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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Got my 2nd shot two days ago and these last two days have been absolutely terrible. Yesterday I had a fever and really bad muscale aches and today I'm still seriously fatigued and have been staying in bed for practically the whole day. Besides a pain in the arm for a day, the 1st shot didn't wasn't bad so I wonder why the 2nd shot had a worse effect on me.


My 17 year old got his 2nd yesterday. Pfizer. Zero side effects other than sore arm.

Im having my 2nd next week. I hope it runs in the family

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7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

More countries should do this

 

 

unfortunately this is so difficult to be implemented here in USA. Not even in Democratic state.  In USA, authorities have almost exhausted all tools to motivate or boost vaccination rate. 56% first dose coverage is still not high enough. Ideally should be 70% or at least 60-65%. 

Edited by titanic2187
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My kids got double Pfizer both times they had basically no reactions, my wife and I got AstraZeneca first and Moderna second, the first shot was really bad for a day or so but the second shot was fine. 

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6 hours ago, Jason said:


It's well documented that the rate of growth in a population without restrictions is at least a tripling every week, closer to a quadrupling (The R0 of ~2.5 is for a transmission time of about 5 days, extend that to a week and you get about 3.6x)

When you use the correct exponential growth assumptions you need only about 9-10 weeks to get to 200,000 cases. That also assumes only a single introduction at the very beginning, which is unlikely. Increasing the number of introductions in the first week from 1 to just three cuts off an entire week from that estimate, if you have around 10 initial introductions in the first week, that cuts the estimate by 2 weeks.

First introduction was unlikely to have been earlier than late December.

It triples? That's insane. So would it be safe to assume the virus will spread 3x faster when countries ease all restrictions? 

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On 7/17/2021 at 7:55 PM, Chicago said:

It triples? That's insane. So would it be safe to assume the virus will spread 3x faster when countries ease all restrictions? 


So, in the absence of reduced social contact, the rate at which the virus spread is going to mostly depend on the level of immunity in the population. The R0 of the Delta variant (the number of people infected by one person in a naive population) is estimated to be ~6 - this is a statistical inference, since naive populations don't exist. If a naive population did exist, the Delta variant could theoretically spread extremely rapidly in the asbsence of social restrictions. (For comparison, the original variant had an R0 of "just" ~2.5).

But if you have a population where 50% of people are immune (note: immune, not merely vaccinated), then the number of people infected by one person is going to be just 3 instead of 6. If 75% of the population is immune, then that number drops to 1.5. At >83.3% of the population being immune, then the number drops below 1 and "herd immunity" exists.

Note that in the absence of a highly effective vaccine campaign, herd immunity doesn't *quite* form naturally because susceptible individuals are continually added to the population via birth, and because of temporal and spatial heterogeneity in disease spread. (Basically, periods of time and locations where disease spread stops allows enough susceptible individuals to persist until conditions are ripe again for an outbreak.)


So...the answer to your question is that how quickly the virus spreads after full re-opening occurs will vary a lot from one location to the next, mainly depending on how many people are vaccinated or have been naturally infected, but also of course affected by factors such as climate and the degree to which voluntary masking/distancing continues to occur. And of course, at some point, even without restrictions disease spread will slow down as the number of susceptible individuals goes down, although if this occurs via natural immunity it will come at a very high cost. (And guarantees endemic circulation of COVID.)

Edited by Jason
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In the rush to get people fully vaxed to stop the spread of Delta, there is a risk that vaccine protection becomes impaired. All vaccines including mRNA need to be >8 weeks apart and preferably 12.

 

Quote

“There is very good immunological and vaccine effectiveness evidence that the longer you leave that second dose the better for Pfizer and eight weeks seems to be a reasonable compromise.”

 

 

Edited by AndyK
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1 hour ago, Chicago said:

So many butthurt kids complaining about needing vaccine passports to enter nightclubs. I could shower in their bitter tears. 

But muh freedum they are saying 

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2 hours ago, Chicago said:

So many butthurt kids complaining about needing vaccine passports to enter nightclubs. I could shower in their bitter tears. 

Look what happened to vaccine bookings  in France when the passports were announced....

 

Antivaxxers are all mouth.:hahaha:

 

 

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21 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Look what happened to vaccine bookings  in France when the passports were announced....

 

Antivaxxers are all mouth.:hahaha:

 

 

Oh mate yeah I know. Its just teenagers trying to impress their dumb teenage friends by pretending to be smarter than their 'stoopid government advisors" 

 

Fuck em

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1 hour ago, Reddroast said:

But muh freedum they are saying 

I know I'm wrong here, but the older I get, the more I dislike democracy. Why should an educated persons opinion be just as valuable as an ignorant one.

