Weekend Thread - Odin Jr Sat #s - Bad Boys 10, 1917 5.4, Dolittle 4.2, Jumanji 3.2, Gretel 2.5, Rhythm 1.05

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, misafeco said:

overseas audience is racist. 

On sidenote, yeah OS audience is Racist also. India, with no white people or China if you say, are racists af against Black people. Not like violence racists but Black lead won't do much.

 

But...

You won't see Black nations taking much Interest in Indian/Chinese films as well and Black lead films overperform massively. So Blacks are also Racists.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, a2k said:

450 ww for BB3 possible (5x the prod budget with very healthy dom %). Even with Will Smith's backend Sony should make a profit this time around .

When you have $100mn budget, you need $350mn boxoffice worldwide to Break even considering good TV numbers and Home Entertainment.

 

The additional $100mn it will make, Sony will be getting $25-30mn after Taxes.

[charlie Jatinder]

2.5

1.65

1.5

 

Jumanji 1.2

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

When you have $100mn budget, you need $350mn boxoffice worldwide to Break even considering good TV numbers and Home Entertainment.

 

The additional $100mn it will make, Sony will be getting $25-30mn after Taxes.

Hugely depend of the nature of both leads deal.

 

That made a little bit of money:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2907801089/

 

Under 300M, international heavy with no $100m domestic bonus kicking in, net budget over 120M.

 

If $100M budget movie need $350M at the box office, how much Once Upon a Time in Hollywood giving 25-30% of the gross need, around 525m ? 800M to make a good profit ?

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by Barnack

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Hugely depend of the nature of both leads deal.

 

That made a little bit of money:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2907801089/

 

Under 300M, international heavy with no $100m domestic bonus kicking in, net budget over 120M.

 

If $100M budget movie need $350M at the box office, how much Once Upon a Time in Hollywood giving 25-30% of the gross need, around 525m ? 800M to make a good profit ?

 

It's the release cost that determine + backend deals. Though it depend on various other factors, like where the money is actually grossed, but making a general case. A $100mn budget film, would spent $75mn plus on Worldwide release. 

Assuming TV and Home Entertainment take care of Remurenations and some other overheads & part of theatrical release.

 

A film basically need to earn $150mn from Theatrical Share.

 

Domestic as we know is 55%, Overseas is usually 40% while China is 20-21%.

Assuming 30:60:10 ratio, that will work out $350mn.

 

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by Jedi Jat

[Barnack]

40 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Assuming 30:60:10 ratio, that will work out $350mn.

 

That a generous intl multiplier for Bad Boys 3.

 

40 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Assuming TV and Home Entertainment take care of Remurenations and some other overheads & part of theatrical release.

Is it not where still most of the revenues come from ? It is not really taking care, it is where most of the money tend to be in that genre of title/box office performance.

 

For example Liongates in 2019 (http://investors.lionsgate.com/~/media/Files/L/LionsGate-IR/annual-reports/2019-annual-report.pdf), there feature film divisions revenues breakdown looked like this

 

Theatrical: 14.7%

Home ent: 40.4%

Television: 18.7%

Intl sale: 23.3%

Other: 2.8%

 

Domestic alone would look like:

Theatrical: 19.15%

Home ent: 52.7%

TV: 24.38%

Other: 3.6%

 

(excluding the direct to dvd or acquired for home video release).look like this

Theatrical: 164.5M (17.5%)

Home Ent: 265.6M

TV: 209M

intl; 260.8M

Other: 36M

 

 

 

 

 

They are domestic alone, other studio that have box office in market with lower home ent. business will probably be more in the 35% type of range, but a 100M movie depending on how much bonus it give away will tend to need to generate about 250-275M to break even (75 to 110M PA + other cost)

 

If it make 35% of it's revenues from theater (for something strong domestic like Bad Boys), it can reach it by grossing 88M to 96M in theatrical revenues, 110M if post theatrical do not go well, with a 53% domestic, 38% intl, 22% from china, with a strong domestic and not reliance on China, you can reach that with a 200M BO (thus the double your budget rules). 

 

Obviously if the cast got $60M in bonus and upped the actual budget to $160M if change the formula quite a bit.

 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by Barnack

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Barnack said:

That a generous intl multiplier for Bad Boys 3.

Was talking about general rule.

[sfran43]

Welp! I wonder if they can secure another month?🤔

 

 

[Legion Again]

Hellboy

[kitik]

Dear China, 

 

It's okay if you stop waiting for Hellboy. If there's no room in your upcoming condensed theater schedule, you can just go ahead and skip it entirely.

 

Sincerely, 

Movie Fans of the World

[Legion Again]

Hey, China’s taste in CBMs can be... unpredictable

 

Hellboy is coming for that 400M WW

[charlie Jatinder]

Bad Boys for Life	2.807
Dolittle	1.513
1917	1.426
Jumanji: The Next Level	1.193
Gretel & Hansel	1.021
The Gentlemen	0.802
Little Women	0.671
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	0.642
The Turning	0.506
Frozen 2	0.455
The Rhythm Section	0.406
Knives Out	0.386
Just Mercy	0.334
Jojo Rabbit	0.292
Spies in Disguise	0.284
Parasite	0.280
Ford v. Ferrari	0.092
Like a Boss	0.079
Underwater	0.068
Uncut Gems	0.062

Edited February 3, 2020 by Jedi Jat

[Legion Again]

Wow, Gentlemen and Knives got well and truly gutted by the SuperBowl. Those Sundays are down like 33% vs estimates.   
 

Rhythm Section is making top 10 unfortunately, and just 9 consecutive top 10s for KO instead of 11.

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 1917 cannot be fucking stop. Also, insane hold for Bad Boys.

 

https://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_30_janeiro_a_2_fevereiro_2020_124525e38063a42c6b.pdf

 

Strong openings for Jojo Rabbit and Little Woman. Mediocre starts for The Turning and J'Accuse.

[Bart Allen]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 1917 cannot be fucking stop. Also, insane hold for Bad Boys.

 

https://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_30_janeiro_a_2_fevereiro_2020_124525e38063a42c6b.pdf

 

Strong openings for Jojo Rabbit and Little Woman. Mediocre starts for The Turning and J'Accuse.

Wait Joker has 950 theatre showings, as Box Office Mojo has yet to update that ~ But yeah, 1917 isn't going to be stopped - soon at least. But any news on whether Rise of Skywalker will go beyond Toy Story 4 or Joker worldwide?

[kitik]

Now that you kiddos have seen the Super Bowl spots for this year, feel free to update your top ten most anticipated movies of the next 12 months over in the Most Anticipated Films thread.

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films/page/394/#comments

 

 

Unfortunately, WandaVision and Falcon and the Winter Soldier are not eligible.

[Legion Again]

25 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

Unfortunately, WandaVision and Falcon and the Winter Soldier are not eligible

Brb, updating

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by sfran43

[sfran43]