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5 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I guess we’ll have to see what happens after Sturgis. 

 

There is that, but with vaccine mandates accelerating both in the public and private sector, do think there is gonna be downward pressure on new cases/hospitalizations.

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12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

There is that, but with vaccine mandates accelerating both in the public and private sector, do think there is gonna be downward pressure on new cases/hospitalizations.

 

Well, you have positives (increased vaccination) with negatives (back to school, decreased sunlight/heat/humidity for vast parts of the US)...so the next few weeks can probably go either way as far as cases...

 

Although hospitalizations and deaths hopefully keep the downswing...

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Well, it appears that the drop in seven-day average was some sort of error and the CDC data now matches decently well with the Worldometer trend...

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27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

There is that, but with vaccine mandates accelerating both in the public and private sector, do think there is gonna be downward pressure on new cases/hospitalizations.

Except in Florida and Texas. They are screwed thanks to the stupidity of the state govenment.

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Catching up on testing (which had been woefully inadequate for July) makes the reported cases metric a little tricky. % positive has already peaked and it’s likely the same is true for new daily infections.I would estimate one more week until more tuned in experts publicly display confidence about that and then maybe two more until it trickles in public consciousness — so we,re going to be cutting things pretty tight with Shang-Chi.

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Just now, dudalb said:

Except in Florida and Texas. They are screwed thanks to the stupidity of the state govenment.

 

 

State laws against businesses (i.e. the private sector) deciding to impose vaccine requirements for use of business are already being struck down by the courts.

 

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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

State laws against businesses (i.e. the private sector) deciding to impose vaccine requirements for use of business are already being struck down by the courts.

 

And in Florida De Santis's poll numbers are in freefall, now in the low 40's. Looks as if his idea that going anti mask was his road to the White House in 2024 might not be working very well.

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11 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Catching up on testing (which had been woefully inadequate for July) makes the reported cases metric a little tricky. % positive has already peaked and it’s likely the same is true for new daily infections.I would estimate one more week until more tuned in experts publicly display confidence about that and then maybe two more until it trickles in public consciousness — so we,re going to be cutting things pretty tight with Shang-Chi.

Does seem a bit early to claim that, we're not too far off the peak and haven't gotten a super consistent trendline yet. But I hope you are right. 

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3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Does seem a bit early to claim that, we're not too far off the peak and haven't gotten a super consistent trendline yet. But I hope you are right. 

Yeah, I mean, I’ll be happier/more confident to see it continue another few days.    
 

But this timing is pretty consistent with how the second derivative had been behaving, and we’ve seen enough waves now to know that that usually holds up.

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On 7/18/2021 at 1:48 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Good Twitter thread that you all should read:

 

 

I feel like a lot of people didn’t take Han’s advice.     
 

Considering that delta’s R is high enough that basically everyone in the country will get immunity one way or another, I’d say that the biggest culprit in the incoming wave of covid among children is the FDA for not approving it in under 12 in a timely manner.   
 

On the other hand it’s not really a threat to kids. They’ll spread it to some adults and some of the unvaccinated ones will die. I can’t pretend to muster up much distress over that at this point.

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You know, I've seen this referenced in MattY's feed a couple of times and I do wonder how much of an underlying issue this really is:

 

 

 

Scoff all you want about "Needle Fear", but I do think there hasn't been enough looking at underlying reasons for hesitancy/hostility to vaccines

 

This might be one of the ways that employer based mandates will help address things.  Folks will complain up a storm about a lot.  Some might even go to a protest or two on the weekend.  But we all gotta eat, right?

 

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

State laws against businesses (i.e. the private sector) deciding to impose vaccine requirements for use of business are already being struck down by the courts.

 

I have shares in this company lol

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i don't think we have passed peaked yet (though hopefully we are getting close) and i think we are likely headed to a double peak. What we are seeing now was basically seeded around July 4th. We have another Holiday in a few weeks and i expect that to increase numbers again. 

 

FWIW, This is the site I like right now to track across the US.

https://covidactnow.org/?s=21581084

 

I'm hoping late September/early October we will get a persistent downward trend. My gut right now is we might see some decline in late August/early September, but then I expect it to trend up again in mid-to-late September. As more and more schools go into session and more people start spending more time inside that will increase the likelihood of more cases spreading.

