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Weekend Thread | Birds of Prey $33.25M Weekend

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4 minutes ago, lor15 said:

Oh deadline...

This isn't a lol Deadline though. Their projections match the tracking thread.

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...Well, as far as my club is concerned 

Edited by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

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Well this is going to be a whole lot of "they hate men feminist propaganda blah blah"   followed by "men don't go to female led movies etc.."  

 

and it'll all be toxic.   Not here,  just assuming how Twitter will go. 

Edited by Johnny Tran
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5 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Well this is going to be a whole lot of "they hate men feminist propaganda blah blah"   followed by "men don't go to female led movies etc.."  

 

and it'll all be toxic.   Not here,  just assuming how Twitter will go. 

Even if this does well in the end, that toxic stuff on twitter will not go away. Those people will move on to another piece of media to have an outrage over. 

Edited by Galactic Specter

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how good is this for a 50M OW? Shazam made 53M from a 5.9M that started on 4PM but this is R-rated.. 

 

 

Edited by RealLyre
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25 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

how good is this for a 50M OW? Shazam made 53M from a 5.9M that started on 4PM but this is R-rated.. 

 

 

Joker did 7.2x it's 4pm previews over ow.

Shazam did 9x, was not a spin-off and was family friendly.

So 8x at most for BOP? 4-5x gives 32-40 ow.

Edited by a2k
Math Error
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12 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

how good is this for a 50M OW? Shazam made 53M from a 5.9M that started on 4PM but this is R-rated.. 

Movie with 6 PM preview start multiplier (removing the family movie like Beast-Frozen 2):

 

BvS: 5.993

Captain Marvel: 7.412

Suicide Squad: 6.521

Solo: 5.987

Justice League: 7.219

Ant-Man: 6.6

Fan Beast: 8.5

Dark Phoenix: 6.6

 

It look like a 8x multiplier for that genre would be really good and that a 6.5 to 7.5 could happen. Joker did 7.233.

 

It is hard to imagine too if it is a on the lower of that $4M, maybe it is not playing like an usual franchise movie/SH entry.

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9 minutes ago, a2k said:

So 8x at most for BOP? 4-5x gives 40-45 ow.

That 4-5M range give an at most 32M to 40M OW if I understand correctly, with a 26M to 33M window being possible.

 

4*8 = 32

5*8 = 40

 

It will probably end up at 5.5 or not play like the usual SH affair multi wise, because the low end of those look quite dire if it end up being a domestic heavy title for an well received spin of of an 700M+ movie.

Edited by Barnack
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9 minutes ago, a2k said:

So 8x at most for BOP? 4-5x gives 40-45 ow.

8x4 32

8x5 40

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I thought Birds of Prey had big breakout potential a while ago but it just never materialized for whatever reason. Suicide Squad left a sour taste in too many people's mouths, I guess. At least even with a (hopefully) $40-45M opening the drop next weekend shouldn't be that severe with it being a 4 day holiday (with Valentine's Day also boosting next Friday). 

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Birds of Prey was about as good as Suicide Squad was bad. Hopefully the legs reflect it, cause it seems the ow is paying for the Squads sins.

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Seems like Harley Quinn might be too niche for general audiences. I thought this had potential for 80m+ at one point.

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Not that this is a particularly rigorous or consistent or predictively useful ratio, but I had some time to kill:

MoS x13.85 previews to total

BvS x11.9

SS x15.85

WW x37.5

JL x17.6

AQM x35.2

SHZ x23.8

Joker x25.2  

 

Doubt this replicates the WOM summer fueled WW or Christmas fueled AQM. OTOH with previews low shouldn’t be in the super low zone either. Maybe 20-30x for 90-135 or so?

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The trailers didn't hook people like Suicide Squad did.

 

It doesn't matter if BOP is better made.

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I usually think WB trailers are awesome.  The Birds of Prey trailers were damn fucking terrible. I was honestly surprised to see so many people loving the movie so instead of me catching this "whenever"  we are going sometime this weekend...  

 

In my case,  WOM helped..  not sure if will be enough for the general audience. 

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