explain exponential growth is as follows: picture yourself chained to the uppermost row of a football stadium at 12 pm, then, a drop of water is placed in the middle of the field, doubling every minute. How much time do you have to get free? And when will you realise that it is urgent?
 

The answer surprises many. After six minutes, the water fills a thimble. After 45 minutes, 7% of the stadium is filled. The “hockey-stick” showing the exponential growth arrives at 12.49 pm and fills the entire stadium. In other words, you’ll have 45 minutes where it looks as if everything is under control and only 4 minutes where you see the indications of it being too late. 


The lockdown in China did of course have the effect of reversing that exponential growth within China, we see that other places that implemented lockdowns or other measures to prevent spread were very successful. It's worth noting that the original strain with an R0 of 2.5 only required 60% reduction in spread to bring R below 1, which would then result in exponential decay.

A 60% reduction of spread can even be achieved without lockdowns or test/trace/isolate, as was observed in Japan.

But of course from the period from January to mid-March, Western countries were doing essentially nothing to curb spread, to the extent of even giving counterproductive advice.
 

 

22 hours ago, Chicago said:

Looking more and more likely the virus came from a Chinese Lab


I don't have the time to address this in full right now. But in short, no. The most parsimonious explanation remains natural transfer from bats via an intermediate host; we can't eliminate the possibility of an escape from a lab sample but there's no evidence to suggest it. China's secrecy has to do with them wanting to avoid proof the virus is of Chinese natural origin - the CCP is pushing the story in both national and social media that the virus came from the US. I wish I were kidding.

It's worth noting that the Wuhan lab had collaborated with Western scientists and shared many of their samples or sequence data, SARS-CoV-2 does not exist among that data.

I presume you're aware of this, but in case anyone else isn't  - an engineered lab origin is completely preposterous.

Edited by Jason
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Posted (edited)

So, the coronavirus came from a lab in China, right? I mean...it looks more and more likely.

 

I find it crazy that the US media immediately dismissed this theory last year...

Edited by Maggie
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On 5/25/2021 at 12:51 AM, Jason said:

I presume you're aware of this, but in case anyone else isn't  - an engineered lab origin is completely preposterous.

Could you explain that one, if they made gain of function experiment by letting variant inside mammals (furet?) reproduce and change for a while and one that gained a function escape, we would be able to tell the difference from that one from one that would have done the same in nature ?

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10 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Unfortunately paywall, so can't read what it says......

 

 

 

Scientists in Germany claim to have cracked the cause of the rare blood clots linked to the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccines and believe the jabs could be tweaked to stop the reaction happening altogether.

Rolf Marschalek, a professor at Goethe university in Frankfurt who has been leading research into the rare condition since March, said his research showed that the problem sat with the adenovirus vectors that both vaccines use to deliver the spike protein of the Sars-Cov-2 virus into the body.

The delivery mechanism means the vaccines send the spike protein into the cell nucleus rather than the cytosol fluid found inside the cell where the virus normally produces proteins, Marschalek and other scientists said in a preprint paper released on Wednesday.

Once inside the cell nucleus, certain parts of the spike protein splice, or split apart, creating mutant versions, which are unable to bind to the cell membrane where important immunisation takes place. The floating mutant proteins are instead secreted by cells into the body, triggering blood clots in roughly one in 100,000 people, according to Marschalek’s theory.

In contrast, mRNA-based vaccines, such as the jabs developed by BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna, deliver the spike’s genetic material to the cell fluid and it never enters the nucleus.

“When these . . . virus genes are in the nucleus they can create some problems,” Marschalek told the Financial Times.

The rare blood-clotting reaction that has disrupted the rollout of the AstraZeneca and J&J shots has been recorded in 309 of the 33m people who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine in the UK, causing 56 deaths. In Europe, at least 142 people have experienced the blood clots out of 16m recipients of the vaccine.

In response, use of the AstraZeneca jab has been restricted or suspended in more than a dozen countries. J&J began the rollout of its vaccine in Europe with a warning on its label in April after a brief delay because of the concerns.

But Marschalek believes there is a straight forward “way out” if the vaccine developers can modify the sequence of the spike protein to prevent it splitting apart.

J&J had already contacted Marschalek’s lab to ask for guidance and was looking at ways to adapt its vaccine to prevent splicing, he said.

