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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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9 hours ago, AndyK said:

Normally when you plot exponentially growth on a log scale you get a straight line.

 

When you plot the Netherlands growth on a log scale, it still looks like it needs to be plotted on a log scale.

 

 

But at least hospitalization and death still remain low

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18 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

But at least hospitalization and death still remain low

They only have 31% vaccinated. Hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a couple of weeks.

 

Hopefully this is just young people and it doesn't cause to much damage.

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2 hours ago, grim22 said:

WHAT THE FUCK 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

It's the ignore the pandemic and maybe it goes away approach.

 

It's more: HOW DARE THE GOVERNMENT TRY TO RAISE MUH KIDS!!!!!

 

Not that that is better (it absolutely isn't) but it's basically because a bunch of politicians in TN freaked the fuck out that the state was trying to encourage teenagers to get vaccinated against the 'rona without going through their parents.

 

That caused a chain reaction of firings and other events (like no longer holding vaccination drives at schools) which basically culminated in "Fine, we don't want you to threaten to yank our funding/program, so we won't contact minors AT ALL anymore".

 

Does mean that trying to encourage vaccination at places where teenagers hang out is pretty much off the table. And it's gonna lead to a lot of preventable illnesses (and naturally some death). 

 

But this is pretty logical conclusion to the whole "Parents AND ONLY PARENTS should ever make any health decision when it comes to children" philosophy that has been percolating under the surface for quite a long time.  Not exactly more than a hop skip and a jump from saying "kids under the age of 18 can't get an abortion/contraceptions/sex ed without parental consent" and saying "kids under the age of 18 shouldn't be encouraged to get vaccinated without going through parents first"*.  Does mean you are treating teenagers like infants, but, well, the philosophy is a pretty consistent one.

* NOTE:  I didn't even say "get a vaccination without parental consent", as that's a much thornier issue.  In fact, most states do require parental consent for vaccinations, for mostly obvious reasons. it's simply encouraging minors to seek vaccination is freaking some folks out.

 

NB:  Yes, the undercurrent here is, "Parents should be able to prevent/discourage their kids from getting a COVID vaccine even if the kids want one". Or, rather, IMO the real undercurrent is "kids shouldn't be 'corrupted' by outsiders to go against parent's wishes". But, well again, that's what happens when basic health policy gets folded into a culture war. 

 

Edited by Porthos
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In case folks think I am being unkind (and I actually tried to word this to keep some, but admittedly not nearly all, of my editorializing out of this), allow me to quote from the linked article:

 

Quote

'No proactive outreach regarding routine vaccines'

After the health department's internal COVID-19 report was circulated on Friday, the rollback of vaccine outreach was further detailed in a Monday email from agency Chief Medical Officer Dr. Tim Jones.

 

Jones told staff they should conduct "no proactive outreach regarding routine vaccines" and "no outreach whatsoever regarding the HPV vaccine." 

 

Staff were also told not to do any "pre-planning" for flu shots events at schools. Any information released about back-to-school vaccinations should come from the Tennessee Department of Education, not the Tennessee Department of Health, Jones wrote.

 

"Any kinds of informational sheets or other materials that we make available for dissemination should have the TDH logo removed," Jones wrote.

 

 

Quote

The health department did not confirm nor dispute the existence of Jones’ email. In a written statement, department spokesperson Sarah Tanksley credited the state’s past outreach for high vaccination rates among children — for example, 95% of kindergarteners  were fully vaccinated last school year.

 

EMAILS: Health officials halt vaccine events for teens amid conservative pressure

 

Tanksley said the agency is now responding to “an intense national conversation that is affecting how many families evaluate vaccinations in general," and is planning more market research into the roots of vaccine hesitancy

 

“Tennessee is on solid footing when it comes to childhood immunizations and will continue to keep information and programming in place for parents,” Tanksley said. “We are simply mindful of how certain tactics could hurt that progress.”

 

Normally, the health department regularly advocates for vaccinating kids against many diseases without controversy. 

 

For example, in 2019 the department published at least 15 tweets that either explicitly recommended minors be vaccinated or featured a child in a pro-vaccine image or video. The agency's outreach campaign recommended vaccination against flu, measles, mumps, rubella and human papillomavirus, or HPV, among others.

 

 

Decisions to ratchet back outreach comes amid pressure from conservative lawmakers, who have embraced misinformation about the coronavirus vaccine, said Dr. Michelle Fiscus, Tennessee's former top vaccine official.

 

Fiscus was fired without explanation on Monday. Fiscus said she was scapegoated to appease lawmakers, who had described routine vaccine outreach as “reprehensible.”

 

(The bit about the HPV vaccine is a bit of a tell, but that's another post for another thread for another day)

 

Basically they will say that they aren't trying to stop vaccination drives for kids; just that they are going to make any and all contact about reminders to get vaccinated through parents/schools.  Which is... Well... I think I've said my piece on that already.  And if I haven't, the subtext isn't hard to suss out.

