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Weekend Thread | Birds of Prey $33.25M Weekend

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2 hours ago, Litio said:

The not cool insignia is for you saying people trust in DC. I will switch to 'WTF' if you prefer.
What I see is that if people trusted in DC, Shazam and Birds of Prey would have a bigger box office. People went to see WW, Joker and Aquaman because of the buzz the films were having and because of word of mouth and good reviews. Brand films get more buzz than original films. It doesn't mean that people trust in DC.

 

I think people stayed away from this movie though not because they don't trust DC comics but because the trailers look pretty prosaic. That's just my opinion but I will see pretty much any movie released. Seriously I will go see movies that really I have no interest in just because its a movie. I have no desire to see this movie. It has nothing to do with whether it's Marvel or DC or universal studios or Paramount or whatever. The trailers did nothing for me and I don't think Harley Quinn is an interesting character. So there's that.

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Birds of Prey bombed in India. India is one of the most superhero friendly market. 

All recent superhero movies from DC and marvel were hit to blockbuster. 

BOP is no show. It's like WB forgot India exist. 

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7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Eh yes lol. 
 

People need to calm down 😂.
 

The reaction on here would make you think this was going to be a Terminator/Dark Phoenix/Dolittle level money loser. 
 

$200m worldwide and BOP has recouped its budget. Ancillaries will cover marketing (where the audience who was interested can actually watch it). 
 

This is an underperformer. It isn’t a financial disaster. 

 

I mean it's not gonna lose em' money but they were working with house money here. An underperformer is about as mild phrasing as financial disaster would be an exaggeration.

 

Spoiler

Also I suck at OS projections

 

Edited by MrPink

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31 minutes ago, DlAMONDZ said:

This contradicts scoopers who said test screenings went well before and after the reshoots doesn't it?

From the get-go those reports struck me as studio PR.

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1 minute ago, Serpico Jones said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Chad Stahelski directed most of the reshoots.

he's the second unit director of the film.

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Figured it wouldn't do that great 

Well Sonic will be my first 2020 film 

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There's really no positive spin you can really put on it. Warner Bros superhero movies have been on an absolute roll, back-to-back billion dollar movies of characters that on their own weren't expected to be popular at all. And then Bombs of Prey comes out and just straight up does poorly.

 

this could potentially end up at, what a -40% drop from Shazam.

That's pretty bad. Given that Harley Quinn is a known character in this universe and the previous Margot Robbie Harley Quinn movie made $750M. to plummet to 200-250m is shite. There's no way around it. sorry.

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+30% bump from true fri and 30% drop on sun gives 32 weekend to BOP.

32-33 * 2.75-2.85x = 88-94 dom

 

CM was 2.79x after a huge ow. It did get boosted by AEG else was looking at 400-410 for 2.61-2.67x multi. The high-end of 2.85x I used for BOP looks generous.

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33 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Not just well, extremely well! Yeah, it happens every time. It had 3 or 4 weeks of reshoots which is more than just pickups.

Did it? Reshoots felt like they didn't last more than 2 weeks or so

 

Anyway. I'll take this as good news for WW84 tho

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with so much of the audience being under 25 it's obvious that making it rated R was a mistake lolol 

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4 minutes ago, a2k said:

+30% bump from true fri and 30% drop on sun gives 32 weekend to BOP.

32-33 * 2.75-2.85x = 88-94 dom

 

CM was 2.79x after a huge ow. It did get boosted by AEG else was looking at 400-410 for 2.61-2.67x multi. The high-end of 2.85x I used for BOP looks generous.

2.85x will happen. February is barren no, direct competition. 

Next week is Valentine. 

I think even 3x can happen. 

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A lot of overreactions in this thread. We don’t really know which way this film is going to go. Sure WOM can push it to have good legs but I feel like a lot of people don’t realize that WOM doesn’t help a movie at the box office if people have no interest in seeing it to begin with. I’m not saying that’s what’s going to happen with BOP but what I’m saying is good reviews and good WOM doesn’t always translate to box office results. Having said that, I think BOP having a soft opening puts it in a better position to develop strong legs than the typical CBM

 

Let’s see how next weekend goes since it is a holiday weekend which should help the movie before sending the film to the graveyard after *two days* at the box office. 

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2 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

2.85x will happen. February is barren no, direct competition. 

Next week is Valentine. 

I think even 3x can happen. 

I highly doubt both. 

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4 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I mean it's not gonna lose em' money but they were working with house money here. An underperformer is about as mild phrasing as financial disaster would be an exaggeration.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

It could very well be a money loser, if only slightly. I mentioned it already on this forum, but BOP's budget is not 84.5m. It just goes to show how little trades understand movie budgets. BOP's after tax budget on the cali incentive site was 84.5m. On that same site Captain Marvel's after tax budget was 116m http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/CA-Tax-Credit-Progress-Report-2019.pdf

Neither figure includes post-production costs and other overages. Clearly BOP's post was not as expensive as that for Cap M, but its like people all of a sudden think post is only expensive for CGI heavy movies. While BOP captured a lot more in the frame than did Cap M, there are so many hidden costs in post nowadays. Even a movie like BOP has a fair amount of special effects shots and requires a lot of CGI touch ups. Even if post was only 1/3 that of Cap M, BOP's budget is still at around 100m. If people use this cali incentive site for their info (as BOM and others do) then they're implicitly accepting Cap M's budget at 116m

Additionally, there isn't a lot of room to save money on P&A since such a large proportion of these costs are fixed. The differences in P&A costs between a massive and mid-budget movie is often only around 50%. BOP is still an event flick, so its hard to see how the marketing would be under 100m. So with about 200m budget + P&A (and that's relatively conservative for P&A, Deadline pegged Shazam's P&A at 120m and WB likely allotted the same amount of money to both films) I think BOP will need at least between 250m - 275m WW to break even, and thats with solid ancilliaries (assuming people who skipped out on BOP in theaters will catch it as a rental/streamer)

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9 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I mean it's not gonna lose em' money but they were working with house money here. An underperformer is about as mild phrasing as financial disaster would be an exaggeration.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Could be close if BOP does under $90m domestic.

 

$45m O/S  with a 2.25 multi excluding Japan - $101m.   

$45m x 2.5 = $112m 

 

I think Shazam did near a 2.6 with AEG slicing off it's legs

 

This has less competition but it's not family skewing which my offset it.

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2 minutes ago, ban1o said:

with so much of the audience being under 25 it's obvious that making it rated R was a mistake lolol 

SS, DP1, DP2-R, Joker range from 318-362 dom so it's tough to simply say that was a factor. Had the movie opened to 45 it would be worth entertaining that debate, but with such abysmal opening there ought to be a slew of significant mistakes that cratered the boxoffice.

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