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There was one single seeding of delta in Sydney, most likely from a FedEx freight crew, to an unvaccinated (waiting for Pfizer) transport driver. Greater Sydney is now in the strictest lockdown of the whole pandemic and there have now been 1418 cases in NSW plus more in Victoria which is also in lockdown. Last night South Australia also went into lockdown with a handful of cases. All from 1 limo driver. In South Australia you can’t travel beyond 2.5km for exercise. 

 

Fun fact

 

By the end of this week NSW will have carried out more COVID tests then then population of the state during the whole pandemic. 

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People.... do you all realize that you are going to get sick again?  That there will be flu seasons and COVID is never going away?  Do we all realize that vaccinated are at an extremely low risk of serious illness?  

 

The world has gone mad.  Idiot anti-vaxxers that refuse to take vaccines and also way too many people terrified the other way and under the impression that COVID must be eradicated before normal life resumes.  

 

We must get back to living life, and the vaccinated can do that and more.  The unvaccinated (who have voluntarily chosen not to take it) can and should have whatever bad things happen to them.  

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2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

People.... do you all realize that you are going to get sick again?  That there will be flu seasons and COVID is never going away?  Do we all realize that vaccinated are at an extremely low risk of serious illness?  

 

The world has gone mad.  Idiot anti-vaxxers that refuse to take vaccines and also way too many people terrified the other way and under the impression that COVID must be eradicated before normal life resumes.  

 

We must get back to living life, and the vaccinated can do that and more.  The unvaccinated (who have voluntarily chosen not to take it) can and should have whatever bad things happen to them.  

Not everyone is vaccinated, particularly in Asia, Oceania and Africa where the vaccine is still not available to any adult unlike in the US and Europe. Children are still not vaccinated in the vast majority fo the world. 

 

This seems a bit tone deaf honestly (same as what you keep on posting with certainty that no movies will get delayed, which I'm not so sure due to this being a WORLDWIDE pandemic) eventually we will get to a point where most are vaccinated (and get subsequent boosters) but that is very far away in some places globally. 

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Current vaccine situation in Australia.

 

The vaccine split so far is probably about AZ 60:40 Pfizer. AZ is manufactured here at the rate of 1 million doses per week (although apparently this has dropped in recent weeks) and Pfizer deliveries have mostly been around 350k per week but this week and going forward are 1 million per week and hitting 2 million per week in September. Moderna vaccine is starting in September as well at 1 million per week.

 

We have a "waiting for Pfizer" cohort here as only AZ is available for those over 60 due to the limited Pfizer supply. This means there's millions of AZ doses sitting in fridges around Australia which we are now sending to the South Pacific and Indonesia. Vaccines are currently available to those over the age of 40.

 

All those over 16 who want to be vaccinated should be vaccinated by sometime in December, possibly earlier if Pfizer supply ramps up more quickly.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/indonesia-australia-aid-astrazeneca-vaccines-covid/100275938

 

Image

Image

 

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1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

People.... do you all realize that you are going to get sick again?  That there will be flu seasons and COVID is never going away?  Do we all realize that vaccinated are at an extremely low risk of serious illness?  

 

The world has gone mad.  Idiot anti-vaxxers that refuse to take vaccines and also way too many people terrified the other way and under the impression that COVID must be eradicated before normal life resumes.  

 

We must get back to living life, and the vaccinated can do that and more.  The unvaccinated (who have voluntarily chosen not to take it) can and should have whatever bad things happen to them.  

 

Many people understand that Covid can't just disappear into magic smoke. People want to and have been looking forward to going back to normal life. UK has removed restrictions just as cases have begin to skyrocket with limited resistance, there were people partying in the hundreds of thousands and sticking flares up their ass just last week. People are ready.

 

The world hasn't gone mad. It's always been mad, we just never had social media to amplify the madness in the past.

Edited by Chicago
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9 hours ago, DeeCee said:

Current vaccine situation in Australia.

 

The vaccine split so far is probably about AZ 60:40 Pfizer. AZ is manufactured here at the rate of 1 million doses per week (although apparently this has dropped in recent weeks) and Pfizer deliveries have mostly been around 350k per week but this week and going forward are 1 million per week and hitting 2 million per week in September. Moderna vaccine is starting in September as well at 1 million per week.

 

We have a "waiting for Pfizer" cohort here as only AZ is available for those over 60 due to the limited Pfizer supply. This means there's millions of AZ doses sitting in fridges around Australia which we are now sending to the South Pacific and Indonesia. Vaccines are currently available to those over the age of 40.

 

All those over 16 who want to be vaccinated should be vaccinated by sometime in December, possibly earlier if Pfizer supply ramps up more quickly.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/indonesia-australia-aid-astrazeneca-vaccines-covid/100275938

 

Image

Image

 

 

Vaccine jabs have hit a brick wall here in the UK and the USA.

 

I guess the real aim here was to get as many jabs in arms over the winter period when infections were highest and that was a success.

 

This last bit of getting younger cohorts done is proving more difficult, many they think they are invincible and dont need it,.

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