 

There are also some unintended dominoes falling from this:

 

Quote

No more COVID-19 vaccine events at schools

Until now, the county health officials under the purview of the Department of Health have sometimes used schools as venues for coronavirus vaccination drives, and at least some of those events have primarily served adults, not minors.

 

For example, two weeks ago health officials held a two-day vaccination drive at Woodlawn Elementary School, outside of Clarksville. Under the agency’s new rules, events like this will no longer be permitted across most of the state.

 

This shift is worrisome to Brian Haile, the CEO of Neighborhood Health, a group of nonprofit clinics providing vaccines in and around Nashville.

In many rural Tennessee counties, school gymnasiums are one of the few venues large enough to hold a vaccination event indoors, with air conditioning, with enough space for social distancing, Haile said.

 

“I’m not saying it’s impossible,” Haile said, “but one of the things this is going to do is really limit access to vaccines in rural areas.”

 

Tanksley, the health department spokesperson, confirmed the agency would end COVID-19 vaccination events at schools, in a part because of low demand, and said “no decisions had been made” about offering other vaccines at schools.

 

Tanksley said the agency ended events on school property “out of an abundance of caution” because vaccination efforts were “perceived by some to give the wrong impression regarding parental consent.”

 

“While the location may change,” Tanksley said, “the effort to vaccinate individuals who choose to receive it continues.

 

And so on.

 

Lots more at the source article if one wishes to read more about this.

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26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

In case folks think I am being unkind (and I actually tried to word this to keep some, but admittedly not nearly all, of my editorializing out of this), allow me to quote from the linked article:

 

 

 

(The bit about the HPV vaccine is a bit of a tell, but that's another post for another thread for another day)

 

Basically they will say that they aren't trying to stop vaccination drives for kids; just that they are going to make any and all contact about reminders to get vaccinated through parents/schools.  Which is... Well... I think I've said my piece on that already.  And if I haven't, the subtext isn't hard to suss out.

 

There are also some unintended dominoes falling from this:

 

 

And so on.

 

Lots more at the source article if one wishes to read more about this.

 

 

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On 7/5/2021 at 3:15 PM, Chicago said:

 

We are just more reliabile with our figures than everyone else. Unless you believe France, who are having a similar number of daily deaths to us truly only have 2500 new cases (10% of ours)

 

We are just a month or two behind in Germany, its already changing trajectory here and roughly looks like its following the UK course with higher death rate because older people are somewhat less likely to get the vaccine here. (Similar to the other waves and spreading of alpha variant and vaccination etc.)

Delta has (and is) taken (taking) over here (above 50%, in two weeks probably above 90%);

wow-case-number-growth is 40% or so.

 

In Lower Saxony 88% of people above the age of 60 have received a first shot, which seems to be the 2nd highest rate in Germany (and like 67% have gotten a second shot, which is like the 5th or 6th lowest rate) - we were really slow in the beginning but it has gotten significantly faster). Overall it seems to be like 80% and 70%, while rates in the UK are way above 90% (according to the NHS it looks like 95% or so of the people above 50 have gotten both shots), that probably at least compared to Germany explains a big part of the difference.

 

And testing rate is far harder to determine without a NHS (its kinda more chaotic in Germany, every county tracks the lateral flow test separately and most have an absolutely awful online presence where you can't find anything and there is a chaos of public and private testing organisations that I don't want to get into), so only PCR-tests all numbers are central tracked and easily accessible and there Germany is using only around 30% of the possible capacity (ouch). And that explains the rest.

 

But what the NHS (did and) does is pretty impressive.

 

 

And state vaccinations rates are growing apart here too.

Bremen has the highest with 68% first shot rate,

Saxony the lowest with 49%.

though part of that could be explained by infection rates (in the second and third wave), which where significantly lower in the north.

Second shots are way closer (between 40 and 48%), because the distance has really started to grow since start of July.

Edited by Taruseth
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12 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

We are just a month or two behind in Germany, its already changing trajectory here and roughly looks like its following the UK course with higher death rate because older people are somewhat less likely to get the vaccine here. (Similar to the other waves and spreading of alpha variant and vaccination etc.)

Delta has (and is) taken (taking) over here (above 50%, in two weeks probably above 90%);

wow-case-number-growth is 40% or so.

 

In Lower Saxony 88% of people above the age of 60 have received a first shot, which seems to be the 2nd highest rate in Germany (and like 67% have gotten a second shot, which is like the 5th or 6th lowest rate) - we were really slow in the beginning but it has gotten significantly faster). Overall it seems to be like 80% and 70%, while rates in the UK are way above 90% (according to the NHS it looks like 95% or so of the people above 50 have gotten both shots), that probably at least compared to Germany explains a big part of the difference.

 

And testing rate is far harder to determine without a NHS (its kinda more chaotic in Germany, every county tracks the lateral flow test separately and most have an absolutely awful online presence where you can't find anything and there is a chaos of public and private testing organisations that I don't want to get into), so only PCR-tests all numbers are central tracked and easily accessible and there Germany is using only around 30% of the possible capacity (ouch). And that explains the rest.