The spike protein in the J&J shot was already less prone to “splicing” than the spike protein in the AstraZeneca jab, making the reaction less common, according to Marschalek. In the US, eight of the 7.4m recipients of the J&J shot have reported the rare reaction.

“[J&J] is trying to optimise its vaccine now,” he said. “With the data we have in our hands we can tell the companies how to mutate these sequences, coding for the spike protein in a way that prevents unintended splice reactions.”

J&J said: “We are supporting continued research and analysis of this rare event as we work with medical experts and global health authorities. We look forward to reviewing and sharing data as it becomes available.”

Some scientists have cautioned that Marschalek’s theory is one among many, and that further evidence is needed to substantiate his claims.

“There is evidence missing to show the causal chain from the splice . . . of the spike protein to the thrombosis events,” said Johannes Oldenburg, professor of transfusion medicine at the university of Bonn. “This is still a hypothesis that needs to be proven by experimental data.”

Marschalek said he had presented his lab’s findings to the German government’s Paul-Ehrlich Institute and to the country’s advisory body on vaccination and immunisation.

“They were surprised by our findings, because no one was thinking about the splice problem,” 

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1 hour ago, Maggie said:

So, the coronavirus came from a lab in China, right? I mean...it looks more and more likely.

 

I find it crazy that the US media immediately dismissed this theory last year...


No. The purported reasons for it looking more and more likely aren't even close to any kind of smoking gun. A big part of the argument for why we should be suspicious has to do with pointing at China's secrecy regarding viral samples from the lab etc. Yes, there's a few scientists that have suggested it looks more likely recently, but there's a great many more who still think otherwise. Who for some reason are being mostly ignored right now.

Yes, China is being secretive, but the reason for that is almost certainly because the story they are trying to sell to their own people is that the virus is from the United States/Europe. That sounds absolutely ridiculous to us, and it is, but it relies on the intermediate virus between the current closest Chinese sample and SARS-CoV-2 not being found.

Three really important points haven't changed:

1) Every virus that has ever infected humans has at some point a zoonotic origin, even viruses like smallpox which eventually lost the ability to infect other hosts. So this should be your default explanation for the origin for a novel virus. For this virus specifically, something like 3% of people living near caves in rural southern China have been infected with bat coronaviruses - crossover happens all the time, mutations to gain human transmissibility were basically a ticking time bomb for this group of viruses. One that already happened with SARS-CoV-1.

2) There are Western scientists who collaborated with the WIV and its scientists for years, and they shared many samples/sequences of coronaviruses for years. The SARS-CoV-2 sequence does not exist among those sequences (2000+). If the WIV had ever had a sample of SARS-CoV-2, its sequence would almost certainly have been published, just like it did RaTG13, the wild coronavirus known to be closest in sequence. (but far too distant to be the direct origin)

3) Not a single scientist from the lab, nor any of its Western collaborators, have come forward, even anonymously, to refute or even undermine the statement from its lead coronavirus researcher that the lab never cultured its samples, with the exception of three relatives of SARS-CoV-1. That makes a lab leak all but impossible.

 

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Could you explain that one, if they made gain of function experiment by letting variant inside mammals (furet?) reproduce and change for a while and one that gained a function escape, we would be able to tell the difference from that one from one that would have done the same in nature ?

 

If viral samples were allowed to naturally mutate inside a closer relative to humans, then no we would not actually be able to tell the difference. But that wouldn't be an engineered origin, although it would be a lab origin.

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Posted (edited)

Some articles say there's a  possibility that the virus may have started in animals, was then studied in a lab, and somehow accidentally escaped and infected humans?

Edited by Maggie
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8 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Some articles say there's a  possibility that the virus may have started in animals, was then studied in a lab, and somehow accidentally escaped and infected humans?


Sure, it's *possible*, in theory. But very, very unlikely, given that there's no record of the virus ever being held by the lab in question (despite 2000+ records existing for other various bat coronaviruses), and that the lab in question was not culturing its samples.

None of the articles I've seen come close to addressing those points in any satisfactory way.

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27 minutes ago, Jason said:

But that wouldn't be an engineered origin, although it would be a lab origin.

That semantic is somewhat important, but I thought by lab made was something close to that people had in mind, start with a wild bat flu, made it gain function in the lab and that now augmented (from a human POV) escape.

 

I would not use people involved in the situation not talking or sharing proof has a big impossible sign, if the amount of people in the actual know is relatively small (under 250).

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