 

Also, correcting for what some others have implied on this thread. Getting a case of COVID is not the same as getting a vaccination. The anti-bodies will fade and you will be susceptible again. When you get the flu, does that keep you from getting the flu again? No it does not and imo COVID is pretty similar. The only way to give yourself longer protection is to get the shots. 

 

It stinks so bad that we are basically in the same spot we were last year at this time even with the vaccinations that have occurred to this point. 

 

What is scary about FL is that it is actually above the mean in the US with over 60% of its population having at least 1 shot and 50% being fully vaccinated. TX numbers are significantly lower than FL in terms of vaccinations so it will be interesting to watch if TX explodes as bad or worse than FL over the next week or two. 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You know, I've seen this referenced in MattY's feed a couple of times and I do wonder how much of an underlying issue this really is:

 

 

 

Scoff all you want about "Needle Fear", but I do think there hasn't been enough looking at underlying reasons for hesitancy/hostility to vaccines

 

This might be one of the ways that employer based mandates will help address things.  Folks will complain up a storm about a lot.  Some might even go to a protest or two on the weekend.  But we all gotta eat, right?

 

Needle fear is definitely a thing. 

While its easy, and not completely wrong, to go after the Trump crowd, it really is much more diffused than that.

The young are vaccinated at much lower rates than the old. Hispanics and Blacks are significantly less vaccinated than whites. 

 

Employer mandates would help more than anything else we could do. Polling so far has suggested somewhere in the 40-45% range disapprove of an employer mandating the vaccine, but data so far suggests only around 2% will leave their job over it. Employees will complain about having to do it, but most will do it.

 

There is also 120+ yrs of case law that supports local entities (governments, schools) and private businesses having the legal right to make decisions for public health reasons. Ultimately executive orders and laws that have been implemented in states like TX and FL are likely to be struck down in the court system. But that will take some time and in the meantime people are getting sick and dying. 

FL 7-day death avg is back over 120 and the highest it has been since the winter. It's hopsitalization and ICU usage is higher than at any point, the vaccinations are the only thing keeping FL from a complete disaster.

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

There is also 120+ yrs of case law that supports local entities (governments, schools) and private businesses having the legal right to make decisions for public health reasons. Ultimately executive orders and laws that have been implemented in states like TX and FL are likely to be struck down in the court system. But that will take some time and in the meantime people are getting sick and dying. 

 

Yes, most of it dates back to Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905).  The slight problem with that, and I do in this case mean slight, is that is around four or five Supreme Court eras ago.

 

Not entirely sure how the current SCOTUS would react to vaccine mandates, especially one still technically in EUA (though it appears that Pfizer might get full FDA approval in September, making that angle possibly moot).  I do think it is a slightly open question given we don't know all that much about the ideological outlook of this current court.  But current case law is solidly pro-vaccine requirement, yes.

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24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

May be need to publish death data by those who are vaccinated and those are not. If it isn't already done, may be that will motivate some folks.

This has been done. Not sure if that alone has really motivated some people, but the addition of surging cases and hospitalizations has done so for some. There have also been plenty of stories about those in the hospital that regretted not getting the vaccine. Still, the stubborn will and have made excuses.
 

The sad truth may be that some people don’t worry about getting vaccinated when cases and hospitalizations aren’t high. If they feel the risk is low because cases are low, they may not care to get vaccinated. So (hopefully when) cases/hospitalizations go down, less people may be inclined to get the jab.

 

Hopefully a FDA approval will convince those on the fence no matter how bad or good the current situation is.

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Everything in the US is about profit. You are ready to deny science and let half of a million people die for the economy. And all that money is largely in the hands of the 1%.

Look, I’m able to get this home internet speed plus cable TV plus a mobile plan for less than $7 per month. You guys in the US are so screwed by the rich.

 

qqSFMtk.png

 

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1 minute ago, bladels said:

Everything in the US is about profit.

Do you really thing the United State is some perfect meritocracy, absent of any bias (racism-sexism-nationalism, etc...), religious and cultural notion&force with everything down to bottom line ? I think it is much more complex than that most of the time.

 

8 minutes ago, bladels said:

You are ready to deny science and let half of a million people die for the economy.

I am not sure who is there, but I doubt many Americans denying vaccine efficacity or not getting vaccinated in the USA is doing for the economy.

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