 

But what the NHS (did and) does is pretty impressive.

 

 

And state vaccinations rates are growing apart here too.

Bremen has the highest with 68% first shot rate,

Saxony the lowest with 49%.

though part of that could be explained by infection rates (in the second and third wave), which where significantly lower in the north.

Second shots are way closer (between 40 and 48%), because the distance has really started to grow since start of July.

German efficiency is quite revered here in the UK.

 

Doesn't sound like it's quite as perfect as it is made out to be.

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We are at 65/42 % here in Denmark and are vaccinating 2*0,75% of the population each day. First and second jabs.

Still we can`t keep that Delta away. 300% growth in infection cases in less than 2 weeks.

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46 minutes ago, fmpro said:

We are at 65/42 % here in Denmark and are vaccinating 2*0,75% of the population each day. First and second jabs.

Still we can`t keep that Delta away. 300% growth in infection cases in less than 2 weeks.

Take care. I hope you are vaccinated. I would say wear mask in among crowds or indoors with strangers. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Take care. I hope you are vaccinated. I would say wear mask in among crowds or indoors with strangers. 

 
Thanks buddy. 2nd jab on monday so i hope i`m good. 
But this Delta…. Its crazy.
And people who won`t get vaccinated are even crazier(sorry)

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My parents hired a contractor recently who's a COVID denier and called it a bullshit hoax.

 

He's currently in the hospital with COVID.

 

How does the saying go?

 

29c.gifv

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

My parents hired a contractor recently who's a COVID denier and called it a bullshit hoax.

 

He's currently in the hospital with COVID.

 

How does the saying go?

 

29c.gifv

 

It sadly does not matter. We instead get

 

VXJNGVWQXBCLLGPBCBXESRVT3U.JPG

 

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59 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

My parents hired a contractor recently who's a COVID denier and called it a bullshit hoax.

 

He's currently in the hospital with COVID.

 

How does the saying go?

 

29c.gifv

It sounds like your parents gave him covid

 

Well hopefully he pulls through so he can warn others like him

Edited by Chicago
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2 hours ago, fmpro said:

 
Thanks buddy. 2nd jab on monday so i hope i`m good. 
But this Delta…. Its crazy.
And people who won`t get vaccinated are even crazier(sorry)

I read a medical paper today about delta variant, at last someone had actually done some viral research on why it's spreading faster rather than just relying on case statistics.

 

The variant is not more transmissible as such but it's replication rate is 1000 times faster. Peoples viral loads are so huge that there is much more in the air.

 

Had to do a double take on those numbers. That's why both doses are needed, you need high antibody levels to stop it before it takes hold.

 

https://virological.org/t/viral-infection-and-transmission-in-a-large-well-traced-outbreak-caused-by-the-delta-sars-cov-2-variant/724

Edited by AndyK
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

It sadly does not matter. We instead get

 

VXJNGVWQXBCLLGPBCBXESRVT3U.JPG

 

 

 

One of the main reasons I'm moving out of Florida. 

 

giphy.gif

 

34 minutes ago, Chicago said:

It sounds like your parents gave him covid

 

Well hopefully he pulls through so he can warn others like him

They're fully vaccinated, so not likely!

Edited by WrathOfHan
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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

I read a medical paper today about delta variant, at last someone had actually done some viral research on why it's spreading faster rather than just relying on case statistics.

 

The variant is not more transmissible as such but it's replication rate is 1000 times faster. Peoples viral loads are so huge that there is much more in the air.

 

Had to do a double take on those numbers. That's why both doses are needed, you need high antibody levels to stop it before it takes hold.

 

https://virological.org/t/viral-infection-and-transmission-in-a-large-well-traced-outbreak-caused-by-the-delta-sars-cov-2-variant/724


1000 times 😮  Thats just…..

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

I read a medical paper today about delta variant, at last someone had actually done some viral research on why it's spreading faster rather than just relying on case statistics.

 

The variant is not more transmissible as such but it's replication rate is 1000 times faster. Peoples viral loads are so huge that there is much more in the air.


I'm not sure you understand what is meant by transmissibility - if a variant is more likely to pass from one person to another (all other things being equal), then it's more transmissible. This is a property inferred from case statistics - not calculated from an inherent viral property. There are different reasons why a virus can be more transmissible, such as causing higher viral loads, or being better at evading the immune system etc.

It's also worth noting that the higher transmissibility of the delta variant hasn't just been inferred from case statistics but also numerous cases of transmissions occurring with only fleeting contact, something that wasn't observed with the original variant.

It doesn't make sense to say that the "delta variant is not more transmissible as such". The only way this could be true would be if somehow in every single country where we've seen it spread faster, this was an artifact of random chance (some superspreader went to a huge wedding etc.) and not because it is actually more likely to transmit. But at this point, given the scale of the spread and how many countries we've seen it in, that is vanishingly unlikely - essentially impossible.

What the aforementioned paper provides is an explanation of why the variant is more transmissible.

Edited by Jason
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